Hours To MAX lucky

Hey guys. I am sure others have calculated the number of hours to max out luck but I did the math myself just to make sure. I discovered some surprising things. First, it takes around 700 hours of constant 9rings to get max lucky title of 2.5 million, and over 1000 hours to reach the max unluck title of 500000losses. This means that noone will be able to complete the titles in this festival. I wrote to guildwars about this, my letter is below, along with most of my math. I have compared my numbers against real peoples progress towards the title and I am pretty spot on, maybe a little off because I couldnt exactly time the intermission or time per round.




Hi, with the recent release of the Dragon Festival and the Lucky and Unlucky titles in Guild Wars factions I have decided to calculate the total number of hours it requires to get these titles maxed out. My calculations have been confirmed by comparing them to actual players progress in the title and how much time they have spent. Now according to some sources I have been told that it requires 2.5 Million tickets won to get the highest lucky title, and 500,000 losses to get the highest unlucky title. Each round last about 8 seconds, there are 19 rounds, with a 34 second intermission.

34seconds/19rounds + 8seconds = 9.78974 seconds per round

Now when you play the 9 rings game. If you stand in any of the circles you win 85 tickets for every 9 rounds. So...

85 tickets / 9 rounds = 9.44444444 tickets per round

So if the max title requires 2.5 million tickets for the max title, and you win 9.444444 tickets per round..

2,500,000tickets / 9.44444 tickets per round = 264705.88 rounds until you win 2.5 million tickets

add in the time per round which is about 9.78974 seconds

264705.88 rounds * 9.78974 seconds per round = 2591401.768 seconds to win 2.5 million tickets

60 seconds in 1 minute...

2591401.768 seconds / 60 = 43190.02941 minutes

60 minutes in an hour...

43190.02941 minutes / 60 = 719.833824 hours

so it would take about 719.83 hours to reach the max title for lucky. This festival only last for 5 days each day is 24 hours...so 120 hours in the festival. It would appear that even if you played the 9 rings game all day every day from the very beginning of the dragon festival until the very end, it is impossible to reach the max title for Lucky. Infact, it would take 30 days of straight play to win the max lucky title. I have done the math for the max unlucky title and it too is impossible to reach. Lastly, even if you were truely lucky and won every round. You would still come up short of the title by about 100,000 tickets. Did anyone think of this ahead of time or were random number chosen for these titles. I understand that these games are created as money pits to get money out of the economy, but players should at least be given a fair chance to acheive these titles. Is the max for the lucky title really 2.5 million tickets? If so, Why are the titles unattainable? and Are you going to attempt to correct this problem?

thanks,
Brian

maybe the 'big surprise' will be that the festival area is permanent...honestly all it is is 2 chance games, whack a worm, and dodgeball...i could picture that being the big surprise at the end. That could be another reason why we only got useless prizes instead of something that removes dp.

I haven't done the maths but if you were really lucky isn't it possible to acheive the title?

They're unattainable during *this* festival. Perhaps there will be other games of chance at other special events, during which people can again go afk and try to max the titles.

Well in theory if there was one round every 10 secs and you were standing on the corner, and the corner always won...

That would be 5.5 tickets won per second

2,500,000 / 5.5 = 454545.454545 seconds needed for the title.

454545.454545 / 60 = 7575.7575 minutes

7575.7575 / 60 = 126.2626 hours

126.2626 / 24 = 5.26 days

Seeing as the festival is 5 days long I dont think its possible within the time frame. Then again the 10sec per round was a rounded number off of 1Bad's math. So maybe that slight bit of rounding would affect it.

Even if you knew which circle was gonna light up and ran on it for 5 days straight it wouldnt be enough tickets unless they were all corners...I think

Either way I'm going for the fourth tier of the title but I seriously doubt I will make it to that .

That's what I've been thinking. I doubt the people at ArenaNet just pulled some big numbers out of the air and said, "Hey, these look good!" without even thinking about whether or not you could actually reach them. They may not be perfect, but I don't think they're clueless.

I just wish they'd actually give you fair odds on those ring games. As it is, you'll lose no matter what if you play long enough. . . . But then I guess it wouldn't be a gold sink.

In another thread, someone calculated that the Lucky max title could theoretically be attained in slightly under 5 days, but this would require basically every winning spot being a corner, and you standing on it. Obviously, this is not happening, so no, it's really not possible. The Unlucky max title is not possible during this 5 days because the number of losses required is greater than the number of games played.

1Bad: If you really wanted to calculate a max potential, I suppose the gamer could run over to the 4x4 game during the intermission at the 3x3 game... Of course, you would have to calculate the whether or not the other game would also have an intermission at the time... LOL

The times are for the addicts that macro.

That is all.

could it be that anet might do another festival somtime down the road with more ticket winning games

I think you have a great point- even if I buy 10,000 tickets and leave my character standing on a corner circle and leve the computer on for the entire duration of the festival, and EVEN if i get LUCKY, there is no way I can get the max title. This is just stupid. I am a perfectionist, and I believe that the perfect title rank should be achievable. Are ANET just making it unachievable so it doesnt count to the KoaBD title? I certainly hope not. Good maths btw :P

guys guys guys !!!

remember that the title is just based on tickets u win and games u loose ...

like i said earlier .. u dont know if the games ll always be based on leaving an afkd char somewhere ...

what if u gotta play the games one by one ?

also.. what if further events dont use that ticket system ?

well the title does say "win xxx tickets at games of chance" not being specific to any event, since this festival only has one game of chance, you can probably expect more of this type in the future that will help you achieve this title.

Maybe they'll develop a mini-game arena seen in traditional single player rpg's but only on a larger scale, who knows... only time will tell.

There will probably come more events like this

This a rhetorical question. Why does it only have to refer to this Festival? um if you are such a genius to figure all that stuff out why can't you answer your own question. The one and only logical answer is that they will have other festivals/events where you will be able to win tickets. Sorry that you and some other players are so anxious to get titles, but that should be it and if anet doesn't do anything about it then your question can pop up.

off-topic: TnC as in The Next Chapter?

Actualy players had the lucky title yesterday 14 hours after the beginning of the festival. You need to win 10 times more tickets to max it, so I guess you can earn it in 140 hours. But of course, there is... luck involved!

I've seen about 4-5 people with "Charmed" and 2 with "Hapless"

They are attainable, and its only day two. You need to be funded however, and just go AFK.

I myself am 1/5th of way there for both titles and I've barely started, heck havent even gone AFK while I sleep. However I have blown alot of cash on tickets.

I don't see it being Dragon event to be permanet.. but I think the titles to be re-used / combine with future events as well.

When they say un attainable they mean the max level of the title. The first few levels are attainable in this event but not the last.

2 Games. 9 rings, and 16 rings. Just so you know.

But of course, this festival again next year? More factions only festivals. Harvest festivals anyone?

w8 a minute, u said the festival is 5 days, but it isnt,

it started on friday and finishes wednesdays, soooo, 1.friday, 2. saturday, 3. sunday, 4. monday, 5. tuesday, 6.wednesday, it is 6 days,

the point of this i dont know but just wanted it to go through to the ppl :P , still can't get max title tho lol

if you didnt read my post yet above, basically I said there should be other events/festivals in the future in factions or maybe in Chapter 3 that will have mini-games with tickets to win or lose, and this will allow the titles to eventually be attainable. It's just some people are impatient and have nothing else to do but complain that it isn't attainable.

The event ends at 11:59p.m. PACIFIC on TUESDAY. This is coming directly from Gaile Gray.

Five days.

Sorry sherlock, that 's' is just for grammar purposes.

Actually, to be honest I didnt do the math to figure out what would happen if someone actually won every round in the corner spot of 9 rings. But this proves it
5days x 24 hours/days = 120hours
120hours x 60mins/hour=7200mins
7200mins x 60sec/min = 432000seconds
432000seconds / 9.75seconds/round = 44307.69 rounds
44307.69 rounds x 55 tickets / rounds = 2436923 tickets
even if you are lucky, you still come up short.

o, and I am not trying for this title, I just thought it would be fun to figure out if it was going to be attainable during this festival. Because alot of people in my alliance are just leaving themselves on all day and night because they think they can get the title.

Agreed, I got Charmed yesterday, left it overnight sleeping and now 80 k on Lucky.

Hapless is harder to get seeing theres no -40 lose tickets such as 9 rings gives 40 ticket wins.

I think you meant 5 x 24 = 120.


Im at 95k tickets won so far, I think I might be able to get to tier 3 XD

There has to be a reason for not being able to attain the title by the end of the festival...I doubt the devs at Anet are as retarded as you all accuse them of being.
I would think the next halloween event (which will probably coincide with the release of ch3) will make much more use of the tickets and carnival games, seeing as how popular they are now.

So would you suggest to everyone with tons of tickets to keep them or sell them??

Sherlock? My aren't you a pompous jerk.

And cynical at that. I swear some of you don't use your heads. Like ANET is complete pack of idiots.

They wouldn't have put such high requirements on the highest levels if they were not planning to either a) have more "games of chance" in the future via festivals, or even possibly b) permanently adding some kinds of "games of chance" to the game, not just fesitval based.

Just relax. They are not complete idiots. There *will* be other opportunities to get this title.

Exactly what I was thinking. That would be completely retarded if it was impossible, so WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? OMFG!!!1 MORE GAMES!

Well here's your answer.... a few months on and they reopened the games titled "Boardwalk" this time.

You sure that's answering what they are complaining about?

I have yet to see any math that justifies that you can max either of the titles by combining the original festival time with this weekend's boardwalk time.

Hence it's highly possible that their complaint of being unable to max the titles is just as legitimate and relevant as ever and has not been resolved.

Maybe this helpes for some people.

http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Luck_titles_guide

But who is to say that ANet won't have games of chance during other events? This weekend is an indication that ANet is willing to bring the games back (due to player request, no less), so who knows what might happen in future events. Based on the sheer number of tickets won/games lost needed to max these titles, it's pretty clear that the intention was that they couldn't be maxed in a week's worth of afking, I mean, playing. Which implies to me that ANet's plan is to have more of these games at future events. Maybe the event team has some fun, new games of chance in store for us for Wintersday.

-Tom

This isnt the first event though where tickets were available. Some people had already started before this festival began.

Therefore, if this is the 2nd chance, its obvious more events will be appearing.

End of discussion, close.

The "who is to say" part is not very reassuring, especially since every time these things have come around so far, there is a huge player backlash from people who cannot afford the titles who cry foul about the games of chance even existing. Who is to say that eventually Anet won't listen to that player backlash and thus stop offering games of chance before anyone/most people have been able to max their titles.

It would be much more reassuring if there was either an announcement of a confirmed schedule of dates on which these events will occur, or they are made permanent. So that those who already have several hundred thousand plats invested into these titles need not worry about things like the backlashes encouraging the devs to stop offering any games of chance and thus wasting all their money that has already been put into these titles.

You dont have to macro..

this isnt the first time we've had these games, it wont be the last

stop fretting about it, get a grip

where did you get 2.5 million max from. Wiki clearly states 1 million is max Golden(5)
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Title#Lucky

and all the maths
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Luck_titles_guide

This is true ,but that is not what guildwiki said in JULYwhen this thread was started.