As I go through GWEN, I have noticed an alarming number of lockpicks breaking. Supposedly, I should I have a 52% chance of keeping my lockpick, but it seemed I was only keeping about 10%. So I started keeping track today.
PLEASE help me track this by posting your own results. Post (1) your chance of success, (2) how many Locked Chests you opened while you were counting, (3) how many picks you actually retained, and (4) what this percentage is.
My results today:
Chance: 52%
Opened: 18 chests
Retained: 6 picks
Percentage: 6/18 = 33%
So even though I was keeping more than 10%, my alarms were not unfounded and I was nowhere near 52%. Now, it could be that I had an "unlucky streak" here, and so will continue to keep track, but please post your results below. Thanks!
BTW, just out of curiosity, and only if you want, you could even post gold drops from the chests. From these 18 chests, I got four golds, and 14 purples.
My "gold from chests" percentage is: 4/18=22%.
Is Lockpick Retention Rate a Lie?
dts720666
Thomas.knbk
18 chests is not quite enough to draw any conclusion from.
Turaan Tolgerias
thats how probability works, the result of each use of the lockpick does not depend on the result of the previous time. What this means is over a short period more or less than 50% of you picks will be retained but over a very long period maybe 1000+ you'll have close to 500 retained lockpicks.
dts720666
I understand odds, probability, and percentages, and that 18 chests is not enough for an accurate percentage. I meant to state that in my op, but forgot.
But many of those in my guild are saying they are noticing more picks breaking than should be, so I figured I would gather some actual numbers and hard data. If 50 people post their results on this forum, and each one opens 20 chests (1000 chests total), and the retention rate is lower for all of them than what it should be, then there is a good possibility that there is a problem with the lock pick code.
If nothing else, maybe I myself will continue to post my own results. As I open 1000 chests (I'm working on treasure hunter and luck title tracks), I will see if I have close to 500 lockpicks retained.
But many of those in my guild are saying they are noticing more picks breaking than should be, so I figured I would gather some actual numbers and hard data. If 50 people post their results on this forum, and each one opens 20 chests (1000 chests total), and the retention rate is lower for all of them than what it should be, then there is a good possibility that there is a problem with the lock pick code.
If nothing else, maybe I myself will continue to post my own results. As I open 1000 chests (I'm working on treasure hunter and luck title tracks), I will see if I have close to 500 lockpicks retained.
HawkofStorms
The thing is, only the people who notice more picks breaking are going to complain about. People like me who are lucky with keys (according to my title track) don't complain.
There REALLY is no fair way to do this accurately as a player project. Just one person could lie, miscount, or use a selective sample size. Even 1000 is still not "statistically significant."
After all, there is ~ a .08% chance for a US nickel to land on edge after you flip it. Good luck figuring that out by actually flipping a coin. The only way it can be done is with a mathematical model using physics to calculate the probabilty.
There REALLY is no fair way to do this accurately as a player project. Just one person could lie, miscount, or use a selective sample size. Even 1000 is still not "statistically significant."
After all, there is ~ a .08% chance for a US nickel to land on edge after you flip it. Good luck figuring that out by actually flipping a coin. The only way it can be done is with a mathematical model using physics to calculate the probabilty.
Pae
The safest way is just to bring five lockpicks for each area that you'll be in and ignore the probability >_>.
The area and NM/HM can also change the chances of retaining the lockpicks and getting a gold.
The area and NM/HM can also change the chances of retaining the lockpicks and getting a gold.
dts720666
I currently have a 27% lockpick retention rate in HM. Tonight I went 0 for 17 in lock picks retained. Let's see, that's...zero percent!
In order to get up to 27%, I would need to open the next six chests without a pick breaking. That'll happen when ANet adds an auction house to GuildWars.
Lock pick retention rate is a lie.
In order to get up to 27%, I would need to open the next six chests without a pick breaking. That'll happen when ANet adds an auction house to GuildWars.
Lock pick retention rate is a lie.
Grasping Darkness
I havent retained one for a long time either. I'm hearing the same from players in game as well.
cosyfiep
yeah I thought it was pretty screwy too....my monk (level 3 wisdom) cant seem to keep a lockpick----had 16 of them, kept -0....my other characters with NO wisdom can seem to keep theirs.....its all luck.---or a roll of the dice.
pamelf
i currently have a 2% lockpick retention rate. That's right folks, 2.
arcanemacabre
I actually retained one tonight in HM. That was out of 5 picks, but it's the first one I've retained in about 30 over the past few weeks. Same character, and in HM. Not sure what my % is, but I do have rank 1 in Treasure Hunter with that character and nothing in Lucky, which means my percentage is low, but 1 in 30 is a bit ridiculous.
tmakinen
I have been running a statistically significant number of chests recently and kept track of the retain rate, and I can't see any evidence for the retain rate to be anything else than what is announced. Sometimes I retain 6 times in a row with a 33% chance (HM), other times I break 10 picks in a row with the same chance - that's just the way randomness works (my luckiest pick so far opened 13 NM 600g chests before breaking).
The standard deviation of a simple yes/no experiment is sqrt(N (1-p) p) where N is the number of tries and p is the probability of one (either, doesn't matter) outcome. So, for 18 chests, 52% retain rate the expected number of retains is 9.36 +/- 2.12 and your outcome is just one point below the 1-sigma limit, so there's nothing tangible so far.
Any attempts to do collective experiments of this kind will likely suffer from selective bias as already mentioned.
The standard deviation of a simple yes/no experiment is sqrt(N (1-p) p) where N is the number of tries and p is the probability of one (either, doesn't matter) outcome. So, for 18 chests, 52% retain rate the expected number of retains is 9.36 +/- 2.12 and your outcome is just one point below the 1-sigma limit, so there's nothing tangible so far.
Any attempts to do collective experiments of this kind will likely suffer from selective bias as already mentioned.
TPike
I get the message I have a 40% chance of retaining my lockpick.
It seems like I do much better than that.
I haven't opened a lot of chests ( approx 60 high-end ) but today I used one key and it opened at least 3 chests before it broke. ( 2 in dungeon & 1 in explorable area all in EotN)
Out of those 3 chests, 2 Purples & 1 Gold , but also got a max gold earth scroll drop by an enemy right next to the chest in the explorable area.
It seems like I do much better than that.
I haven't opened a lot of chests ( approx 60 high-end ) but today I used one key and it opened at least 3 chests before it broke. ( 2 in dungeon & 1 in explorable area all in EotN)
Out of those 3 chests, 2 Purples & 1 Gold , but also got a max gold earth scroll drop by an enemy right next to the chest in the explorable area.
Fril Estelin
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Originally Posted by dts720666
Lock pick retention rate is a lie.
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Did you also consider the key-cost bonus? I.e. the kind of chest you're trying to open. See:
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Lockpick
P.S.: I broke many lockpicks on their first use (may be about 40) then one day one lockpick opened about 5 chests!
FengShuiDove
For me, absolutely. I have "23%" retention in Hard Mode and retain nowhere NEAR that many. It's not uncommon for me to hit 10 chests a day and retain *maybe* one. One of these days I'm waiting for ANet to return the favor and I'll have a godly streak of retentions, but I'm not holding my breath.
N1ghtstalker
well in one CoF run:
i once retained a lockpick and got a q9 sephis sword 15^50
for the rest they all broke and i got worthless purples
i once retained a lockpick and got a q9 sephis sword 15^50
for the rest they all broke and i got worthless purples
Malice Black
Moral of the story - Lockpicks are gold sinks.
I never retain in HM, and rarely in NM. Opening chests with Lockpicks in NM is retarded anyway. Most NM chests drop purples anyway. If you insist on opening NM chests, use keys.
I never retain in HM, and rarely in NM. Opening chests with Lockpicks in NM is retarded anyway. Most NM chests drop purples anyway. If you insist on opening NM chests, use keys.
MirkoTeran
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Originally Posted by dts720666
Opened: 18 chests
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Alex Morningstar
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Originally Posted by dts720666
Is Lockpick Retention Rate a Lie?
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miskav
Remember, anything below 60-70% chance has a ''Huge'' Chance to break.
1000 out of a 1000 lockpicks COULD break.
It's not a conspiracy against you, it's bad luck.
1000 out of a 1000 lockpicks COULD break.
It's not a conspiracy against you, it's bad luck.
Squishy ftw
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Originally Posted by miskav
It's not a conspiracy against you, it's bad luck.
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121212
AW Lore
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Originally Posted by cosyfiep
yeah I thought it was pretty screwy too....my monk (level 3 wisdom) cant seem to keep a lockpick----had 16 of them, kept -0....my other characters with NO wisdom can seem to keep theirs.....its all luck.---or a roll of the dice.
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The Way Out
I tend to retain around 50%
I also have a wide pool to see that result from.
My lucky title goes up faster than my unluck...
Don't think I can help you, seeing as I am lucky
I also have a wide pool to see that result from.
My lucky title goes up faster than my unluck...
Don't think I can help you, seeing as I am lucky
Commander Ryker
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Originally Posted by Grasping Darkness
I havent retained one for a long time either. I'm hearing the same from players in game as well.
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The Way Out
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Originally Posted by Commander Ryker
Ever since I got level one lucky, I have had the worst luck.
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w00t!
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Originally Posted by tmakinen
I have been running a statistically significant number of chests recently and kept track of the retain rate, and I can't see any evidence for the retain rate to be anything else than what is announced. (snip)
The standard deviation of a simple yes/no experiment is sqrt(N (1-p) p) where N is the number of tries and p is the probability of one (either, doesn't matter) outcome. So, for 18 chests, 52% retain rate the expected number of retains is 9.36 +/- 2.12 and your outcome is just one point below the 1-sigma limit, so there's nothing tangible so far. Any attempts to do collective experiments of this kind will likely suffer from selective bias as already mentioned. |
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Originally Posted by dts720666
I currently have a 27% lockpick retention rate in HM. Tonight I went 0 for 17 in lock picks retained. Let's see, that's...zero percent!
In order to get up to 27%, I would need to open the next six chests without a pick breaking. That'll happen when ANet adds an auction house to GuildWars. Lock pick retention rate is a lie. |
"Sometimes it's better to remain silent and let people think you the fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"
Before you call it, and thus Anet, "a lie", study some basic statistics. Or at least look up probability on Wiki.
cosyfiep
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Originally Posted by AW Lore
wisdom has NOTHING to do with retention of lockpicks, lucky and treasure hunter do. wisdom only affects salvage percentajes.
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Chthon
The cake is a lie, but as far as I know the lockpick retention rate is accurate.
raja
well, i don't have any statistics or results (neither a pic to prove), but trust me. I received a lockpick, opened a locked chest, and with me not even having teir1 on the lucky title track I received the lockpick back.
The retain rate is only an increase in chance that you'll receive it. Sadly, it appears luck was not with you. Just keep opening chests, you can't excatly draw conclusions until you've opened a nice chunk of chests.
The retain rate is only an increase in chance that you'll receive it. Sadly, it appears luck was not with you. Just keep opening chests, you can't excatly draw conclusions until you've opened a nice chunk of chests.
Jay Em
I ran 500 chests on Normal Mode with 63% retain rate and I retained 294 lockpicks, so that comes out as 58,8%. Not too far off imo, but 63% would have been better. Well what can u do, it's just about luck. ^^
Kazza
well I think the whole retaining percentage is calculated wrong. I have done this many times for to push up my lucky title and I based this on 100 chests
100 chest opened
broke 55 picks
retained 45
considering this was a 79% retention rate and lucky title 3 and chest title 3 I queried this with a-net they basically said it was all down to pure luck. while luck is all well and good i reckon that they forgot something in their calculations of lockpicks and lucky titles is the disapointment of the poor guy that constantly breaks picks. I am hoping that they change this very soon cos I refuse to open any chests with lockpicks in any mode until they fix this or bring in a fairer method of chest and lucky title
100 chest opened
broke 55 picks
retained 45
considering this was a 79% retention rate and lucky title 3 and chest title 3 I queried this with a-net they basically said it was all down to pure luck. while luck is all well and good i reckon that they forgot something in their calculations of lockpicks and lucky titles is the disapointment of the poor guy that constantly breaks picks. I am hoping that they change this very soon cos I refuse to open any chests with lockpicks in any mode until they fix this or bring in a fairer method of chest and lucky title
Aerian_Skybane
Well, last weekend when I was playing around a bit in quests in GWEN, I used a minimal amount of lockpicks (about 10, which, depending on your POV for a few hours of playtime, is either not enough or too many, I am a sucker for chests), and I kept about half (4/10) (par for course). Last weekend, I only used about 6 and kept 5 of them. Not a single gold item though lol. Other weekends I ahve used 20 or so and kept less than a third, others I get real lucky. Haven't noticed to low of a trend so I never really cared. I have a minimal retain percentage... I never cared to go crazy on the titles thing so I have no idea what I have to be honest.
w00t!
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Originally Posted by Aerian_Skybane
Well, last weekend when I was playing around a bit in quests in GWEN, I used a minimal amount of lockpicks (about 10, which, depending on your POV for a few hours of playtime, is either not enough or too many, I am a sucker for chests), and I kept about half (4/10) (par for course). Last weekend, I only used about 6 and kept 5 of them. Not a single gold item though lol. Other weekends I ahve used 20 or so and kept less than a third, others I get real lucky. Haven't noticed to low of a trend so I never really cared. I have a minimal retain percentage... I never cared to go crazy on the titles thing so I have no idea what I have to be honest.
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Though the breakage rate seems to be the same, I swear that GWEN returns far less golds in both NM and HM. Most of my guildies don't even bother to open GWEN chests unless it's in HM, and then only if they're going for the title.
What many people don't realize is that chest opening is only worthwhile if you open tons of them. One good drop can literally pay for a hundred or more keys. My r8 15^50 Tyrian Chaos Axe is proof of that (and with a normal key, before picks were around).
Anon-e-mouse
The number of 10+ on the trot breakage's that I've had is completely unreal.. and people then say it's not statistically significant..
Ok so take a normal 6 sided monopoly dice. The chances of you rolling a 1 or 2 is 33%. Try, just try rolling a 3,4,5 or 6, 10 times on the trot. You WILL NOT manage it. And yet it happens to me, in game with remarkable regularity.
Ok so take a normal 6 sided monopoly dice. The chances of you rolling a 1 or 2 is 33%. Try, just try rolling a 3,4,5 or 6, 10 times on the trot. You WILL NOT manage it. And yet it happens to me, in game with remarkable regularity.
Talarian
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Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse
The number of 10+ on the trot breakage's that I've had is completely unreal.. and people then say it's not statistically significant..
Ok so take a normal 6 sided monopoly dice. The chances of you rolling a 1 or 2 is 33%. Try, just try rolling a 3,4,5 or 6, 10 times on the trot. You WILL NOT manage it. And yet it happens to me, in game with remarkable regularity. |
The best way to conclusively test this would be to have someone with max titles in luck and treasure hunter open 1000 chests. I'm not sure of the numbers, but I assume some chests will have a 100% success rate. All chests will have a 90%+ success rate. Those results are the only ones that would prove if the OP is right or just QQing.
EDIT: Just occurred to me that if we wanted to get really technical, we could take Anet's lockpick chance equation, take a sample size of 1000 picks, and then run a regression analysis to see if the variables Anet has chosen to to base the retain rate on are actually statistically significant (they have to be, Anet built the system). If not then there is something screwy going on here.
Antheus
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Originally Posted by Kazza
well I think the whole retaining percentage is calculated wrong. I have done this many times for to push up my lucky title and I based this on 100 chests
100 chest opened broke 55 picks retained 45 considering this was a 79% retention rate and lucky title 3 and chest title 3 I queried this with a-net they basically said it was all down to pure luck. while luck is all well and good i reckon that they forgot something in their calculations of lockpicks and lucky titles is the disapointment of the poor guy that constantly breaks picks. I am hoping that they change this very soon cos I refuse to open any chests with lockpicks in any mode until they fix this or bring in a fairer method of chest and lucky title |
You've gotten some results. What you now need to determine is whether that result is relevant.
Look at it this way.
You flip a coin twice. It falls heads both times. You conclude that the chance of getting tails is 0% You flip it twice more. Once heads, once tails. Now you conclude that the chance is 25%.
But your result is not statistically significant.
In order to validate significance, you'd need to open perhaps some 500-1000 chest, in some 10-20 different areas. After that, you'd compare all these results, and determine the accuracy.
Your current result however is 45% retention +/- 900%. In other words, it doesn't say anything.
crazybanshee
I've been chest running snowman dungeon nm to up my title, I've done almost 1000 chests there so far (I think, I'm not logged in atm), I should have 60% retention rate. There's usually 5 chests in the dungeon. I find that I retain 2-3 picks on average. I will have runs where I retain 4, and some where I retain none or 1. I'm sure it about averages to 60%, but quite frankly it's not an overall 60% chance, it's each individual chest has a 60% chance. Maybe my ele has fat fingers and can't pick anything. who knows.
strcpy
Our state lottery "pick 4" just had a really amusing thing happen - look here for the numbers on 3/3/2008 evening and midday plus 3/4/2008 evening and note that the lottery picked the same four numbers *three* times in a row!
So yes, even in physical systems rare things do occur. This made the news for most of the state on 3/4 including the lottery commission investigating if the machines were malfunctioning (they were not).
Our local news even had a short two or three minute interview with a mathematics professor from the University of Tennessee where he said pretty much exactly the same stuff said here - the reasoning behind people thinking this would prove the system broken is because they lack a basic understanding of statistics and believe things such a "The Law of Averages" actually exists.
So yes, even in physical systems rare things do occur. This made the news for most of the state on 3/4 including the lottery commission investigating if the machines were malfunctioning (they were not).
Our local news even had a short two or three minute interview with a mathematics professor from the University of Tennessee where he said pretty much exactly the same stuff said here - the reasoning behind people thinking this would prove the system broken is because they lack a basic understanding of statistics and believe things such a "The Law of Averages" actually exists.
Fril Estelin
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Originally Posted by strcpy
Our state lottery "pick 4" just had a really amusing thing happen - look here for the numbers on 3/3/2008 evening and midday plus 3/4/2008 evening and note that the lottery picked the same four numbers *three* times in a row!
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Given enough time (possibly billions of years), if you put a big-enough group of monkeys in front of keyboards and make them type, they'll eventually write a book by a famous litterature author (he used the French author Proust).
That's the funny thing with random, given enough people, you'll have complaints that it's not random for their! (it's actually quite hard to decide whether it's really random from the output, as non-random values could be thrown in without any significant change)
So who's lying now? The OP or the dice?
Buzzer
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Originally Posted by Malice Black
Opening chests with Lockpicks in NM is retarded anyway. Most NM chests drop purples anyway. If you insist on opening NM chests, use keys.
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