Chapter 4 Delayed Until Q3 or Q4 2007

As nearly everyone knows by now, the next chapter will not appear until the second half of this year, contrary to expectations set by both official communication from Arenanet and their phenomenal achievement in 2006: Factions in April, Nightfall in October.

The news comes from NCSoft and their sales and earnings announcement of February 7, 2007, http://www.ncsoft.com/eng/NCPress/View.asp?hSeq=1 .

The forums were already exhibiting unrest about chapter 4 and the lack of any news at all. Not surprisingly, there are now a few threats to abandon the game, negative comparisons with other MMOs and a some spirited defenses. Of course, Nightfall hasn't been out that long and whatever the spirit of discussion on the boards, the player base continues to grow so Arenanet may not be that concerned. Or they might be.

Here are some thoughts to consider:

At some stage NCSoft, the distributor and parent of Arenanet, was probably expecting two major revenue events from Arenanet in 2007. Some time after the Arenanet leadership had to recommend against that strategy, even though I have little doubt they could have produced and sold two releases with modest structural changes in the game. The Arenanet team, however, thought more highly of their player community and the future of the franchise to take that way out, recognizing that the game will only continue to flourish if each chapter takes a significant creative step. No matter how I look at, the decision reflects bravery, will and insight on the part of the Arenanet team. Telling your investors that they can expect 1/2 the revenue you and they had forecast for the year is never easy.

MMOs are a new art form, with elements of serialized fiction and motion pictures. It is even possible they will be to the 21st century what movies were to the 20th century. The serialized fiction of the late 19th century inspired strong passions, just consider the response to Sherlock Holmes fall from the Reichenbach Falls, and it is not surprising that changes in the release schedule of an MMO can provoke strong responses. Nevertheless, because of the changed nature of communication now, managing and communicating properly about that issue becomes another facet of that art. Part of maintaining and increasing a player base is in setting and managing expectations.

The issue is more than difficult. As new as MMOs are, the competition is already fierce and what you tell your players you are also telling the competition. I would not presume to knew what Arenanet should or should not say about chapter 4, however, I do believe that learning that it will not appear until the second half of 2007 from an NCSoft earnings press release, is much less than optimal. At the minimum I would have expected the same information to have been communicated directly to the player community by Gaile Gray shortly thereafter.

Guild Wars is by far the best MMO I have every played and I wish it a long and healthy life. Recently, on one of the forums there was a thread comparing Prophecies and Nightfall, which is an interesting exercise. In my judgement, Nightfall is far better from so many points of view, yet, I must also admit it did not deliver the elation I felt upon completing the Prophecies Ascension missions the first time. Much of that has to do with the novelty of the experience and supports the need for the kind of investment in creativity and originality that Arenanet appears to be giving to chapter four.

Well, if this all holds true I am not surprised and very much delighted to know this. It will give me, as a player to get all my character (I hope) through this campaign, and the ones I've created in this one through the previous to to capture their elites (necromancer, monk) and just finishing in time to begin this once more in Q3 or Q4.

Yea some info on the next chapter would be nice, and if not.......atleast tell us to shut the hell up and wait and see......in other words make some kind of statement reguarding the timeline/release of CH 4,

well i say take as much time as they need..... i want a great expans. not something hobbled together, also you cannot say anet does not do enough for the game, GW has had 2 expans. that both were nice, WoW barely just got one and they pay monthly for their game so you know what, i can wait.

Id rather it was a bit late better or the same, nightfall is still "new" in my eyes

I just look over these message boards and its either player demand increasing for information, or Anet has stuck a sock in their mouth. /endramble

It seems logical that the video gaming industry has become a mass media business competition within the past 4-8 years, whether its PC, Console, or Arcade based there is huge concerns. NCsoft has problems, Blizzard has problems, hell Sony and Nintendo have problems. This isn't selling TV's or Blue Ray DVD players, video games is a complete new wave of media and NO COMPANY understand ethically how to handle it(Business Wise). Not only are games in competition against their own format, but other formats and other companies. "Boomheadshot!" Anyone?

Anet has done well, but increasingly disapoint me. I am starting to believe they have a dart board in their main office with random ideas posted.

They want balance in HA, force 6v6, then make an 8v8 weekend. They have "weekend events" implemented which in my honest opinion ruined the game single handedly, the "goodies" of green weekends to the WTF double fame ruin ingame society.

They ask for player opinion yet I have seen NOTHING changed about GOOD posts on suggestions, EX Changing the mechanic on Avatar of Grenth, instead they cut the duration like it was never meant to walk again.
Gale having the knockdown increased per points in Air magic.

I just don't think Anet is really reading the good posts that are rare, but around on this message board and others.

Infact I am STILL questioning why they even let players have a say in the test changes if they just more or less kept the same statistics on 90% of their skills while people wanted about 80% more changes.

Stop spinning the bottle Anet.

Give them time. Even if they say nothing at all...

A hell of a lot of work is needed to do more than just expand a game. The last three releases have shared a lot of resources (animation, geometry etc.). A fine example of good planning, resourcefulness and economics for sure, but a system that eventually falls foul to entropy. They will soon become 'samey' and defeat their purpose.

I'm glad they have decided to take a little extra time on this one. While the artists/animators/coders are busy creating brand-new content, it also gives the designers time to evolve in-game activities. Which is undoubtedly a good thing.

All in all, I see nothing wrong with their current course of action. Every facet implies sound judgment. Though I concede the picture is currently far from visible...

We still don't know for sure if this little tidbit means Chapter 4, or something else.

Those who know, aren't talking. Those who are talking, don't know.

More power to them. My wife and I are still working our way through Prophecies and Factions with various characters and goals. We will probably pick up our copies of Nightfall in a month or two. If they want to take the time to deliver a high level of content in Chapter 4, great, it's worth the wait for us.

It's good to say they're taking time to develop a good game, instead of rushing it. This would eventually chase away many players. Thanks Anet for thinking about us!

I sort of figured this information out way back in November or December. For the most part it was fairly obvious that as more and more games came out, things will be pushed further down the line if you keep the same number of designers on the job. It's like having a bunny. You have one and it's all nice and easy to take care of. Then you get another and its a little bit harder. A little further you have a crapload of them and don't know what to do.

And...once again, it sort of proves my theory that the "Hard Mode" that they are planning on implementing will be that "cover up" and keep people occupied and hopefully content until the 4th campaign DOES come out. People are title hungry, so ANet's plan is to hopefullyl keep a lot of people around until the new release. People will do anything for a new title.

Will I be around when the next campaign comes out? You betcha!!! In the meantime, I still have plenty of stuff that I can do that is still a lot of fun!

- Aldoros of Faydark

This was all due to annual earnings and competition earnings based on the last two expansions. I had a feeling that the money does not drag in so well with expansions (or should I say stand alone products) alone. It’s not anyone’s fault, it was just a test in the waters to see how people felt about the 6 month release schedule. I did have my hopes that they would make more interest with this, but I had my doubts.

Now they have plenty more time to throw ideas across the table, which is a good thing and it’s less stress for A-net. I bet you anything this is a crucial marker for A-net in hope to raise the bar yet again in GW.

For me though I feel good about this, the development team needs that extra edge. Even if it mean possibly that chapter 4 comes out much later. I still have things to do in the other campaigns anyways, and I know A-net will keep the GW veterans amused until then.

best of luck to Anet, nightfall and factions were amazing games I can't wait to see what happens when they focus all of their efforts and give it twice the production time.

Woot! Now maybe ch2 and ch3 will be properly balanced before ch4 arrives.

[QUOTE]GARBAGE

a sales/earnings statement is not an announcement on release.

TRY THIS MAYBE

chapter 4 right on time end of April

CHAPTER 5 right on time at the end of OCT(second half)

this is how rumors get started .............As nearly everyone knows

Personally, I have enjoyed many of the weekend events.

I also would welcome the time to get my many characters through the other campaigns. I felt rushed because of nightfall following factions so closely and abandoned most of my characters.

I would rather have more time to spend on the other expansions and core game and wait for a well thought out chapter 4.

I'm actually relieved that they are not releasing chapter four until a little later. Because, to be honest, I took no pleasure in either Factions or Nightfall PvE. They brought some changes to PvP that I have enjoyed but the PvE game was, to me, Prophecies with a new paint job. Hopefully chapter four will be a bit more interesting.

I hope they take their time on this one. It definitely takes a lot of time to build a game, even if it's cosmetic. I'd rather not see a repeat of Faction's skill icons...

[skill]Gaze of Contempt[/skill][skill]Pain[/skill]

ughh... Looks like they took pictures of programmers and modified them.

I'm with Loviatar, I don't see an obscure statement in a quarterly financial report to be any kind of guarantee of when chapter 4/whatever is next is to be released.

Just wait for official word from Anet, the rest is speculation.

"major update to the Guild Wars franchise in the latter half of 2007" could mean anything, from immense DirectX 10 graphics overhaul, auction houses, player-owned shops, ability to use interface mods, new chat system, new PvP options, mulit-user instances (where individual people can just stroll into and beat stuff up with others).

I reckon if they meant the next chapter, it would have been "and the next chapter in the Guild Wars franchise in the latter half of 2007".

Well said Hal.

which would give a teriffic push to chapter 5 (halloween release) if the fill in your most wanted features were announced as being a free upgrade and that.....oh by the way........we also went all out on the upcoming chapter 5 due in just a month from now.

have players going wow this is a neat addition and hit them with the next chapter

hahaha, well said....factions anyone??

IMO, this is another incentive or push for Anet to actually TALK to us about Chap 4. At the very least, confirm or deny that it is on the previous schedule. This is one of my biggest complaints: lack of timely and complete info. I'm not interested in rumors, I'm interested in facts.

Yeah I'd like to know something, even if it's just a "we have a new chapter coming up but aren't sure if it'll be ready for April...". Just to hear anything would be good. I'm a loyal GW fan and have been for the last 18 months and will continue to be so regardless of whether the next chapter is delayed or not.

But that said, like a lot of people, I am quite happy working on getting all my 11 characters through the chapters, as they all have goals they want, titles they want, armour they want (all in PvE), and I want to save up some platinum for the new chapter ;D

Oh and I love all three chapters and am surprised that some people think that NF isn't that original - the Tihark Orchard mission was a def favourite of mine - drink anyone....? ;D

First off, I want to say thank you to Hal. That was one of the few enjoyable posts I've read in a long time! Not to mention its insightfulness.

Could not agree more. However, we may be seeing more of this since they started the HA opinion forums...But only time or an official announcement can tell at this point.

Hurray, enough time for me to save up the money for my PS3 games collection!!!

well i am expecting that 27.10.2007 will be day "D" (=release date) for Chapter 4

i think Bowman Artemis has hit the nail squarely on the head

NOTE

1 this is an update to the GW franchise which is chapter 1/2/3 at present

2 this is not a new chapter it is an update

we had the DX9 *update* and the *shader update*

this will be as stated a*major update to the Guild Wars franchise*

it says nothing about a new chapter/addition/release date at all

it says what we have will be *UPDATED*

I think I can echo many players' sentiment by saying I’d rather they release one quality release than two mediocre ones. ArenaNet should take their time and do it right. Take the philosophy if id and Valve, among others. It’ll be done when it’s done.

I don't know how many posters here read financial statements regularly, but it is important to realize that the use of the word "update" as it is intended for an audience of stockholders and institutional investors is not the same as "update" means to gamers. Sorrow's Furnace was an update to gamers; a new chapter would indeed be an "update" to an investment banker.

Some have suggested an update could be a change; perhaps, but it would not serve any purpose to inform shareholders that the company was planning to make changes to the "franchise" that would not generate additional revenue. I think that the interpretation of the thread originator is correct. Certainly, the much-discussed "silence of Anet" would point to a release that was later rather than sooner, n'est-ce pas?

[QUOTE=Loviatar]I could go into some detail arguing the merit of my deduction but I suspect the chances that it would change your mind are slight. I will say I admire your passion for the game and confidence in the development team and hope that should I prove to be correct, your enthusiasm will be unaffected.

[QUOTE=Bowman Artemis]Earnings statements are about revenue. NCSoft is saying they will be selling something in the Guild Wars franchise in the second half of this year. In the context of your statement you might want to consider what NCSoft/Arenanet would consider selling versus offering as a free upgrade, i.e. Sorrows Furnace.

[QUOTE=Feminist Terrorist]Precisely.

Last point, I am not saying, nor does the earnings announcement in any way preclude the possibility that Arenanet will not offer something significant for free in the coming months to help maintain the interest of the player community, again Sorrows Furnace comes to mind. The recent provocative changes in the Protector titles could be evidence of such an intention.

Oh God, I really hope it's not that. By all reports, Vista is something to stay far far away from, not something to buy a new computer for.

I thought DirectX 10 is the way to go?

do you think a free update putting in (for example only)
the fabled *AUCTION HOUSE* would not generate a ton of good will translating into higher future sales?

also note that the NIGHTFALL part was successful *launch* of nightfall not successful *update* of the GW franchise.

we can parse words all day but it really boils down to this.

some people obsessively feel compeled to finish every character they have and want the rest of us to wait for new content to accomodate them.

this rumor is a lifesaver they are grabbing.

here is the official position on rumors and it fits here perfectly

DX 10 will be the shznit once they get the bugs in Vista ironed out. I've seen movies and screen shots of Crysis and Hellgate:London, which both use DX 10, and they look amazing.

No. And you would never see that in a financial report from NCSoft anyway. If they talk about "major update" in the context of other releases, it means something they sell. Most likely a chapter but it could be something else. They also neglected to mention anything guild wars along with their listed first half 2007 revenue sources.

P.S. Crysis and Hellgate are both DX9 games too. And they look the same under DX9.

so I take it as if Chapter 4 will be using DX10, peoples have to get a average to pretty beefy system in order to play Chapter 4 on high graphic setting?

If the release of Ch4 is really being pushed back, I can only applaud ANet. Factions was rushed as it was, but I was still only about 1/2 or 2/3 of the way done exploring it when Nightfall came out. More time means I can actually play the game and more fully explore each chapter rather than only getting a taste of one chapter before moving onto the next.

As for Vista, I am staying as far away as I possibly can. lol

Vista is really that bad?