Celestial Rat.

Gli

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Doing 150 tokens worth of quests on 6 characters so far, I still didn't get a rat. That's 300 fortunes, for the mathematically impaired. 3 characters to go.

arcanemacabre

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gli
Doing 150 tokens worth of quests on 6 characters so far, I still didn't get a rat. That's 300 fortunes, for the mathematically impaired. 3 characters to go.
?? I thought it was 3 tokens per fortune, which would mean 50 fortunes, not 300... unless I'm missing something.

Gli

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Quote:
Originally Posted by arcanemacabre
?? I thought it was 3 tokens per fortune, which would mean 50 fortunes, not 300... unless I'm missing something.
You missed an implied multiplication.

150 tokens worth of quest times 6 characters = 900 tokens = 300 fortunes.

arcanemacabre

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gli
You missed an implied multiplication.

150 tokens worth of quest times 6 characters = 900 tokens = 300 fortunes.
Oops, nevermind me. I read it as you made 150 tokens from 6 characters. Sorry!

Onarik Amrak

Onarik Amrak

Forge Runner

Join Date: Mar 2007

Astral Revenants

P/W

I got the rat doing the quests for the 3rd time with my ranger.

Saraphim

Saraphim

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2006

The Hand of Omega [WHO]

E/

150 fortunes, no rat. Not enough piggehs for trade so no celestials full stop.

This isn't really making me feel like farming ingredients for the chefs all weekend.

manitoba1073

manitoba1073

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2006

ManitobaShipyards Refit and Repair Station

(SFC)Star Fleet Command,(TDE)The Daggerfall elite,(SOoM)Secret order of Magi

350 fortunes used so far and no rat. got those from the quests on my secondary account

still got 11 chars on my primary account to do after I hit golden which will be soon.

Vl Vl D

Vl Vl D

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2007

Australia

[DVDF]

Ive done almost 400 and I made my wife do 300 before she cooked my meal
and still no rodent.

Antithesis

Antithesis

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2007

BrisneyLand

Sphincter Says [What]

W/

10 characters and 350 fortunes later...third last fortune and a rat finally dropped. The drop rate stats appear to be the same as last year (0.33%).

Good luck rat-hunters, my festival grind is over

Azalyn

Academy Page

Join Date: May 2006

Guardians of The Heroes

R/Me

I opened over 200 fortunes with no rat. Lucky me!

Cortez_Corleone

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Jan 2008

Phoenixes of Ascalon

D/W

My first lunar fortune dropped a rat ^^ It's quite cute

Dante the Warlord

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jul 2006

W/R

Hey just curious but did those of you who got the rat in 40 - 100 fortunes open them ALL at once? my hunch is that the lucky aura might have something to do with the drop rate of the mini...

Numa Pompilius

Numa Pompilius

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

At an Insit.. Intis... a house.

Live Forever Or Die Trying [GLHF]

W/Me

I've run out of quests and am no good at racing; is there any other way of obtaining reasonable numbers of lunar tokens?
I tried killing mobs, but I estimate I get one token per 100 killed mobs; it'd take me forever to farm enough fortunes to get a rat that way.

I Will Heal You Ally

I Will Heal You Ally

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Feb 2007

In my HoM

Canthan Refugees [TOGO]

E/Rt

Lucky I used up 189 and got none. Had to buy at the end

Free Runner

Free Runner

Forge Runner

Join Date: Oct 2005

GW2G

Knights Of The Sacred Light [KSL]

Opened 20 on my Ranger = No Rat

Opened 10 on my Mesmer = No Rat

Had one token on my Necro, went and played RPS and won a fortune and blue drink. Though i might aswell open it. Complained on Guild Chat about probably not getting a rat until i'm into the 400s and...got a Rat with that one off fortune.

eeks

eeks

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jul 2006

Sydney, Australia

Lubricated Volcano Love [Club]

Rt/Mo

After reading through the topic, I feel guilty admitting that I got one rat on my third fortune, and another on my 15th. :\

Oh and Dante, I opened them all at once.

seut

seut

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jun 2005

Europa

450fortunes.... no rat

gj Anet, thx for the lies \o/

The Real Avalon

The Real Avalon

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jun 2006

Belgium, Ostend.

Mo/A

300+ fortunes, ratless still

arcanemacabre

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

I'm usually not that lucky, but I did manage to get one after about 100 fortunes. My wife opened around 80 and didn't get one yet.

Pan Head

Pan Head

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Dec 2006

W/R

this is so much BS...I dont like beetle race. Done quest till i am sick of running and no rat. Have a dent in my left mouse button from opening the stupid things and no dang rat.

500ish = 0 rat

party animal title going up rapid but would trade title for rat. lol

papryk

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Feb 2006

Nancy

The Autonomy[?????????]

3 in a row xd

Sh1ver

Sh1ver

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

It's funny some of you are blaming ANET for your plain stupidity.

For those that still don't understand, or is aware, the probability of actually getting a rat from a Fortune is 1/300. With this in mind, you'd know when to consider yourselves lucky/unlucky.

Numa Pompilius

Numa Pompilius

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

At an Insit.. Intis... a house.

Live Forever Or Die Trying [GLHF]

W/Me

@Sh1ver: And you know this how? The droprate for the minipig was about 0.4%, but Gaile stated droprate for minirat was increased to compensate for the fact that it's not awarded during finale like the minipig was. In heaps.

From what we've heard in this thread, I'd guess droprate is perhaps double that of the minipig, or roughly 1%.

EDIT: And at least I am not blaming ANet "for my plain stupidity". I reported having opened about 200 fortunes without getting a pig to help others estimate the odds. Right now I'm trying to find a way to farm tokens, as I've run out of quests and am a pretty poor racer.

Kiragi Yagami

Kiragi Yagami

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Nov 2007

Elician Mercinaries [eLm] Leader.

E/Me

I guess ive been lucky this weekend, ive opened about 40-50 fortunes and 2 rats already. still have a few more characters to do the quests on, so hoping for another rat or two.

Saraphim

Saraphim

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2006

The Hand of Omega [WHO]

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sh1ver
It's funny some of you are blaming ANET for your plain stupidity.

For those that still don't understand, or is aware, the probability of actually getting a rat from a Fortune is 1/300. With this in mind, you'd know when to consider yourselves lucky/unlucky.
Funny, I just went back through the thread and don't see anyone "blaming "ANET" for anything. What plain stupidity would that be then? Personally I just reported what I found, and mentioned it's not making me feel like farming the ingredients.

Also, I haven't actually seen any official figures for drop rates, so how pray tell should I measure my stupidity? Oh wait... yes I should trawl the forums, wikis and official site to gather all the information I can before deciding whether to do the quests!

lol

Steboy93

Steboy93

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Feb 2007

Trinity of the Ascended [ToA] | Ex-Officer [TAM]

W/

About 200 fortunes, no rats yet

Vl Vl D

Vl Vl D

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2007

Australia

[DVDF]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saraphim
Funny, I just went back through the thread and don't see anyone "blaming "ANET" for anything. What plain stupidity would that be then? Personally I just reported what I found, and mentioned it's not making me feel like farming the ingredients.

Also, I haven't actually seen any official figures for drop rates, so how pray tell should I measure my stupidity? Oh wait... yes I should trawl the forums, wikis and official site to gather all the information I can before deciding whether to do the quests!

lol

Was thinking the same thing. Now you know why shiver you dont have a social life in or out of GW.

Sh1ver

Sh1ver

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vl Vl D
Was thinking the same thing. Now you know why shiver you dont have a social life in or out of GW.
Lol. You must be some kind of idiot to be thinking this way and quite poor at Probability to not understand what 0.33% means.

Source:
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Miniature_Celestial_Rat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Numa Pompilius
...Gaile stated droprate for minirat was increased to compensate for the fact that it's not awarded during finale like the minipig was.
If this is in fact correct, then this obviously increases the chance and it is even more difficult to understand why people are opening up to 400 Fortunes and still not getting a Rat.

Plevron

Plevron

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Feb 2008

Erm... Kamadan?

Soft Spirits and Faint Whispers [SPFW]

D/

I got my rat, after about 100 fortunes, so I'm ok.
It could look better, but it's still awesome!

derc

Academy Page

Join Date: Nov 2007

Hand of the Divine [HOLY]

W/A

100 fortunes, no rat

Hailfall

Hailfall

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Aug 2005

Germany

Phantom Commando

N/

Go figure.. i buy 100+ lunar tokens on my main char and open them.. nothing.. I do quests on my Monk and turn in the tokens for fortunes and the very last one i get a rat.. ><

At least im happy i got one

Pyro maniac

Pyro maniac

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Apr 2006

0 fortunes, 0 rats ?

eloogosciu

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2007

TFGT

P/W

Just give mega uber haxor hard quest with celestial rat as a reward, but it really needs to be hard, maybe quiz about GW lore or killing 100 monsters solo >.> With this, some people (like me :O) will have chance to get it :/

Plevron

Plevron

Pre-Searing Cadet

Join Date: Feb 2008

Erm... Kamadan?

Soft Spirits and Faint Whispers [SPFW]

D/

Much like Free Runner on page 5- who opened one last fortune he had left on his necro and got one for those of you who don't know- every single fortune that you open COULD give you a rat! Just keep on trying like I did and you should get it!

Numa Pompilius

Numa Pompilius

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

At an Insit.. Intis... a house.

Live Forever Or Die Trying [GLHF]

W/Me

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sh1ver
Lol. You must be some kind of idiot to be thinking this way and quite poor at Probability to not understand what 0.33% means.

Source:
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Miniature_Celestial_Rat
Yeah, and where does that 0.33% figure come from? Assuming you didn't enter that into the Wiki yourself, of course.

Sh1ver

Sh1ver

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Numa Pompilius
Yeah, and where does that 0.33% figure come from? Assuming you didn't enter that into the Wiki yourself, of course.
Unfamiliar with Wiki's as well?

It doesn't take a minute to go to the "History" of the article and see it's authors and editors. If you wish, you can also contact them.

I see that the Official Wiki has already been edited and the value removed. So maybe there is some truth what you mentioned Gaile stated.
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Miniature_Celestial_Rat

Numa Pompilius

Numa Pompilius

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

At an Insit.. Intis... a house.

Live Forever Or Die Trying [GLHF]

W/Me

Quote:
Originally Posted by troll
It doesn't take a minute to go to the "History" of the article and see it's authors and editors.
And if you'd done that you'd have seen that the 0.33% estimate was inherited from the 2007 droprate, not estimated from this years drops and not adjusted for Gailes stated change in droprate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by troll
If you wish, you can also contact them.
No need. I do not doubt the 2007 drop rate estimate.

.

Nadasee

Nadasee

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Mar 2006

1:st Celestial Rat on my Third Lunar Fortune
2: Celestial Rat arround 200 Lunar Fortunes

Sh1ver

Sh1ver

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Idiot
And if you'd done that you'd have seen that the 0.33% estimate was inherited from the 2007 droprate, not estimated from this years drops and not adjusted for Gailes stated change in droprate.

No need. I do not doubt the 2007 drop rate estimate.
Well, so much for your foolish accusation:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Idiot
Assuming you didn't enter that into the Wiki yourself, of course.

Sh1ver

Sh1ver

Banned

Join Date: Feb 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vl Vl D
I was refering to you saying that people were complaing about Anet not your wiki reading skills. I must of realy hit home about being a loner.....anyhow cant wait around here replying to you when ive got friends to hang with.
You're indeed hilarious. If you can't see a single post in this thread that contained a negative comment towards ANET, then you must be blind in addition to having a lack of understanding of probability. Not to mention your stellar spelling.

Let me not keep you back any further. Go hang out with your "friends", and have fun.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vl Vl D
>< omg now you pm me in game. Its just pixels get a life good luck cya.
I PM'd you ingame? You must really think people here are dumb enough to believe this, kid. Lol.

Proof? Post the IGN of the person who PM'd you!