The crash of the armbrace market... - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

captainccc

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2005

East Coast =D

Various GvG Guilds...Always Moving

Mo/

28 Feb 2008 at 11:55 - 201

Quote:

Originally Posted by Azagoth

Sod the Armbraces, I'd like to know where people get all these ectos from! I've been playing since day one, have all three campaigns and EotN yet haven't had a single ecto drop for me at all!

That HAS to be sarcasm...

Team Ramrod

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Sep 2007

[Here]

28 Feb 2008 at 12:39 - 202

Quote:

Originally Posted by pumpkin pie

why the hell would anyone buy an arm brace with 100k+40ecto?

Heh, I remember when they went for 100k+500ectos+

The Way Out

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

In my peanut brain

Zomg Zombies [OMG]

Mo/E

28 Feb 2008 at 15:26 - 203

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainccc

That HAS to be sarcasm...

I really hope so... or my stacks and obi armor make me a cheater. lol...

I am still astonished at the two things when it come to ecto...

Some people still don't know what it is...
Some people still don't know where to get it from...

Oh... and two more, things...

Some people still don't know where Underworld is...
Some people still haven't beaten it yet...

jamesrt2004

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2005

Wahey in a Hole

The Knights of Purity

R/

28 Feb 2008 at 16:31 - 204

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Way Out

I really hope so... or my stacks and obi armor make me a cheater. lol...

I am still astonished at the two things when it come to ecto...

Some people still don't know what it is...
Some people still don't know where to get it from...

Oh... and two more, things...

Some people still don't know where Underworld is...
Some people still haven't beaten it yet...

I know what it is
I do know where to get it from
I know where it is
but I've been there twice max once when i was like wtf is underworld another time to see if dual trapping works but never had a ectoplasm drop or seen one

the_jos

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Hard Mode Legion [HML]

N/

28 Feb 2008 at 17:08 - 205

Quote:

Originally Posted by KennyC

I think you are wrong mate, Ursan and cons are the ONLY reason for the drop in prices. I am assured by Anets claim that they have banned the dupers and removed all duped items and therefore dont count that as a factor! ;p
....
With the introduction of Ursan and cons there has been an influx of Ursan players in DOA using cons to farm.
.....
Before Ursan the amount of people in doa was small, now there are nearly always multiple districts, in fact it's turned into the new "Spamadan" - the thing with DOA is that it went from difficult to very easy overnight and that means more people farming there.

Still, as I said earlier and you probably did not read or pay real attention to, there is no economic reason for the Armbraces to be at a value of approx 150k or even lower.

Before the UB craze and after the duping thing, Armbraces were around 100+35e if I'm not mistaking.
That's about 275k. The price just before the duping was 315k.
Even that 315 and 275 could be considered high, the market was already adapting to a new situation....

There has been one change that has had very little attention in this discussion.
The Tuesday July 17, 2007 update made DoA a lot easier to play.
The duping incident happened less than a month later.
So people except the innovative guilds did not even have the chance to adjust to the new situation in DoA and there was an event that gave a good reason to avoid the area for a while.
At the same time as the duping incident, people started playing EotN, release August 31, 2007.
Some very rare weapons were dropping there, making it far more profitable to play there for a long period of time.

So all the time we had an area that changed considerably but people were ignoring it because of an incident and the release of the EotN expansion.

Now the area has gained full attention again and people see only one reason. UB!
Totally forgetting the July 17, 2007 update.

This update has already speed up DoA considerably.
I recall experienced DoA players stating they can probably match the times a DoA UB PUG takes to do a full run.
Now let's assume that there was no UB.
And early February the next [Kaiz] would have emerged and posted the 'New DoA Build'. Making it possible for PUG teams to do a full run in 3-4 hours including teaming.
That would have started the same craze, since those times would have been unheard of. Except for the few who already realised DoA became easier and were making profit there.

The prices would have trashed the same as they did now.
Perhaps even faster, since people would only need to max LB and not LB and Norn.
Causing an even more unbalanced buyers market with possible even lower prices.

As you can see, there are other large influences besides UB on the current Armbrace price.

The Way Out

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

In my peanut brain

Zomg Zombies [OMG]

Mo/E

28 Feb 2008 at 18:23 - 206

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamesrt2004

I know what it is
I do know where to get it from
I know where it is
but I've been there twice max once when i was like wtf is underworld another time to see if dual trapping works but never had a ectoplasm drop or seen one

You should hit UW a few times with a speed group. 50 minutes and a couple ecto for your troubles on average. Not bad if you need the monument for your HoM. I do UW about three times a day and average six ecto... give or take one. Either three NM runs or one NM and one HM. I always make a decent profit off of it (still nothing like DoA, though).

Aba

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Dec 2006

Vancouver,Canada

28 Feb 2008 at 18:47 - 207

Oh well all good things come to a end

Sunyavadin

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2008

N/

29 Feb 2008 at 14:37 - 208

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Way Out

I am still astonished at the two things when it come to ecto...

Some people still don't know what it is...
Some people still don't know where to get it from...

Oh... and two more, things...

Some people still don't know where Underworld is...
Some people still haven't beaten it yet...

Most people haven't beaten it, they just run half of it to farm ectos in HM then rinse and repeat.

The Way Out

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

In my peanut brain

Zomg Zombies [OMG]

Mo/E

29 Feb 2008 at 15:33 - 209

Funny thing is, I always get more ecto completing UW, as opposed to running a couple of the ecto runs (smites, terrors, or mindblades).

I know that most people don't complete. They lose out on the end chest (1 ecto nm, two ecto hm). Not to mention that ecto drop more often the deeper I go. Drop rates for the beginning are atrocious. However, I am always surprised when I kill the first aataxe and BOOM ecto... hahaha

Numa Pompilius

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: May 2005

At an Insit.. Intis... a house.

Live Forever Or Die Trying [GLHF]

W/Me

29 Feb 2008 at 15:50 - 210

I'll complete UW the day ANet lets me H/H it.

I've test-farmed it a couple of times, but I'm not a farmer, so I never really bothered with UW. Besides, I'm not that fond of the dark & drab areas (FoW, UW, DoA...).

The Way Out

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

In my peanut brain

Zomg Zombies [OMG]

Mo/E

29 Feb 2008 at 18:40 - 211

Quote:

Originally Posted by Numa Pompilius

I'll complete UW the day ANet lets me H/H it.

I've test-farmed it a couple of times, but I'm not a farmer, so I never really bothered with UW. Besides, I'm not that fond of the dark & drab areas (FoW, UW, DoA...).

I agree with you on the dark and drab areas... UW gets depressing quickly for me (designers really captured that well).

I use my secondary account and hero the whole damn thing sometimes. Takes a bit longer, however, it is doable. I just kill flag my second account's heroes away and kill off the other account. When you get the chest at the end, your second account gets rezzed and you get both chests. Not bad... but only works with two accounts and the right kind of builds. You will be going seven man through the whole thing.

beanerman_99

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2005

In the clouds

[Sage]

E/

29 Feb 2008 at 19:41 - 212

Or you could ask a guildmate to go in with you and leave the heroes with you. I have done that before to try out FoW. Had lots of trouble on the battle field with the ether breakers. Heros don't run out of AoE so they get owned pretty quickly if you not on your toes.

loana ventrete

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jul 2007

the great spear weilding luxons [GsWl]

W/Mo

15 Mar 2008 at 05:31 - 213

from what ive looked up on this anet tried to coverup anything about this no bug reports on either wiki nothing on the site nothing nowhere.

kooomar

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Oct 2006

Pow Pow Pow [myau]

Mo/E

15 Mar 2008 at 05:42 - 214

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetdoc

I saw someone spamming an armbrace for 100K + 10 ectos last night in Kamadan.

I find it amusing since a little over a month ago you found people spamming/trading at between 100K + 35 ectos to 100K + 40 ectos.

This really has to be causing havoc in the very high-end trading circles, as one of their main commodities is really taking a nosedive.

Anyone have any ideas as to why the market has cratered? The proliferation of Ursan? The spending of excess cash on sweets/party favors/afking during the Canthan New Year? The decreasing rarity of tormented weapons?

It's been one of the biggest movements in the economy I've seen over the past year...

100k+40? Try 100k+200, I bought my torment shield for 100k+180 back when ectos were 10k each, now torment items are trash sadly...

6am3 Fana71c

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Oct 2006

15 Mar 2008 at 10:52 - 215

Quote:

Originally Posted by kooomar

now torment items are trash sadly...

QQ moar.
Tormented items are still the same today as they were before. Only the price droped for them, so I guess Kamadan scrubs will have to find another item/items to boost their e-peen with.

Holly Herro

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Kangaroo-land.

Blades of the Dingo [AUST]

15 Mar 2008 at 12:45 - 216

Quote:

Originally Posted by 6am3 Fana71c

QQ moar.
Tormented items are still the same today as they were before. Only the price droped for them, so I guess Kamadan scrubs will have to find another item/items to boost their e-peen with.

*Still boosting*?

RiKio

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Dec 2007

Plato's Cave

W/E

15 Mar 2008 at 13:02 - 217

Hey, watch the good part: now Ambraces can be bought easily

makosi

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Mar 2006

"Pre-nerf" is incorrect. It's pre-buff.

Requirement Begins With R [notQ]

Me/

15 Mar 2008 at 13:05 - 218

Quote:

Originally Posted by kooomar

100k+40? Try 100k+200, I bought my torment shield for 100k+180 back when ectos were 10k each, now torment items are trash sadly...

Ectos have never been as high as 10k each since Tormented items were added to the game. Way to brag though.

Fates

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2005

Kanuckistan

Mirror of Reason [SNOW]

R/

15 Mar 2008 at 14:47 - 219

Quote:

Originally Posted by makosi

Ectos have never been as high as 10k each since Tormented items were added to the game. Way to brag though.

Heh, was thinking the same thing.

The Way Out

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

In my peanut brain

Zomg Zombies [OMG]

Mo/E

17 Mar 2008 at 13:01 - 220

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fates Monk

Heh, was thinking the same thing.

lol... maybe he meant onyx... hehe

Eldin

Forge Runner

Join Date: Dec 2005

America. How about you, commie?

Fellows of Mythgar [FOM]

R/Mo

17 Mar 2008 at 19:05 - 221

OH NO! An item that can be gotten easily with noobish Ursan Whoring is now cheaper and can be RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOd more by noobs thanks to their noobish Ursan Whoring?

Geez. You guys started it with your Ursan crap. Well technically ANet, but whatever.

P.S. Why is it DoA is almost dead (American district) everytime I'm there despite Ursan having conquered the world?

The Way Out

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

In my peanut brain

Zomg Zombies [OMG]

Mo/E

17 Mar 2008 at 19:11 - 222

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eldin

OH NO! An item that can be gotten easily with noobish Ursan Whoring is now cheaper and can be RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOd more by noobs thanks to their noobish Ursan Whoring?

Geez. You guys started it with your Ursan crap. Well technically ANet, but whatever.

P.S. Why is it DoA is almost dead (American district) everytime I'm there despite Ursan having conquered the world?

A quick point...

Ecto dropped significantly around the time of the first 55 monk... not because of Ursan... (and I doubt the 55 was even at fault for it).

Because people choose to farm DoA in the European Districts.

I like having cheap ecto... and have not seen a problems with the reduction of cost.

GloryFox

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2006

Good ol' USA, where everyone else wants to be

Now Plays World of Warcraft on Whisperwind

18 Mar 2008 at 00:42 - 223

Armbraces are not cheap enough IMO. After the first Dupe issue they should have changed the trader to only 1 gem set for one tormented item. 15 was the second most absurd thing they could have done 25 was the most absurd thing they did. They guaranteed that if someone could dupe in the game they were going to do it. Greed is a powerful motivator. They should have removed the greed aspect and made the items more accessible.

Now Tormented weapons are not a symbol of skill and ability but a symbol of beating the system.

I also suspect there are accounts with more ECTO's than steel ingot's in the game. With ANET monitoring who has what I suspect people are being more conservative about who and what they spend their money on. Least they drive the price down too far.

Think about it we have had UW and FOW open for long periods of time and yet the price of ECTO has been stable. WHY?

Martin Alvito

Older Than God (1)

Join Date: Aug 2006

Clan Dethryche [dth]

18 Mar 2008 at 01:01 - 224

Quote:

Originally Posted by GloryFox

Think about it we have had UW and FOW open for long periods of time and yet the price of ECTO has been stable. WHY?

1. They have hardly been stable.
2. However, the price of ecto moves within well-defined trading ranges, except when significant exogenous shocks to the system (trader reset, Hard Mode, new campaign) occur.

Why? The market for ecto is highly liquid. Lots of buyers and sellers are available at any given time. Buying a stack at a slightly-less-than-fair price (overpay by 100/unit, or 25k) is virtually instantaneous; the reverse is also true if you sell at 100/unit or so below the bottom of the trading range.

Result: stable expectations and few sell-to-trader and buy-from-trader transactions. If these prices move out of the range, actors correct the situation almost instantly, by selling to trader for more than value (if trader price too high) or buying below value if prices are too low.

This behavior is very similar to that of real-world commodities or securities markets. Further, the disequilibrium behavior (few transactions and massive price shifts) resulting from changes in expectations is also similar. See: mortgage-backed securities market since mid 2007.

Eldin

Forge Runner

Join Date: Dec 2005

America. How about you, commie?

Fellows of Mythgar [FOM]

R/Mo

18 Mar 2008 at 02:54 - 225

Quote:

Originally Posted by GloryFox

Think about it we have had UW and FOW open for long periods of time and yet the price of ECTO has been stable. WHY?

FYI Ectos were 12k+ back when the game first came out.

Kikuta

Banned

Join Date: Jan 2006

Western Australia

[ICE]

18 Mar 2008 at 03:22 - 226

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eldin

FYI Ectos were 12k+ back when the game first came out.

Gone are the days when the price lingered around the 11-13k mark

MsMassacre

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2005

18 Mar 2008 at 03:34 - 227

Armbraces can only be used for one very specific purpose; torment weapons. It was inevitable that their value was going to nosedive once those weapons reached a saturation point within the community, and we're pretty much there. To illustrate my point, lets compare the USES of ectos and armbraces:

Ectos can only be used for FOW armor and ugly stupid chaos gloves, but armor is dyable, and mix-and-matchable and the stats are customizable. Demand remains high, because no matter how common fow armor becomes on some profs (I'm looking at YOU, monks!) people still find a way to make it their own.

Torment weapons can't be dyed, aren't inscribable, and many are either hideous or have major clipping problems. Add to that the fact that anet keeps adding new weapon types which are cooler, more customizable, and often RARER than torment weapons. Sure, you could spend that cash on a torment weapon, but they're getting kinda played out. Wouldn't you rather have a dryad bow? Or an eternal sword? Or a pyroclastic axe? Or whatever the flavor of the month rare weapon is?

You want another example to prove how right I am? Well, okay then; Onyx has been in a steady spiral since GWEN was released for exactly the same reasons. All you can get for them are ugly, non-customizable destroyer weapons. Coincidence? I think not!

BOTTOM LINE;
If you want armbraces to have value again, add a tormented armor suit that requires 1 armbrace per piece. Then you'll see some sustained value in them and sustained player counts in doa.

Fire Childe

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jun 2005

England

Angry Businessmens [aB]

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 03:44 - 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eldin

FYI Ectos were 12k+ back when the game first came out.

Nah they didnt get that expensive until some time after the Rare Materials Trader went live. People camped the trader and noticed Obsidian Shards were tradeable (before this event, Obsidian Shards were not known to drop anywhere). Admittedly I was one of the people refreshing the trader window every second the moment it went live buying up all the Ecto and Shards on the cheap. But they got progressively more expensive as the trader price regularised.

I do remember early on in release that ecto dropped quite regularly in stacks of 4 in the Labyrinth in Underworld. I also remember trading them for 500g a pop which was a bit cheaper than black dye at the time. Then again there was alot less money in the game then compared to now - even still I remember wanting dye my dude's armour black but remember being put off by the price. Black Dye was always comparitively expensive enough to make you think twice about buying it.

Anon-e-mouse

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2006

@ Home

League Of Friends [LOF]

R/Mo

18 Mar 2008 at 04:05 - 229

The other thing that people are forgetting is that Ecto's have another use other than FoW armour.

They're used as currency for 100K+ trades. This is a pretty big reason why people still want Ecto's, and why their price is relatively stable.

Oh and btw, I don't think the armbrace market is in that dire a depression. I saw at least two traders in Spamadan over the weekend asking for more than the OP was saying prices had fallen to.

GloryFox

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2006

Good ol' USA, where everyone else wants to be

Now Plays World of Warcraft on Whisperwind

18 Mar 2008 at 05:13 - 230

Quote:

FYI Ectos were 12k+ back when the game first came out.

Yes I know, that's how I made my first mil when it peaked at 18k. That was around two years ago. Point is this commodity has been farmed to death even more than other commodities and still it stays at 4-5k. It's been that way for quite a while now even though I know quite a few people who have stock piles of the stuff. Anyhow ECTO's are off topic and we can discuss it on another thread. It does irk me that hey nerfed ecto drops unlike the beginning when they dropped like four leaf clovers on St. Patrick's day weekend in the UW and certain other missions.

I still say arm braces should be going down since everyone and his or her duper friend spread the arm braces around. Furthermore only Destroyer weapons really mean anything now and days. It would have been better overall to only require one set for one weapon.

Can't wait until GW2 when everyone starts even.

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

18 Mar 2008 at 05:36 - 231

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse

Oh and btw, I don't think the armbrace market is in that dire a depression. I saw at least two traders in Spamadan over the weekend asking for more than the OP was saying prices had fallen to.

Traders in Spamadan are hardly reliable. Just because they were selling and trying to rip people off didn't mean anybody was buying. 90% of the trade spam is a complete and utter rip off (req 11 long sword, only 100k... right).

Ensign

Just Plain Fluffy

Join Date: Dec 2004

Berkeley, CA

Idiot Savants

18 Mar 2008 at 06:17 - 232

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse

They're used as currency for 100K+ trades. This is a pretty big reason why people still want Ecto's, and why their price is relatively stable.

This is the main reason for stable ecto prices - its value as a trade currency, not for what you can use it for in game.

A thought experiment that helps confirm this: what do you think the ratio, in game, of ectos to shards is? I would hypothesize that it is likely greater than 10:1 at this point. Ectos are power farmed and hoarded; Shards are sold to the trader and bought when people cash in ectos for Fissure Armor.

Before Chaos Gloves existed, I used to speculate what would happen if there were ever a great ecto confidence crisis. The nominal reason they're valuable is that you can use them to craft Fissure Armor, but if it ever came down to it and people went to cash them in en masse they'd find that Shards are by far the scarcer of the two materials.

Mr. Undisclosed

I phail

Join Date: Mar 2007

Phailville

D/

18 Mar 2008 at 08:44 - 233

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

Traders in Spamadan are hardly reliable. Just because they were selling and trying to rip people off didn't mean anybody was buying. 90% of the trade spam is a complete and utter rip off (req 11 long sword, only 100k... right).

The same would go for what the op said about the crash then wouldn't it?

enmitee

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Nov 2007

[Liar]

Rt/R

18 Mar 2008 at 09:27 - 234

Quote:

Originally Posted by MsMassacre

Torment weapons can't be dyed, aren't inscribable, and many are either hideous or have major clipping problems. Add to that the fact that anet keeps adding new weapon types which are cooler, more customizable, and often RARER than torment weapons. Sure, you could spend that cash on a torment weapon, but they're getting kinda played out. Wouldn't you rather have a dryad bow? Or an eternal sword? Or a pyroclastic axe? Or whatever the flavor of the month rare weapon is?

You want another example to prove how right I am? Well, okay then; Onyx has been in a steady spiral since GWEN was released for exactly the same reasons. All you can get for them are ugly, non-customizable destroyer weapons. Coincidence? I think not!

shows how much you know, torment weapons ARE inscribable. And a pyroclastic axe is relatively cheaper if not the same price of an armbrace. the weapons dont have major clipping problems aside from the shield and focus. and imo, i dont like holding NPC weapons that much anymore. and destroyer weapons ARE inscribable as well. they just look like complete crap and monument fodder.

Petition: Make torment weapons dyeable.

Lawrence Chang

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2007

United States

[SOHE]

W/

26 Mar 2008 at 00:40 - 235

Quote:

Originally Posted by enmitee

shows how much you know, torment weapons ARE inscribable. And a pyroclastic axe is relatively cheaper if not the same price of an armbrace. the weapons dont have major clipping problems aside from the shield and focus. and imo, i dont like holding NPC weapons that much anymore. and destroyer weapons ARE inscribable as well. they just look like complete crap and monument fodder.

Petition: Make torment weapons dyeable.

I agree.... why do Tormented items have to be purple? I think this is the main issue why people don't like them. Imagine the Chaos Axe stuck on one color, interest would drop, followed by the price. Boy would i love to wield a blue/green/red glowing Tormented Shield

.

havok019

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2007

HdCr

W/Mo

26 Mar 2008 at 20:35 - 236

Gemsets appear to be relatively stable @ $12-13k a set. It takes 15 sets to make an Armbrace so that should be (high end) $195k. Ectos fluctuate but have recently been trading for around $4.7k. So if we assume the value of an Armbrace is $195k and we regularly trade by spamming "100k + ??? Ectos", it's reasonable to conclude we should be trading near 100k + 20 ectos at the moment. But we are not.

The problem is that we have sellers who are undercutting the market and selling for under 15 ectos, which is where we get buyers offering us 6, 8, 10 ectos. I'll discount slightly, but as long as Gemsets are still ranging in the 12-13k range, I'm not selling an Armbrace below 15 ectos and you shouldn't either.

evolution shadow

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Mar 2007

[KISS] Alliance

Mo/E

26 Mar 2008 at 20:59 - 237

Remove please sorry

Arv X

Academy Page

Join Date: Aug 2007

Running Amok

Mo/

26 Mar 2008 at 21:23 - 238

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrence Chang

I agree.... why do Tormented items have to be purple? I think this is the main issue why people don't like them. Imagine the Chaos Axe stuck on one color, interest would drop, followed by the price. Boy would i love to wield a blue/green/red glowing Tormented Shield

.

because you cant dye the glowing torment of abbadon.... idk it doesnt really fit with margo being purple if tormented weps can change color

DaCatInDaHat

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2007

theoneandonly HiDe Alliance

Mo/

26 Mar 2008 at 21:35 - 239

please go cry in some other forum, planet, universe

-Loki-

Forge Runner

Join Date: Oct 2005

26 Mar 2008 at 23:30 - 240

Quote:

Originally Posted by kooomar

100k+40? Try 100k+200, I bought my torment shield for 100k+180 back when ectos were 10k each, now torment items are trash sadly...

So weapons are only good in this game if they are worth a few hundred ectos? Shit, here I was thinking weapons were good based on stats in this game.