I’ve been in GW for a couple of months now, and as in that time I’ve made some observations of the structure of the economy, for all I know I could have missed some fundamental game mechanic that makes this entire post redundant….. Either way meh lol
I'm writing this mainly in response to so much concern being voiced about new items destabilising the GW economy, and also because I’m a great big no-it-all who likes to have his say
I'd like to start by explaining a little about how the GW economy is currently structured before I start to voice my opinions on how it could be improved. I’m going to keep this as simple as possible. For both my fingers sake and your eyes, and if you feel I’ve missed something (I probably have) or have any other comments, please feel free.
Most of you will probably find this really really dull. Don’t worry, I neither expect anybody to read it all, or expect them to have any positive feedback….. would be nice to be wrong though

This is after all only my personal opinion.

There are three factors that govern the economy in Tyria;
1) The Tradable Items
2) The Gold
3) The Players
These three factors are fundamentally linked, and form the basis for the GW economy as we all know and love it.
Without us, the players there would be no economy whatsoever, we are the driving force.
Players effectively manufacture items. We find Dyes, weapons or crafting materials whilst we quest. We also go out and “farm” for specific items in specific areas. Either way, this is the same as production in the RW, and, as far as I’m aware Anet has not placed any upper cap on the quantity of Charr Hides or Vampiric sword hilts that can exist in the game at any given time. Instead the quantity of each item is controlled by its percentage chance to drop from given monsters in given areas. What this means is that the quantity of a given item that exists in the game at any given time is a direct function of the amount of monsters killed, and can be presented for item X as follows.
Quantity X in game = Function of (Chance of X dropping * Quantity of monsters killed)
And since:
Quantity of monsters killed is directly proportional to the age of the game, it can be said that:
Quantity of X in Game = function of (Chance of X dropping * Age of game)
Basically what this boils down to is that the more you kill the more you find, and as the longer the game goes on for, the more of each item will exist.
So, we have the first element of our GW economic model, an exponentially increasing volume of tradable items.
Gold, the most important commodity in Tyria, everything is valued in it, without gold you would have no measure of worth, even those precious ecto’s are valued in gold, all-be-it 10 or even 12k in places.
Gold is very interesting in the fact that not only is it the “currency” or mode of transfer within Tyria, but also because it is freely available. Gold can be acquired through trading, farming … or even E-bay. No matter how you acquire your gold, fundamentally it comes from the same source, Monsters.
Whether its collecting actual gold that drops on the floor when an unfortunate Charr falls clutching his throat and drops his wallet, or whether its from collecting items that you later convert to gold via a merchant, or another player, it all (except v small amounts) comes from killing beasties.
Now, this clearly means that gold acts in the same way as items. The ammount of gold in the GW world is rising exponentially. It is freely availible.
This causes one major, Uber big, economy Slaying problem
INFLATION
Anet must have realised this could manifest into an economy killing problem whilst creating the game, that would at least explain the cap applied to the maximum amount of gold you can carry on any given Character/ account.
In a static game world where the number of accounts was fixed, the gold cap would indeed be enough to stem inflation, or at least that inflation due to gold.
However, we do not play in a static world (Phew), and there is a constant increase in the number of accounts. There is not even a limit to the amount of gold available to a given individual, as no one is stopping you from purchasing separate accounts.
So;
Amount of Gold in the game is directly proportional to the age of the game, and the number of active accounts.
Gold = Function of (Game Age * Active accounts)
Therefore gold will increase exponentially, until account levels begin to drop.
So what does this all mean?
Basically it means that the price of all items will increase over time, this will be mitigated slightly by the increasing volume of those items, but, not enough I fear.
But surely, if the value of all items is increasing, then there can be no problem?
Well yes, but, no. This would be true if the value of all items were to increase proportionally to each other, this however will not happen. The inflation will only effect those items traded from player to player, not those sold or bought at merchants.
Ask yourself, will you ever pay 500gp for a basic Rin Blade, or 100gp per plank of wood?
I wouldn’t, not when the merchant over the road sells them for 10gp each.
So, those items that are available at merchants, or drop like rabbit babies, will continue to be sold at merchants / salvaged, or will remain fairly stable in price.
However, those items that are not sold at NPC vendors will suffer, this creates a situation where a new player joins the game and starts selling there items for 20 – 100 gp each. But since the minimum price for that perfect axe is inflated to the point where its costs 15+ ecto’s, and ecto’s are valued at 50k + each.
Even so, if you’re an established player, who currently has large quantities of wealth, in today’s terms, then you should find it fairly easy to keep up, and inflation shouldn’t physically bother you that much.
There are however two major game destroying problems:
1) It looks really really silly.
2) It alienates new players.
The fact that extremely inflated prices looks silly may not seem like too much of a problem, but assuming most people are like me, and do there research before deciding which game to buy. Over inflated prices could severely reduce the potential for new players to join, just because it “Looks” unachievable to ever be able to compete with the big boys (and girls).
New players who do join will find themselves separated from the established gaming community by an enormous ravine, they haven’t grown with the inflation, and so have to “catch up”. You end up with a situation like Diablo 2, where all the good items require SoJ’s to buy them, but hardly any players can afford SoJ’s themselves and they drop so infrequently as to be akin to rocking horse shit.
So, what you end up with is a situation where gold gets replaced by some other over inflated commodity which can have its price/value controlled by players.
This gives you the situation where new players strive to accumulate these high value items, but can never acquire enough to breach the “Money Gap”.
So, what happens?
They go to E-bay, or, they go to another game.
The resulting effect is a reducing game population, which eventually results in a dead (or very close to) game.
What gets me is that almost every game out there has this problem in some form or another.
It would be so easy to fix, it would be so easy for game manufacturers to give there economies eternal life, and still be able to constantly throw new items and content into the game.
How?
Well in my opinion the answer lies with the gold, if the programmers can control or regulate the amount of money slopping around in the game. In other words remove the players ability to write bank notes.
Don’t just have cash sinks, have cash loops, where money you spend at NPC’s loops round and re-enters the game some where else.
Maybe (and I know this may not meet with approval) deduct an amount of gold from a player each time they die, then filter it back into the game through drops or quest rewards. Not only would this re-distribute wealth around the player-base, but would also add a touch of risk to any endeavour it applied to.
When a new account is created the total money available in the economy should be increased to avoid Depreciation.
A game economy should function much like a RW economy, it should be allowed its freedom, but it should also be subject to control.
You cannot maintain stability in a system where you apply control to one aspect but not the other. Ie controlling the price’s of crafting materials etc through the use of NPC’s but not controlling the quantity of gold.
Either apply control to both, or, control to neither
Anyway, that’s my 10 cence worth.
Sorry if it was dull / inaccurate / unfounded/ bullshit
I had fun