Predicting Gift of the Traveler Collectables
rkubik
I really think they will shift back to "normal things" instead of the obscure stuff. I found it funny people were buying the Man roots the other day for so much. I farmed for 2.5 hours and got them all and I really didn't even try most of the time I was watching TV. My prediction is they will make the items easier to obtain but put Nicholas in some more obscure areas that take awhile ot get to especially if you do not have all the areas in a chapter unlocked. But then again people will just pay for a run to wherever he is at. Still fun addition to the game.
im no farmer
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Originally Posted by tasha_darke
That'll be tears from the crying that they weren't healed then
In all seriousness though, I think we can expect things like vials of ink to turn up. As for drops, easy ones are out. I'd actually like it to be something really obscure that people don't collect, I've felt bad having 3 of the 4 items he wanted stashed around accounts. |
BJuno
I am sure someday he will be deep in FOW asking for shards!
Nanood
I would like to see him do a solid month of cloth collecting.
Hyper Cutter
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Originally Posted by doomfodder
Plague Remedies (from the Naga Pelt Collectors in Cantha)
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Darcy
How about something like a White Mantle Badge, which has no collector. Or any of the other non-collector trophies that are easily accessible (as in NOT from FoW or UW). http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Categ...ector_trophies
doomfodder
I wonder when the traveler will want zoins? They currently aren't trade-able items, so it would force ppl to do zquest to earn the zoins to trade for gifts. Guess that'll B the day he spawns in the Menagerie to urge ppl to at least visit the place...
N E D M
my money is on tundra giant bracers
crazybanshee
I doubt it'll ever be anything really common again like plague idols or charr carvings. Who knows. It's probably a random generator with everything in it, just weighted towards rarer things. I suspect the first item (red iris flowers) was deliberately chosen to make it super easy to get gifts and introduce lots of new items all at once.
Crimso
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Originally Posted by crazybanshee
I doubt it'll ever be anything really common again like plague idols or charr carvings. Who knows. It's probably a random generator with everything in it, just weighted towards rarer things. I suspect the first item (red iris flowers) was deliberately chosen to make it super easy to get gifts and introduce lots of new items all at once.
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Maybe he'll ask for Clay Bricks.
MithranArkanere
Don't forget gold... when will he ask for a 'donation' of 15k for the poor Krytan orphans? XD
Puddin Cheeks
Clay Bricks, FTW!!!!!!
BenjZee
but they don't even exist anymore..
N E D M
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Originally Posted by SmithyBen
but they don't even exist anymore..
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Qing Guang
No, they almost existed.
Anyway, I think he's going after:
a) Collectorless items (RIFs, etc - don't merch those remains from UW)
b) Depreciated mats (Linen was nigh worthless before Nicky - stockpile Charcoal NOW)
c) Useless quest items you can get a million of (Juni Berries, etc - that's right, get to picking Swamp Flowers soon's ye can)
d) Less-used consumables? (ie less efficient ones - why eat an MRC when you could have a Creme Brulee? Time to buy some rice wine... this is more speculative though)
Anyway, I think he's going after:
a) Collectorless items (RIFs, etc - don't merch those remains from UW)
b) Depreciated mats (Linen was nigh worthless before Nicky - stockpile Charcoal NOW)
c) Useless quest items you can get a million of (Juni Berries, etc - that's right, get to picking Swamp Flowers soon's ye can)
d) Less-used consumables? (ie less efficient ones - why eat an MRC when you could have a Creme Brulee? Time to buy some rice wine... this is more speculative though)
zwei2stein
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Originally Posted by rkubik
I really think they will shift back to "normal things" instead of the obscure stuff. I found it funny people were buying the Man roots the other day for so much. I farmed for 2.5 hours and got them all and I really didn't even try most of the time I was watching TV. My prediction is they will make the items easier to obtain but put Nicholas in some more obscure areas that take awhile ot get to especially if you do not have all the areas in a chapter unlocked. But then again people will just pay for a run to wherever he is at. Still fun addition to the game.
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Stop The Storm
ive just been keeping every collectable that enemies drop while vanquishing.
might seem a little OTT, but if one of them ever pops up ill have a head start
might seem a little OTT, but if one of them ever pops up ill have a head start
Nodakim
Decayed Orr Emblem
TheBuck
lets go Zkeys!
MithranArkanere
-50 grim cestas, XD.
Arduin
Let's go full circle: Gifts of the Huntsman
doomfodder
MayB this reply is better off in sardelac... but...
a prediction system for what the traveler will want next & where he'll be. 5 gifts for guessing item correctly, 5 gifts for guessing where (ZONE only) correctly, + 10 bonus gifts for guessing both correctly
a prediction system for what the traveler will want next & where he'll be. 5 gifts for guessing item correctly, 5 gifts for guessing where (ZONE only) correctly, + 10 bonus gifts for guessing both correctly
bursta91
Wind jade orbs
Deadshot Seven
vabbian wine.
Shadow Slave
Almost definitely, at some point, Dark Remains.
cataphract
I'm pretty sure he won't be collecting Warden Horns until I merch both stacks.
ebstjohn
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Originally Posted by Daesu
Next one would be in EOTN and either Destroyer cores or Superior Charr Carvings.
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There doesn't appear to be a logical path or trend to his locations.
Hyper Cutter
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Originally Posted by ebstjohn
This was amazingly close.
There doesn't appear to be a logical path or trend to his locations. |
doomfodder
... for at least guessing an FOW collectable item (not dark remains tho SRY)
Still, I've noticed that no one is predicting where he'll B, just the collectable.
HMMM, must B cause of the thread title ????
Oh well, appearance location should b part of this thread too IMO.
Still, I've noticed that no one is predicting where he'll B, just the collectable.
HMMM, must B cause of the thread title ????
Oh well, appearance location should b part of this thread too IMO.
Esprit
If the vanquishing page on wiki is correct, there are a total of 136 explorable areas, which means is less than a 1% chance to guess correctly. Of course your chances go up each week. But, you would not see a full 1% chance until almost 3/4's of a year later. And your chances only go up assuming Anet removes the area from a list for a full rotation or throws it in later (because he could show up in the same area, just different location).
As for guessing items, there are probably hundreds of items that could be the collectable each week.
So good luck, and congrats to whomever gets the lucky guess each week.
As for guessing items, there are probably hundreds of items that could be the collectable each week.
So good luck, and congrats to whomever gets the lucky guess each week.
Divine Ashes
So it looks like he's been going from Tyria to Cantha to Elona to GWEN...since this week is Tyria again, I'm guessing he'll end up somewhere in Cantha. Guessing what he wants is far more difficult, since last he was in Cantha he wanted an Elonian item (Juni berries). It really could be anything, but I'm gonna guess Gold Crimson Skull Coins as a present to Togo :P, and that he'll be in the mountainous area outside of Shing Jea 
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BrettM
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Originally Posted by Divine Ashes
So it looks like he's been going from Tyria to Cantha to Elona to GWEN...since this week is Tyria again, I'm guessing he'll end up somewhere in Cantha.
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I don't think it's a simple rotation. But I do wonder how fancy they got with the selection algorithm. It could be a simple random selection from among all candidate spawning points. However they might weight the chances according to such factors as the most recent appearance on a continent. I would hope they at least include code so that he doesn't spawn twice in the same location or even the same explorable (assuming there are 2 or more possible spawning points in at least some of the bigger explorables).
We have far too little data to figure anything out at this point. It's still just an assumption that there is even any programmed randomness involved at all. Perhaps each week Linsey decides where he will go, giggling gleefully as she avoids any area that has been the subject of speculation here. Or maybe some intern throws a dart at a map of the Tyria world.
tmakinen
I don't think that the chosen location + collectable is (algorithmically) random at all. There are several pieces of evidence suggesting that the weekly pair is hand picked. There is always a small story concerning the collectable that ties it to the surroundings - it would take more effort to design a 'random story generator' with enough data on local lore than just fix the pair by hand. Also, Nicholas is right now standing in front of a statue of Balthazar and asking for collectables from FoW. I don't believe that random quest generators are that good.
Shasgaliel
my bet for the next collectible item is: encrypted charr battle plans....
Tom Swift
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Originally Posted by Shasgaliel
my bet for the next collectible item is: encrypted charr battle plans....
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got 20 of them in storage because i can't be bothered to do the quest (already have max rep) and I don't like throwing them away.
But it will probably be....
geodes.
Malice Black
A copy of Playboy and a box of tissues.
Olof
Black Pearls next week.
Longasc
I wonder if we cannot derive this information from the GW.DAT.
gw_poster
It seems as though the last two weeks' items have been harder to collect for average players, so methinks anet might come back round to something easier (but not as easy as linen, lol). My picks for next week, sorted by campaign:
Proph - Dessicated Hydra Claws
Factions - Oni Claw
NF - Diamond Djinn Essence
EOTN - Patch of Simian Fur
Disclaimer: I've got 8 Oni Claws
Proph - Dessicated Hydra Claws
Factions - Oni Claw
NF - Diamond Djinn Essence
EOTN - Patch of Simian Fur
Disclaimer: I've got 8 Oni Claws
BrettM
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Originally Posted by tmakinen
I don't think that the chosen location + collectable is (algorithmically) random at all. There are several pieces of evidence suggesting that the weekly pair is hand picked. There is always a small story concerning the collectable that ties it to the surroundings - it would take more effort to design a 'random story generator' with enough data on local lore than just fix the pair by hand. Also, Nicholas is right now standing in front of a statue of Balthazar and asking for collectables from FoW. I don't believe that random quest generators are that good.
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I suspect they have many of these location-story-collectable sets already made up. Dialog takes time to localize, and I would be surprised to learn that they are doing this on the fly each week, where one minor flub in the schedule could throw everything off. (The translator for Italian was out sick. The boss who needs to approve this is on vacation. Oops, the dog ate the script.) It would make more sense to have created and localized enough scenarios in advance to last several months, or longer, before Nick the Traveler made his first appearance.
Given a pre-defined list of scenarios, then they have a choice of putting them in a fixed rotation, hand-selecting which one to use each week, or randomly selecting among them.
Pre-Searing Nick has a list of stories tied to collectables, and it appears that there is a more-or-less random selection made among these each day. There is probably some weighting involved based on the last time an item was requested, so he won't ask for the same thing two days in a row. There may be some weighting based on the difficulty in obtaining the item, so he asks for Red Iris Flowers less frequently than Spider Legs, but it's too soon to be sure.
Post-Searing Nick could work about the same way, with the minor added complexity of tying the story/collectable to a location. All that you would need to do is move him to the appropriate location whenever you selected the next story/collectable.