Online Player Numbers as of July 2005 - PC Zone Magazine

Sure it can I mean there is only so much you can do before you put it down I know all my friends have gotten the game, finished it and put it down. Too bad they didnt expand the world from the start

~prime

Lol if GW's even lost 100,000 players it wouldn't hurt it one bit. It's FREE, so if anything it will save the company money. I just get a chuckle out of the DOOM & GLOOM sayers, just because they no longer like the game they hope and want everyone else to no longer like or play the game. lol Now that's elitist at it's finest. All I will say is "bye bye, don't let the door hit yah on the way out and one more thing "can I have your stuff?"

Well, i don't see how GuildWars got onto those charts. The site http://www.mmogchart.com do NOT include GuildWars on ANY of the statistics there, so why is it on this list?

Anyway, 400k sounds about right in terms of box-sales. Guildwars must be compared to single player games. People played Doom3 for 2 months after release and then the hype dissapeared and died out [in my case it died out after a week ]. Now the problem with GW is , unlike Doom3 , Anet has to maintain an online server. People can still buy Doom3 4 years from now , will GW still be going 4 years from now?

Maybe they wanted to bring in a Counter-Strike effect, problem is last i checked CS started from a player-made mod which wasn't 'controlled' by a large corporation [if players wanted something to change, it was changed by them]. And i can't say GW has that going for them yet. Maybe if it it's turned over to open-source/modding it'll take off again.

Gooo Runescape!!! Woo!

Actually it reduces the game experience for everyone. There is not a single person i know from planetside that was happy when the server consolidations took place or the fact that their system performance improved as a direct byproduct of a lack of things to shoot at.

Typically, speaking about other mmo games with the flow of people in and out, typically they will experience low points in subscriptions between expansions and new peaks shortly after an expansion. The peaks would represent a portion of gamers returning to the game to search through the new content for anything interesting, while accounting for the normal segment of new people comming in. The difference is with GW is that there is no real commitment or "need" to continue playing day to day with the lack of subscription combined with the nautre of the pve. You could just as easily quit after beating the pve once as you could quit after unlocking everything and both have different time amounts invested. Typically the unlocking everything route leads down to pvp, because in pve you generally only need 1 build per character that works, with maybe one or two options to trade in or out. The pvp segment of the game is also the only dynamic environment at all really, due to the unique instancing of the world.

The more "hardcore" player base could easily be summed up into the dedicated farmers and top ladder guilds. This harcore playerbase is what the "casual" player interacts with day to day, because of the amount of time the "hardcore" player will invest within the game. Shunning or losing the "hardcore" segment of the playerbase is not a good thing as it quite literally rips out the center that many people will strive to be like or use as a guide to improve and learn. The problem with losing the "hardcore" is the ensuing domino style effect that occurs. From the "hardcore" perspective, if there is no one worth playing with or against then its not worth the time to play. How this is rated varies by type, but it tends to exist as such very commonly. This kind of behavior exists when you observe the splintering or dissolving of guilds. Sure there is also a re-organization of some who stay, but the whole is dimished overal. I have seen this kind of behavior across many different games. The more "casual" player feels this loss when the game becomes more "empty" in the more popular areas and completely deviod of life in the less popular areas. It steadily becomes increasingly more difficult to do some of the more basic things within the game, such as finding a group, or starting a pvp match. When the time spent waiting to do something begins to outweigh the amount of time spent doing something is typically when the "casual" gamer will walk away from it. The "casual" gamer is more likely to return, but the "hardcore" will not. Every game needs a healthy population of both.

1.5 million players off is not even close.

there's 2 million in china alone i think.

Being that I came from Lineage II (and a sizeable and respected clan there) that game, meaning Lineage II has all those players for a reason, in my opinion, and many others, and that is the sadism factor.

I know, I was there. LOL.

The figures seem to tell us nothing more than who plays what the most, and that is indeed telling. However, what is not seen apparently, is the fact that most of those figures are, in fact, taken from "created accounts" not actual playtime online in whatever form that takes.

WOW sold all those copies and had accounts made, but that is not totally indicative of how many people are riding griffons...

http://www.ncsoft.com/fileupdown/upl...tReport/ML.pdf

This is a financial write up by Merrill Lynch on Guild Wars. If PC Zone did base these figures on sales of Guild Wars, their figures are horribly wrong, and the web site is completely unreliable.

Fact.

Wonder what it means by "domestic license sales" in Korea? Is that just a box sale, or do they have laws requiring people to register if they play?

650K sales in US and Europe in 2 months... not bad.

Oh, NC Soft has a Buy rating. Also a good sign.

How many sales in that particular domestic market, as in Korean stores.

holy crap GW BOMBED in korea.

So only 27K sales in Korea?!

As often as they have favor, that seems low.

Overall, the read appears to be positive, would you concur?

License sales to Korea deal with things like internet cafes. Most gamers in that region do not play out of their home, but out of businesses set up to do it.

So single licenses likely have a multiple user base, and likely also cost more than a U.S. version box sale one would assume.

I didn't see GW on the charts on MMOG.com(maybe I missed it), but it would be interesting to see if there has been a rise or a decrease in numbers. I honestly haven't been paying much attention to it.

Seem to me if you see a rise or a dip in numbers might be a better indication of the popularity. 400k is good but if it was 700k the month before it isn't.

So? Cafes don't exactly give each computer a CD Key. In order to play it, you need an account, which means a CD Key, which means you need to buy the game.

Pretty much. It is the same concept as business licenses for Windows. You can buy one license which covers X amount of processors, obviously at a cheaper rate then buying each one seperately.

To get a more accurate estimate on how many people could be 'possibly' playing the game, you would have to know how many of these licenses were sold, and how many PCs total possible each license entailed.

It depends how they coded the versions released in Korea. Could be completely different means to set up an account.

I believe the point is: Internet Cafe in Korea with 10 PCs, buy 10 copies/keys, but more than 10 people actually play on the account/cdkey. Considering that Lineage (NCSoft) even adapted their accounts to allow this sort of 'account sharing' system in Korea, means they are probably well advanced in their Icafes with this kind of setup for GW too.

In the end? 1 account is active 24-7, only 1 person maybe play at a given moment on it, but when he logs off, the next one logs on.

Further consider this: PvP chars can be deleted/recreated without any loss. The person logs on, create PvP char and play, logs off, next person logs on deleted/recreate and play etc. Chances are you can set it up nicely so that 4 buddies share an account this way, with time schedules etc etc.

All of a sudden that statistic of box-sales in Korea being insanely low makes sense, Inet Cafe can buy 10 copies and have 40+ people play on it.

Guild Wars tv ?

mmogchart.com only considers the number of subscriptions to MMO games. Since Guild Wars has no subscriptions, it's not included in their charts. This may be a shortcoming in these charts, but it would be very hard to get an accurate number on the number of active users for a subscription-less game, because this number is not reflected in revenue figures that have to be published by publishers.

Speculation can be made all day long on what the number 27,000 means. Without a proper write up from NCSoft or a financial company on NCSoft on exactly what the word license entails, we will never know. 27,000 could be the number of licenses sold, times X number of possible people that could play under each license. Even if that number was only 10, 27,000 turns into 270,000 total possible players in Korea very quickly.

The fact of the matter is the figure 27,000 does not encompass the total amount of possible players in Korea, and that it is infact a much higher number.

..which is why the list posted in the starter post is clearly flawed. It's like putting Starcraft on that list with it's 1 million+ "subscribers" and saying "look more people are playing Starcraft than EvE, how is it dying? "

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=34555

Topic similar to this one came up a little while back, heres an interesting highlight or two regarding the licenses in korea

Now, I'm note completely solid on the second quote there, as that Merrill Lynch report even says that NCSoft was disappointed by the sales... if anyone feels like looking into the Lineage sales, it'd be an interesting thought

I think my ascalon method is most accurate. Check out the number of districts every Friday for a feel, set a time that you check. Let's make it 10:30 eastern U.S. time. If it's going up then you know the base is still growing pretty much, if it's going down then you know the new player base is starting to dwindle and if it's around the same then all is going well.

There is/was lineage2 tv. I had some clips of it in mpeg showing different tournaments and promotional things.

It was also listed as volitile.

Makes sense.
Still it would be interesting to see the trend. I'm sure Anet knows exactly how many users thay have on, but we are not privvy (sp) to that info

http://www.ncsoft.com/fileupdown/upl...tReport/ML.pdf

I guess everybody knows the link by now. I think there is no big mystery regarding what licences mean. The report says that it was expected to earn W30 bn (currency ?) but only earned W1.5 bn so far. So it's unnecessary to puzzle about the meaning of licences when the gross sales are far lower than expected.

It seems that 27 000 licences refers to sold copies which would be very bad iindeed.

I expect GW's to end up like the Heroes game COH, it's pretty fun for the first couple of months, but, it becomes so easy and repetitive that it loses its shine and many will quit playing it and try something else. But, for me because it is FREE, that's the icing on the cake that no other online mmo/mmorpg of this type offers. So, when I need a fantasy online mmo/mmorpg game type fix this is the one I will play. Player base may fall to 250,000 or 200,000 and become normal. That's a fair amount of players for any mmo/mmorpg else DAOC, SWG's, UO, AO and those likes would be gone by now. Hell even "SHADOWBANE" lol as sorry as it is with only a few thousand players is still active and the other one "WW2 Online" with about 15,000 active players is still alive. So, I wouldn't put the doom & gloom on GW's just yet.

I believe A-Net is depending much more on overall sales of the game and expansions vs how many people continue to play it over a given time, once they reach the expansion every 6 months period they will make a steady income and profit to keep the game alive for many years. They also don't have to employ GMs and other internal sources that cost money as well like Everquest and the others. Plus I like not having GM's, finally a game where freedom of speech rules them all.

To me it's like an RPG fix every six months or so if the live up to the 6 months expansion releases. Many times in years past I have waited for a good RPG game inbetween other RPG games and sometimes it would be years of waiting. Now with GW's it looks like I'll get a fix quite often.

So those that are going to quit, well quit, the income from you has aready been obtained and with their marketing strategy I'm pretty sure they know what they are doing. Expansions will sell and bring back some old and probably a bunch of new and that just keeps their profit margin about online with what they want I'm pretty sure.

650K copies is quite a number, considering that Merrill wrote that in june. It has most likely sold MANY more copies by now, as every store I go to is sold out(I actually think Best-Buy had 1 copy)

I disagree with you. Per the article, Domestic and European sales were 650000, and Korean sales were only 27000 at the end of June. Do you honestly think they sold even 100,000 more in July, and have you taken into account the number of players who (apparently) have "beaten" the game and put it down? The casual player IS a casual player, and if he/she beats the game in under 150 hours in 97 days since release, do you think the majority will continue? And how many of those "sales" still languish on store shelves? (90 days is the discount or return for credit break point for most of the larger retailers, unless they are achieving their goals). My local Best Buy only keeps 3 on the shelf now, and it isn't even on the hot shelf anymore.

It's a cloudy sky out there folks.

Double post content:



How many copies of Sims 2 have been sold? Anyone know? Or how about Halo 2?

Halo 2 shipped 2.38 MILLION UNITS the first day. Game Stop alone sold over 500,000 units in their stores. And don't tell me that game consoles don't count. We're the same players, and the games are all priced the same.
Sims 2 sold more than FIVE MILLION copies in the EA fiscal year ending March 28, 2005, and The Sims franchise sold more than 16 million games across all platforms during the year. To make it even more painful for everyone, Need for Speed sold 15,000,000 copies alone.

Stark reality. We are small among the community of gamers.



http://www.gamespot.com/news/2004/11...s_6112915.html

RuneScape has more people playing than EQ2? God that's hilarious... I used to play that back in the day, too :P

Sorry, had to get that out.

On topic:

I think that GW MAY see a drop as a lot of players start getting bored outta their minds, but once Chapter Two comes out (anyone have a rough date btw?), the numbers will shoot up again as new players join the fold and those on hiatus return.

There's a couple of flaws in your argument.

One: Halo 2 and Sims 2 have something in common, beyond both being videogames. What is it? The number 2. Both games had HUGE fanbases pre-release, and that always inflates the sales far and above what they would have been.

Two: Halo 2 was an especially bad example to use for that IMO, because of the HUGE media blitz and fanboy frenzy. I mean, come on, how many videogames get theatre trailers and commercial spots every half hour? It also fed off the insane (and almost cult) success of Halo, which led to every copy and then some being gone on release day.

Guild Wars had neither of the above factors going for it on release. It was relatively quiet compared to WoW, EQ2, HL2 and the like (there's that 2 again...). GW is growing, however, as more an more people find out about it and go "hm". We're a small group compared to the big dogs, but we're also a helluva lot bigger than some. And we're still growing

The point is Pc Zone posted figures in July, and that report was done in June. The point that was made is that IF PC Zone's figures were based off of sales, they are obviously horribly wrong. So wtf are you exactly talking about, because I don't think even you know....

650000 +27000=

Estimated on line players per magazine -400,000. An ESTIMATE is an ESTIMATE (see dictionary).

How can that be horribly wrong? We've lost nearly 50% of our 30 guild members because they haven't played in over a month. And today is August 4th.

BTY, WTF is innapropriate unless you can't understand the math, then you are excused.

You're comparing established titles to brand new ones.

The Halo series is the biggest series on the XBox, virtually every XBox owner has bought halo 1 and 2.

The Sims is a very well established series, lots of dedicated fans and a huge community, success is virtually guaranteed no matter what crap EA put out.

World of Warcraft has the Blizzard logo on it, that right there guarantees millions of dollars in profit in Korea alone.

Need for Speed is, again, a well known franchise, dating back to a long time ago, not to mention it has the EA logo on it.

Guild Wars is a brand new game, it doesn't have a long list of prequels that came before it and it's the developers' first game. Just the fact that it's up there in the top 5 speaks a lot about this game.

Phineas, like I said above, I think that while there are folks who got frustrated and walked away, I think a lot are just waiting for new content because they got bored with what we have now. When the Summer Release and Chapter Two come out, a lot of those folks should come back, as well as a lot of new ones.

Now stop being so pessimistic :P

No flaws. Numbers are numbers. No matter how you got there, numbers are numbers in the end. And inflated sales figures? I don't think so, BOTH companies are public and subject to audits of their sales.

Because EA and Microsoft are better at marketing than ncsoft and Arena net means that they sell LOTS more across ALL platforms. The Sims in 1999 had NO fanbase and they sold 6 million the first fiscal year. Why, advertising. If some of you would look at it not as gamers but from the economic viewpoint, maybe you'd understand the problems we face.

Double post content:

You said the magic word, bored. That in itself doesn't speak well for the game. And pessimistic, I've got over 250 hours on old Oscar alone. And I bought THREE copies. I AM one of the die hard, and I hope that Arena Net follows the US model for marketing, not word of mouth.

Unfortunately YOU don't understand the math. First of all, if you even read the damn article, you would understand that 27,000 != the number of players in that region, so your math of 65000+27000 is wrong already.

Also, I will agree with your logic on what an estimate is. Unfortunately for an estimate to be believable it has to fit a certain margin of error. I can accept a 10% margin, hell even a 20% one. But, there is an easy possibility of a 100% margin of error. That is pretty damn unacceptable in my eyes.

And yes, you are right, people have stopped playing GWs. But you can't just make up figures and apply them to a total and have it be a reliable source of information in any way, shape, or form. NCSoft isn't releasing figures on how many people are playing the game, and how many are not, so your 'estimate' is based off of purely fictional BS.

When I said, inflated sales figures, I didn't mean FRADULENT sales figures. I meant that there were more sales than there would have been otherwise.

As for advertising:

NCSoft is established, but small and has been concentrating on pimping COH/COV more than GW. Anet is BRAND NEW. They put EVERYTHING into developing GW, and didn't have a lot left for advertising it beyond E3 and various pimpings from game sites. *my god, I actually used the word "pimping" twice in one paragraph...*

And I understand the economic viewpoint quite well actually. MS and EA were looong established companies that could afford all the advertising they wanted and more, and could afford to have a miss since they've had so many successes in the past. Anet? This is their first game; understandably, they put more money into making this game NOT be a miss than into advertising it.

Just be patient, as more comes out and they start reaching some points of relative balance, they can advert more... patience is the key.

Again, we ARE small, yes. For now. We're also in the top 5 currently played MMO's (since GW is technically classified as an MMO). That's pretty damn impressive for a startup game with little advertising. And again, we're still growing.

Double post content:

Again, you misread what I said...

I wasn't specific enough when I was talking about players being bored there, though I think I hit it more in my first post. These folks have finished the game, maybe several times, but aren't the self-proclaimed die-hard that you are. They've done it all, or at least as much as they could... and they wait for more, and move on to other things. But once that "more" comes out, they come around again and play that "more" till that runs out, then they wait again. Classic, basic gamer.

On pessimism:

I meant pessimisitic on the game's future, not on your own take on the game... you seem to be doom-and-gloom about it, despite practically yelling that you are a patriot to the game.