Is Lockpick Retention Rate a Lie? - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

tmakinen

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

www.mybearfriend.net

Servants of Fortuna [SoF]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 10:34 - 41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzer

Lockpicks are more profitable than keys when opening high-end normal mode chests. This even assumes you pay 1.5k for lockpicks and have 0 Lucky and Treasure Hunter.

Um, no. As listed by the table on the linked page, for a 600g chest (typical NM high end chest) your retention rate must be at least 60% if you're buying picks directly from a merchant. This corresponds to r4 in both Treasure Hunting and Lucky. With 1250g lockpicks from a reseller the break-even point goes down to 52%, or r2/r3 Treasure and Lucky (either way). If you factor in the investment to titles, the rate goes down to 42% which can be obtained through r1 in either track. Only the ludicrously expensive (for their actual worth) 1250g NM chests are always more profitable to be opened with picks.

I should know since I'm the original author of the table

Buzzer

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Nov 2005

Australia

18 Mar 2008 at 11:03 - 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmakinen

Only the ludicrously expensive (for their actual worth) 1250g NM chests are always more profitable to be opened with picks.

That's what I meant by high end.

I know how the table works.

tmakinen

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

www.mybearfriend.net

Servants of Fortuna [SoF]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 11:56 - 43

Then you're getting confused with terminology. Everything from 600g up and including is 'high end' by ANet's own definition. If you really want you could speak about 'highest end' chests but then you'd have to define it separately anyway.

Antheus

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

18 Mar 2008 at 14:26 - 44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Given enough time (possibly billions of years), if you put a big-enough group of monkeys in front of keyboards and make them type, they'll eventually write a book by a famous litterature author (he used the French author Proust).

Internet has proven this to be incorrect

Kattar

EXCESSIVE FLUTTERCUSSING

Join Date: Mar 2007

SMS (lolgw2placeholder)

Me/

18 Mar 2008 at 14:29 - 45

No, statistics do not lie.

And I don't mean your statistics. I mean statistics in general. Those percentages are there for a reason.

Unless you just think Anet is lying to us. <.< >.> Conspiracy theory much?

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 14:45 - 46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Internet has proven this to be incorrect

Give Internet a billion years, and I'm convinced (since there's no proof) that it'll generate works greater than everything that's been written before. Of course if we can manage to still exist in a billion years. And maybe then the OP will definitely be convinced of lockpick retain rates accurateness!

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 17:03 - 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Give Internet a billion years, and I'm convinced (since there's no proof) that it'll generate works greater than everything that's been written before. Of course if we can manage to still exist in a billion years. And maybe then the OP will definitely be convinced of lockpick retain rates accurateness!

Actually, math and physics has proven that "a thousand monkeys writting hamlet theory wrong."
My physics major friend actually had a homework assignment that was that problem (for quantim mechanics to gain a better understand of "really big and small numbers"). It was something along the lines of, if 10,000 monkeys randomly type on keyboards (ignoring puncutation and capital/lower case letters and numbers) 1 letter every second from now untill the end of time (the predicted time when all protons in the universe will decay, which was some given number of years [which then had to be converted into seconds]) what were the odds that they would type out Hamlet?

The correct answer to the problem was still something like 1^-80 % (ie, the probability that it would be done, even if you were given the entire history of the universe to do it).

Kazza

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

UK

TLH

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 17:16 - 48

sorry to differ and to conclude my input on this but 79% means 79 out of 100because percentage is based on the 100 number there fore your quote to open up 1000/500 chests to gain the correct percentage frankly does not equate in any terms numerically

Djynn

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Mar 2008

Flanders, Antwerp, Belgium

GIRL

N/

18 Mar 2008 at 17:57 - 49

As a player thats been around for over 30 months i do have some questions about this lockpick issue aswell.

Sorry to say i've seen the reactions of some of the ppl and to be honest i'm a bit shocked, not that i want to get on a bad foot with anyone, but here's the way i see it.

First of all there's ppl that have reacted which have been around for a longer period, meaning:

ppl that have had the benefit of getting their title during the period that chests were still fixed.

Ok guys might be nice for us to have an advantage on other ppl but:

- chests are random pops now.
- not all chests are classed as high end (fe like the proph. desert).
- new ppl want to get their title aswell you know:-)

Second:

I wonder why you are calculating statistically, meaning:

- it only works if you use the same startingpoint, most ppl open chests while they are ingame on different locations.
- it only works on a fixed number of chests being 100 cause anet uses a %.
- there is more than one % on chests determined where you are ingame opening a chest, why can't there just be one % for Nm and Hm, start by asking yourselves that question.
- Does anyone really know what anet's calculation is, cause it doesn't make sence.

i could say here i got r4 lucky, r4 chest, r4 id.

But and i opened now more than 1200 chests here goes:

We were with 2 ppl:

i kept over 84% while the person that was with me broke over half, she's complained about it, anet's response: its all down to luck.

I don't think its got anything to do with luck, i even retain in Hm over 30 % when I shouldn't be doing it.

Just a reminder:

what determines the retention of a lockpick ?

- random possibility of a chest being there?
- your location and presence on a location (time you play and have or have not been on somewhere ingame?)
-your chest title?
-your lucky title?
-the number of ppl in your team (the average of the teamplayers?)

there could be more %, i dunno, but anet doesn't seem to be willing to tell us mere mortals what is actually their calculation.

I think the calculation will always be wrong cause its based on what was and not on what GW is now.

-! randomness

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 18:37 - 50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Djynn

anet doesn't seem to be willing to tell us mere mortals what is actually their calculation.

On the Official GW Wiki maintained by Anet, the formula is clearly stated:
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Lockpick

P.S. to HawkofStorms: in the statistics course, you: 1) don't care about the rules of physics; 2) have an unlimited supply of monkeys (implied by 1).

(it's mostly a rhetorical argument, not one to take seriously, at least not more than what a % represents since it's nothing really concrete)

GForce9x

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2006

D/W

18 Mar 2008 at 19:13 - 51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kazza

sorry to differ and to conclude my input on this but 79% means 79 out of 100because percentage is based on the 100 number there fore your quote to open up 1000/500 chests to gain the correct percentage frankly does not equate in any terms numerically

True, but 79/100 = 790/1000 =7900/10000 = 395/500 = 3950/5000 etc. etc.
Percent is derived from 'per one-hundred', but as far as statistics are concerned, you need to have a large enough sample size in order for the results to be significant. One day you might open 100 chests and retain 30 picks. The next day you might open another 100 and retain 80. Whenever you are sampling you are going to get variation and some rare cases of extreme outliers, but over the long haul (significant sample size), it will all average out to what it should be.

For example, if you do a survey of Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi on 5 random people and 4 of them say they prefer Coke, would it be safe to say that 80% (4/5 = 80/100) of the population prefers Coke?

Although 100 seems like a lot as far as time/gold spent, it is nowhere near enough to give you an accurate reading.

GForce9x

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Dec 2006

D/W

18 Mar 2008 at 19:15 - 52

I don't know why all the bickering. 63.9% of all statistics are made up anyways.

Kazza

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

UK

TLH

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 19:24 - 53

Gforce u may have a point there but it still remains that overall I know I break 1/2 picks on chests opened in normal mode which tells me something is not correct and does not deem the 79% chance operative word chance the game tells me I have to retain picks

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 19:25 - 54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

P.S. to HawkofStorms: in the statistics course, you: 1) don't care about the rules of physics; 2) have an unlimited supply of monkeys (implied by 1).

(it's mostly a rhetorical argument, not one to take seriously, at least not more than what a % represents since it's nothing really concrete)

I know, which is why I found that to be such a hillarious homework problem to actually have to do.

Diddy bow

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Oct 2006

Jawsome!!!!!!!!!!!

looking for one :p

A/D

18 Mar 2008 at 19:30 - 55

Quote:

Originally Posted by GForce9x

I don't know why all the bickering. 63.9% of all statistics are made up anyways.

Im sooooo quoting that :P

Anyways, a few people having bad luck with lockpicks is bound to happen.

Djynn

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Mar 2008

Flanders, Antwerp, Belgium

GIRL

N/

18 Mar 2008 at 19:34 - 56

statistically how many ppl started playing GW after:

Year 1
Year 2
Year 3

Can you add a % or a promille to that one?

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 19:34 - 57

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

I know, which is why I found that to be such a hillarious homework problem to actually have to do.

Yeah, next you're going to have to set up a real experiment: 1) go to 5 zoos and gather 10,000 monkeys; 2) buy 10,000 keyboards wired to a big fat server; 3) write the program to run the crazy experiment; 4) start counter until 1 billion years

So the real question is: will you reach your real lockpick retention rate (provided your stats don't change) before they write 1984 (rather than Hamlet)?

P.S.: has anyone thought of what could happen to the lockpick retention rate if your statistics change? I mean the lockpick broken counter may not be reinitialised and then a shifting subroutine may activate to try to adapt to the change.
/end of geeky mode

Tenebrae

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2007

Spain

LHV

R/N

18 Mar 2008 at 19:46 - 58

Retention rate is BS , its just a number , only based on player lvl , TH title and Lucky title . Is not based on the chests u opened or u r going to open , its plain stupid to think "hey , today im gonna open 100 chests , my rate says im gonna retain 56 lockpicks ! yeeeee" .... sorry to break ur dream but hell no.
I think it goes like this , go open a chest , u press "use lockpick" button , a stupid unseen number is affected by Random function and voilá ... equal or below ur % ? u retain , if not blam , lockpick broken , end of story.

PD: Dreaming is cheap , lockpicks most of the times are not.

Talarian

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Feb 2008

The Ninth Legion [TNL]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 19:57 - 59

I think some people are still confused here. When it says you have a retain rate of 49%, that does not meant that the system is counting your next 100 picks, and randomly assigning 49 of them to retain.

Rather, there will be a random number generator somewhere in the system, and that number will then be put through the equation, one of the terms of which being your retain rate. The result of the equation will then be compared to an internal table, which will state whether or not the pick is actually retained. Each time you use a pick a new random number is generated. Thus, a change in your statistics will only have the affect of increasing your future pick's retention chances.

The problem with statistics though is that in order to get true values for things, you'd have to have an infinite number of observations. That's why people use tools such as regression analysis, confidence intervals and the like, so that they can say they are 90% sure there result is correct, or that it lies within given boundaries. STATISTICS IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.

If this lockpick thing really does bother you that much, I strongly suggest that you look into statistics, it really isn't as hard as it seems at first.

Sol Deathgard

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Dec 2005

Shadows of the Dragon

W/N

18 Mar 2008 at 20:17 - 60

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomas.knbk

18 chests is not quite enough to draw any conclusion from.

ok how about this then...
last week I ranked up in Treasure & Lucky

Before my retention rate was 58%
I could fill up my inventory (which I have room for 30 items) and break 9-11 picks

Now that my retention rate is 63%
By the time I fill up my inventory (Still 30 items) I have broken 15-20 picks

This is not a one time thing, I was Chest running with 58% for about a month before I ranked up to 63% last week & have seen the number of picks I keep drop instead of rise. Maybe some kinda bug was introduced during the last update that made the retention rate actually the break rate instead since I ranked up about the time of the last update.

Whatever it is, this needs to be fixed, or there is really no reason for us to be using picks anymore.

Divine is Faith

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jan 2007

FL

Rt/

18 Mar 2008 at 20:44 - 61

Quote:

I tend to retain around 50%

I also have a wide pool to see that result from.

My lucky title goes up faster than my unluck...

Don't think I can help you, seeing as I am lucky

Of course your lucky title is gonna go up faster than your unlucky. If you are lucky and keep your key your Luck title goes up by 250 points But if you are unlucky your unlucky points only go up by 25. So you would have to lose 10 lockpicks for each lock pick you retain in order for you unlucky to go up as fast. I have had both streaks myself some days I retain most my lock picks and some days I seem I cant keep a single one. My rit does have lvl 4 Lucky and lvl 3 treasure hunter so my odds are probably better than alot of other players.

Tenebrae

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2007

Spain

LHV

R/N

18 Mar 2008 at 21:34 - 62

Quote:

Originally Posted by Divine is Faith

Of course your lucky title is gonna go up faster than your unlucky. If you are lucky and keep your key your Luck title goes up by 250 points But if you are unlucky your unlucky points only go up by 25. So you would have to lose 10 lockpicks for each lock pick you retain in order for you unlucky to go up as fast. I have had both streaks myself some days I retain most my lock picks and some days I seem I cant keep a single one. My rit does have lvl 4 Lucky and lvl 3 treasure hunter so my odds are probably better than alot of other players.

Erm ... soz but unlucky title rank is lucky title/10 so thats why u earn 25 points , so the % u earn on each title when u break ( for unlucky ) or retain ( for lucky ) its the same

Sol Deathgard

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Dec 2005

Shadows of the Dragon

W/N

18 Mar 2008 at 23:04 - 63

while gaile gray was on I mentioned the retention rate of lockpicks seemed to be lower then it should be. she stated that she talked to her guildies about it & from what they told her they definetly need to check into this issue. So apparently it is a problem, & hopefully will be fixed in the next update or so.

Sol Deathgard

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Dec 2005

Shadows of the Dragon

W/N

19 Mar 2008 at 00:08 - 64

After this last update I did a few chest runs to test the retention rate, I broke 8 outta 30, seems to be fixed. ty anet.

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

19 Mar 2008 at 00:13 - 65

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Deathgard

After this last update I did a few chest runs to test the retention rate, I broke 8 outta 30, seems to be fixed. ty anet.

Yeah, the parinoid people are happy. Everybody move along.

Anon-e-mouse

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2006

@ Home

League Of Friends [LOF]

R/Mo

19 Mar 2008 at 00:28 - 66

[quote=Talarian]It's not about rolling a die, its about tossing a coin. Assuming that retain is heads and break is tails, you could easily land on tails 10, 20, 30 times in a row. Ok, I hear you say, that only works if the retain rate is 50%. If your retain rate is lower, convert the difference % of heads into tails. If higher, do the opposite. You can still get 10, 20, 30 tails in a row (I hope that makes as much sense to everyone else as it does to me!)

I used a dice analogy, because my retain rate in HM is 33%, so that means there's also 67% chance of a break, and not 50/50 as a coin toss would give, so a die roll of 1 or 2 would be a retain, and a roll of 3,4,5 or 6 would be a break. You are very unlikely to roll 3,4,5 or 6, 10 consecutive times in the real world. And yet I've had this consecutive breaking streak happen to me at least twice in the past month alone in game.

Talarian

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Feb 2008

The Ninth Legion [TNL]

E/

19 Mar 2008 at 02:21 - 67

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse

I used a dice analogy, because my retain rate in HM is 33%, so that means there's also 67% chance of a break, and not 50/50 as a coin toss would give, so a die roll of 1 or 2 would be a retain, and a roll of 3,4,5 or 6 would be a break. You are very unlikely to roll 3,4,5 or 6, 10 consecutive times in the real world. And yet I've had this consecutive breaking streak happen to me at least twice in the past month alone in game.

I'd say you would be very unlikely to roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6 100 times in a row, not 10. There is roughly a 1.7% chance of it happening (0.67^10) which may seem to be extremely low, but from a statistical standpoint it really isn't. If there was a 1.7% chance of a plane crashing, would you get on it? I certainly wouldn't

strcpy

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2005

One of Many [ONE]

19 Mar 2008 at 04:03 - 68

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Deathgard

while gaile gray was on I mentioned the retention rate of lockpicks seemed to be lower then it should be. she stated that she talked to her guildies about it & from what they told her they definetly need to check into this issue. So apparently it is a problem, & hopefully will be fixed in the next update or so.

No, that says they will look into it. That happens all the time and the vast vast majority of the time it comes back as "working as stated". Too many people have absolutely no understanding of what retention rates mean and when it doesn't match what they think it does something is wrong with the system.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Deathgard

Whatever it is, this needs to be fixed, or there is really no reason for us to be using picks anymore.

I highly suggest you quit then as it can not be "fixed" in the way you want.

There has been no evidence presented whatsoever to indicate there is a problem. OTOH there has also been no evidence whatsoever that it is correct.
At the very least retention rates are not grossly incorrect as there is enough data to show that - in fact the few places I have seen where rates are kept for long periods of time it nears what Anet publishes as the retention rate. As such even if they do find a bug it isn't going to change it much at all - it will change so little that your numbers given will still happen frequently.

Master Sword Keeper

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Sep 2006

Dead Isle

Farmers Of Woe [FoW]

W/

19 Mar 2008 at 05:55 - 69

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malice Black

Moral of the story - Lockpicks are gold sinks.

I never retain in HM, and rarely in NM. Opening chests with Lockpicks in NM is retarded anyway. Most NM chests drop purples anyway. If you insist on opening NM chests, use keys.

64% Retain NM always.

15-25% HM.

Morale... Happy. =)

Sister Rosette

Lady Fie

Join Date: Aug 2005

Sapporo

Tha Skulls [Ts]

D/W

19 Mar 2008 at 13:04 - 70

*Shrugs* After a while you just learn to only use the ones that drop from monsters, rather than buying them. If you get something good, hey, great. If not, no coin lost on your part.

Tenebrae

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2007

Spain

LHV

R/N

19 Mar 2008 at 13:50 - 71

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sister Rosette

*Shrugs* After a while you just learn to only use the ones that drop from monsters, rather than buying them. If you get something good, hey, great. If not, no coin lost on your part.

if u are a casual player and dont give a shit about TH title thats ur best option , if not , lockpicks are the best.
I think my previous post was pretty clear , luck is a bitch . That Number , float , 100 sides dice or whatever u may call it affected by the Random function when u open a chest with a lockpick doesnt give a RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GO if u opened 10000 or 10 chests before or how many lockpicks u have in ur inventory . The point is , saying that lockpick retain rate is bugged becoz u have a rush of bad luck is far beyond paranoia .... its plain stupid unless u test it on low lvl chests like Shin Jea with a 90% or more and u BREAk 100 straight lockpicks. Then MAYBE , and just MAYBE u r right .... other cases , nah.

Grubcat

Academy Page

Join Date: Aug 2005

Team of Oblivious Targets [TOOT]

19 Mar 2008 at 14:17 - 72

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sister Rosette

*Shrugs* After a while you just learn to only use the ones that drop from monsters, rather than buying them. If you get something good, hey, great. If not, no coin lost on your part.

I'm not going for the Lucky/Unlucky title, except incidentally through casual use, so I buy some picks when I feel flush, otherwise just hope for drops. It 'feels' as though the dropped picks are retained more often for me than the bought ones, but maybe I just feel the pain of losing the bought ones more.

I have idly wondered- if I have 5 picks in my bag, and retain one 3 times in a row, am I trying the same one all the time , or are 3 different picks used by the computer? Any statistical types worked this out yet?

Talarian

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Feb 2008

The Ninth Legion [TNL]

E/

19 Mar 2008 at 14:26 - 73

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grubcat

I have idly wondered- if I have 5 picks in my bag, and retain one 3 times in a row, am I trying the same one all the time , or are 3 different picks used by the computer? Any statistical types worked this out yet?

I doubt the system works like that, it will probably just run a check on a variable called HAS_PICK, and if it breaks a subroutine will be called stating NUM_PICKS=NUM_PICKS-1, IF NUMPICKS=0 THEN HAS_PICK=0 ELSE HAS_PICK=1 or something along those lines (I haven't programmed since BASIC so don't call me on my terminology or syntax).

However, if it did work like that, there are two ways it could turn out:

1) The comp does just pick the first one it finds every time.

2) It picks one at random, and there is a 4% chance that it was the same pick every time, given that you already know what pick it was the first time (i.e. there is a 20% chance you'll get it next time, and a 20% chance the time after that, for three picks in a row)

Quaker

Hell's Protector

Join Date: Aug 2005

Canada

Brothers Disgruntled

19 Mar 2008 at 14:38 - 74

Probability-wise, there's a chance that someone can open 1000 chests and break 1000 lockpicks. Someone could also open 1000 chests with only 1 lockpick.

El Presidente

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Lookout Post #1, Andes Mountains

Custer Was Ganked [7th]

R/

28 Mar 2008 at 18:43 - 75

Having just recently maxed Treasure Hunter and tracking my retention rate every 100 chests opened (normal mode) for the last 5000 chests (all in Irontoe's ~ which imho was the fastest), my average overall retained rate was 69.8%.

This is about the quoted 68% rate I had; however, I did find that in my last 1000 chests, my average increased to 71.5% overall...even retaining high-70% and sometimes mid-80%. I also found that I hit the higher % in EU districts, specifically ~ the Spanish and Russian districts, though I only ran there mainly for less lag purposes. I usually ran from 4pm-10pm CST and all day on weekends/holidays. International districts were absolutely horrible for me % wise...the few times I ran 100 chests per, I was far short in %...

Irontoe's also found me breaking even on lockpick costs (for the present time). I didn't sell unID's to pay for them and recovered the 100k = 80 picks by selling junk to the merch and/or the good mods in game. I say for the present because I now have 7 mules full of req 9 gold to sell off !!! I'd also obtained many, many Sup Monk/Nec/Ele runes (the higher cost runes) and about 20 Sup Vigs in the last 1500-2000 chests...why, I don't know, but they were bonus money...

There were many times I broke 5-8 picks in a row. There were also many times I retained 20+ in a row. Again, this was all in NM as I was going for the dual Lucky and Treasure titles, not for the Wisdom inclusive. FYI: I ran 1000+ Istani chests for my last 250k (roughly) Lucky points and then my last few Irontoe chests to time the two for max.

I'd bought many picks from many different sellers..both the dropped picks and town owner sellers. Some were lucky percent-wise; others were not. It didn't matter if I had 10 picks in inventory or a stack. Random or superstition, I shyed away from repeat buys from a few sellers.

So overall, I've found the % in retaining lockpicks for me was slightly better than the 68% given, in the manner and districts/times I ran.

KIDGOOCH

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Apr 2006

MD

R/Mo

28 Mar 2008 at 21:11 - 76

I spent 80k on festival tickets to get my char to R3 Lucky/ R2 Unlucky I have R3 Wisdom and R3 Treasure Hunter also most of the time I retain enough to say its ok, but recently I started to try and fill out my Cartography titles, and broke 5 picks in ASCALON... Something is amiss, I think...

arual

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Aug 2006

29 Mar 2008 at 01:54 - 77

When I was doing some good olde Remains of Sahlahja runs in Hard Mode for Lightbringer/Sunspear points I tracked my overall profit/losses and lockpick retention rate from opening the Locked Chests. My apparent chance to retain and my actual retention rate were pretty much the same and after selling some of the rarer skins I found I actually made a profit, albeit a small one. Admittedly my sample size (of ~250 chests) wasn't large enough to be too statistically relevant but nevertheless it seemed to be relatively 'average' - which is pretty much what I'd expected.

Miss Puddles

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jun 2005

California

Shiverpeaks Search And Rescue [Lost]

Me/

29 Mar 2008 at 15:04 - 78

i don't know how people are saying they have something like a 60% retention rate when the max possible is 43% >_>
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Lockpick

El Presidente

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Lookout Post #1, Andes Mountains

Custer Was Ganked [7th]

R/

29 Mar 2008 at 15:13 - 79

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Puddles

i don't know how people are saying they have something like a 60% retention rate when the max possible is 43% >_>
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Lockpick

Factor in the Lucky title to the lockpick retention rate. At maxed Treasure and maxed Lucky, my retention rate is now 73% in NM (the 600g chests); the 43% show on Wiki is HM...

When players state any % above the 43%, they are running normal mode chests; hope that helps...

Oh...to answer the OP's question, which is the point of this thread overall, after running and tracking retention rates for my last 5000
chests...and 1000 Istani chests ~ I found absolutely nothing wrong with the stated retention rate I had earned.

chessyang

Not far from Elite

Join Date: Apr 2006

Florida

W/

29 Mar 2008 at 16:34 - 80

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Puddles

i don't know how people....

really? i get 63% on some chest areas. rank 5 hunter and 4 luck. like El Presidente said....

Shot at 2008-03-29[IMG]

SS for "SS or GTFO people"

**edit**
oopss!! stupid chat log....