New Titles: Charmed/Hapless
7 pages • Page 5
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corner circle works out as as the best cause of the win/lose ratio, more losses less wins but when you do win its alot of tickets which should equal the amount of time you stayed on any other circle.
when i did it i started of with 5000 tickets. to go afk just to be on the safe side.
besides according to the calculations, these games are lose lose situation, only gain is the title.
sorta like the drunkard title. for the rich... lol
when i did it i started of with 5000 tickets. to go afk just to be on the safe side.
besides according to the calculations, these games are lose lose situation, only gain is the title.
sorta like the drunkard title. for the rich... lol
On the 3x3 board:
Corner: 55 + 15 + 15 = 85 (6 in 9 chance to lose)
Edge: 15 + 15+ 15 + 35 = 85 (5 in 9 chance to lose)
Middle: 25 + 15+ 15 + 15 +15 = 85 (4 in 9 chance to lose)
Corner:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
6 / 9 = losses per round = .66666 <----- fastest of 3x3 game to get losses
(10 * 9) - 85 = 5 tickets lost per 9 games
5 / 9 = .55555 tickets lost per round
Rounds required to earn charmed = 5294.1176470588235294117647058824 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 7500 ((5k / losses per round))
7500 rounds * tickets lost per round = 4166.6666666666666666666666666667 tickets lost while aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (62500 gp)
Edge:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
5 / 9 = losses per round = .555555
Middle:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
4 / 9 = losses per round = .444444
On the 4x4 board:
All points: 12 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + (0*9) = 30 won tickets (9/16 chance to lose)
30 / 16 = tickets won per round = 1.875
9 / 16 = losses per round = .5625
(2 * 16) - 30 = 2 tickets lost per 16 games
2 / 16 = 0.125 tickets lost per round
Rounds required to earn charmed = 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 8888.8888888888888888888888888889 ((5k / losses per round))
26,666.666666666666666666666666667 rounds * tickets lost per round = 3333.3333333333333333333333333325 tickets lost in aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (49999.999999999999999999999999988 gp)
If rounds average ((20 rounds * 8 sec) + 33 sec delay) / 20 rounds = 9.65sec
Time to get both titles on 3x3: 9.65 * 7500 / 60 / 60 = 20.104167 hours
Time to get both titles on 4x4: 9.65 * 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 / 60 / 60 = 71.481 hours
Analysis:
The 4x4 takes much longer.
The 4x4 costs about 13k less gold.
Someone mind double checking this? I question my math since I'm getting the lucky title so much slower then the unlucky one Thank skyfox for the fix!
Corner: 55 + 15 + 15 = 85 (6 in 9 chance to lose)
Edge: 15 + 15+ 15 + 35 = 85 (5 in 9 chance to lose)
Middle: 25 + 15+ 15 + 15 +15 = 85 (4 in 9 chance to lose)
Corner:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
6 / 9 = losses per round = .66666 <----- fastest of 3x3 game to get losses
(10 * 9) - 85 = 5 tickets lost per 9 games
5 / 9 = .55555 tickets lost per round
Rounds required to earn charmed = 5294.1176470588235294117647058824 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 7500 ((5k / losses per round))
7500 rounds * tickets lost per round = 4166.6666666666666666666666666667 tickets lost while aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (62500 gp)
Edge:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
5 / 9 = losses per round = .555555
Middle:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
4 / 9 = losses per round = .444444
On the 4x4 board:
All points: 12 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + (0*9) = 30 won tickets (9/16 chance to lose)
30 / 16 = tickets won per round = 1.875
9 / 16 = losses per round = .5625
(2 * 16) - 30 = 2 tickets lost per 16 games
2 / 16 = 0.125 tickets lost per round
Rounds required to earn charmed = 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 8888.8888888888888888888888888889 ((5k / losses per round))
26,666.666666666666666666666666667 rounds * tickets lost per round = 3333.3333333333333333333333333325 tickets lost in aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (49999.999999999999999999999999988 gp)
If rounds average ((20 rounds * 8 sec) + 33 sec delay) / 20 rounds = 9.65sec
Time to get both titles on 3x3: 9.65 * 7500 / 60 / 60 = 20.104167 hours
Time to get both titles on 4x4: 9.65 * 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 / 60 / 60 = 71.481 hours
Analysis:
The 4x4 takes much longer.
The 4x4 costs about 13k less gold.
Someone mind double checking this? I question my math since I'm getting the lucky title so much slower then the unlucky one Thank skyfox for the fix!
I just want to throw out a theory right now while we're all sitting AFK in an effort to get these titles: I'm thinking there's at least a fair chance that we won't be able to get both the Lucky and Unlucky titles. I'm wondering if, when we reach the (first?) threshold for achieving one of these titles, our progress on the other title will vanish. After all, how much sense would it make to be both "Lucky" and "Unlucky"?
Before anyone takes this too seriously, bear in mind that this is only a theory! We've got some people that are probably within 6 hours of achieving one of the titles, so hopefully we'll have some definitive answers soon.
And BTW, a big, "Thank you!" to all those who have been posting the statistical probabilites for these games!
Before anyone takes this too seriously, bear in mind that this is only a theory! We've got some people that are probably within 6 hours of achieving one of the titles, so hopefully we'll have some definitive answers soon.
And BTW, a big, "Thank you!" to all those who have been posting the statistical probabilites for these games!
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dragou Du Porzan
I just want to throw out a theory right now while we're all sitting AFK in an effort to get these titles: I'm thinking there's at least a fair chance that we won't be able to get both the Lucky and Unlucky titles. I'm wondering if, when we reach the (first?) threshold for achieving one of these titles, our progress on the other title will vanish. After all, how much sense would it make to be both "Lucky" and "Unlucky"?
Before anyone takes this too seriously, bear in mind that this is only a theory! We've got some people that are probably within 6 hours of achieving one of the titles, so hopefully we'll have some definitive answers soon. And BTW, a big, "Thank you!" to all those who have been posting the statistical probabilites for these games! |
And, I want to shoot down your theory. As of this point, I am 70% on the way to getting Lucky, but only 43% on the way to getting the Unlucky title, and I'm standing in the most unlucky spot in 9-ring. I think you'd have to be really lucky to get the Hapless title first. -_- I don't think they'd give us a title so improbable to get. =P
almost got 38k on the lucky title from sleeping afk in the middle, i moved to the corner now since my unlucky was laggin behind, 2k for it currently
i hope i get to be one of the first, since i got on the rings right when the news broke.
also keep in mind all this math states is averages and probabilitys, a persons indivudual rate will vairy somewhat.
i hope i get to be one of the first, since i got on the rings right when the news broke.
also keep in mind all this math states is averages and probabilitys, a persons indivudual rate will vairy somewhat.
s
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fate
Mercury Angel: Your note about earning both titles only talking about geting 42k tickets earned, which isn't enough for any title.
skyfox: Perfect math.... BUT! You failed you account for the fact that the hapless title actually takes longer then the lucky title. On the 3x3 board: Corner: 55 + 15 + 15 = 85 (6 in 9 chance to lose) Edge: 15 + 15+ 15 + 35 = 85 (5 in 9 chance to lose) Middle: 25 + 15+ 15 + 15 +15 = 85 (4 in 9 chance to lose) Corner: 85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round 6 / 9 = losses per round = .66666 <----- fastest of 3x3 game to get losses (10 * 9) - 85 = 5 tickets lost per 9 games 5 / 9 = .55555 tickets lost per round Rounds required to earn charmed = 5294.1176470588235294117647058824 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds)) Rounds required for Unlucky title = 7500 ((5k / losses per round)) 7500 rounds * tickets lost per round = 4166.6666666666666666666666666667 tickets lost while aquiring titles Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (62500 gp) Edge: 85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round 5 / 9 = losses per round = .555555 Middle: 85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round 4 / 9 = losses per round = .444444 On the 4x4 board: All points: 12 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + (0*9) = 30 won tickets (9/16 chance to lose) 30 / 16 = tickets won per round = 1.875 9 / 16 = losses per round = .5625 (2 * 16) - 30 = 2 tickets lost per 16 games 2 / 16 = 0.125 tickets lost per round Rounds required to earn charmed = 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds)) Rounds required for Unlucky title = 8888.8888888888888888888888888889 ((5k / losses per round)) 8888.8888888888888888888888888889 rounds * tickets lost per round = 1111.1111111111111111111111111111 tickets lost in aquiring titles Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (16666.666666666666666666666666665 gp) Analysis: The 4x4 takes slightly more then 2.13x time to get both titles. 3x3 is faster. The 4x4 costs about (1/3.75)th of the gold. 4x4 is cheaper Someone mind double checking this? I question my math since I'm getting the lucky title so much slower then the unlucky one |
if you only play 8889 games on the 4x4 board you cant get the charmed title - therefore you need 26667 games which gives: 26667 * 0.125 ~ 3334 tickets and thats 50k gold.
but as mentioned: same results and i think we both kept in mind that these titles require different amounts of games played.
one thing i was not thinking about was split strategys like playing 4000 games on the 3x3 and the rest on the 4x4 board. but if you keep in mind that you need more than 3.5 times longer on the 4x4 board and it is only 1.25 times cheaper i dont want to think about the details of a mixed gameplay.
nice calculation and greetings,
skyfox
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fate
Mercury Angel: Your note about earning both titles only talking about geting 42k tickets earned, which isn't enough for any title.
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4605 rounds of Nine Circles - 3039 losses (corner), 43471 tickets won
3486 rounds of Sixteen Circles - 1961 losses, 6536 tickets won
4605 rounds of Nine Circles, 9.44 tickets average per round, 66% of the rounds are losses: Comes out to be 43,471 tickets and 3039 losses
and then, 3486 rounds of Sixteen Circles, 1.875 tickets average per round, 56.25% of the rounds are losses: Comes out to be 6536 tickets, and 1961 losses
43,471+6536 = 50007 tickets combined
3039+1961 = 5000 losses combined
Where exactly did I make the error? >_>
Don't tell me it's something stupidly obvious T_T
Quote:
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Originally Posted by skyfox
i checked it - we have the same results, except you are wrong with the costs on the 4x4 board for getting both titles:
if you only play 8889 games on the 4x4 board you cant get the charmed title - therefore you need 26667 games which gives: 26667 * 0.125 ~ 3334 tickets and thats 50k gold. but as mentioned: same results and i think we both kept in mind that these titles require different amounts of games played. one thing i was not thinking about was split strategys like playing 4000 games on the 3x3 and the rest on the 4x4 board. but if you keep in mind that you need more than 3.5 times longer on the 4x4 board and it is only 1.25 times cheaper i dont want to think about the details of a mixed gameplay. nice calculation and greetings, skyfox |