Guild Wars Guru

The crash of the armbrace market...

7 pages • Page 4
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Malice Black
Site Legend
• #61
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
Again, reread my posts. The people who duped are banned. The duped armbraces they traded to people are not.
What Malice is commenting on is how there are a large number of new people in high end trade forums now a days who showed up out of nowhere, clearly possessing duped braces.
Yes. Most of the 1500+armbrace people didn't exsist in High End trading before duping. Hell, nothing went over 7 stacks before duping. Even then the only item that could command 7 stacks was req8 15^50 crystalline.
jon0592
jon0592
Wilds Pathfinder
• #62
1 word:

WOOT
Z
Zahr Dalsk
Grotto Attendant
• #63
If you're trading in quantities of armbraces such that this affects you, you're rich enough that you shouldn't be complaining anyways.

*sits back to let his post go through the flames as all the rich players rise to the bait*
Alex Morningstar
Alex Morningstar
Krytan Explorer
• #64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo Nugget
Good! I'm glad

They shouldn't be that expensive anyway.
QFT.

5678910
Clone
Clone
Krytan Explorer
• #65
I'd agree with Ursan being the cause, but I'll divert from the rest and say this is a good thing. At least people are playing the area now. I remember loads of people saying how much DoA sucked a mere week after it came out. I don't like to buy content that I have to wait an hour to find a group for or go to areas that less than 5% of the population will even bother with. Thumbs up for Ursan.
NoXiFy
NoXiFy
Wilds Pathfinder
• #66
D-D-Duping!

Welcome to one of the worst virtual economys, guildwars! Sadly, half of the dupers that got away with it and have 100's of stacks of them... visit Guru daily (DONT even say this isnt true... Eternal Blade r9 for 6 stacks of ecto+vizu... LOL?, Mini Polar bear with more than 2 trades worth of all armbrace...)

Yea....
trobinson97
trobinson97
Wilds Pathfinder
• #67
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmptySkull
I think it's a combination of things.
  1. Removing the requirement for a gemset for Razah. Which decreases demand by removing a small sink for the gems.
  2. Duping. Increased supply reduce price. Although this was months ago it is coming into play now because of the following.
  3. Urasn+Consumables. Now anyone with GW:EN can come to DoA and complete what use to take 6-8 hours in 2 and a half. Increased supply of gem reduced prices.
    This is leading to the big reason which is
  4. Panic. Now everyone that has been holding on to armbraces as a way to reduce cash for storage is in panic mode. "OMG I have to sell my armbrace now before the price drops too low." As when any market crashes everyone that has them tries to sell them and exceeds demand. Which leads to my next reason.
  5. Demand is lowering. Demand is lowering for 2 reasons:
    • Market Saturation. Anyone can farm their own gems now almost for free. There is a small charge of burning a consummable set, but that is made up for with gems. I did it that way. I'm not gonna pay 100k+xx ectos for something I could do myself. And alot of people are the same way.
    • Alot of people have their torment weapons. And the surge of people in DoA in shrinking. DoA hs been out what 16-18 months now? So everyone that has characters has gotten them there and gotten their torment weapons. And that's all they wanted so they are done. Of course there is a few new characters entering DoA for the first time but the amount is lowering.

Don't forget that a lot of people paid real money for cool looking weapons, i.e. the Mission Pack. That also contributed to the lack of interest in other weapons in general, including tormenteds.
P
Personette
Lion's Arch Merchant
• #68
On the other hand, the way the Ursan groups burn through consumables all the raw materials that go into the consumables are getting more expensive, which benefits the poorer players who get their bread and butter from selling dust, wood planks, iron, and feathers to the trader.
Ekelon
Ekelon
Jungle Guide
• #69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malice Black
Yes. Most of the 1500+armbrace people didn't exsist in High End trading before duping. Hell, nothing went over 7 stacks before duping. Even then the only item that could command 7 stacks was req8 15^50 crystalline.
Er. Most of the 1500+ armbrace people DON'T exist. That pizzaboy guy and ShadeOo guy are both fakes.
EmptySkull
EmptySkull
Lion's Arch Merchant
• #70
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarkin
Words of wisdow above...

Before ursan = DoA ghost city
Afther ursan = Lots newbee, low skilled players, casual players

Why they cant have a bit of fun? why only nolifers and elite players can play DoA? I play doa in the days of TS, great fun, great money...

The great days of DoA are finish, one month before ursan i go to DoA sometimes and this a ghost town...

Now ppls run ursan for some fun and low cash, doa now is a live city...

What happens in DoA now? coffers man, ppls get the gens and trade for coffers... you can buy a coffer by 12k in DoA... someothers trade gens by armbraces and try to sell it, you can buys gens and trade it for arm by just 100k 20e...

The low prices of armbraces dont hurt me... dont hurt 99.9999 of ppls of guild wars dont hurt rich ppls with 10kk in storage (from legal sources ), its hurt only duppers and who trade something with them for armbraces...

"God write right by twisted lines"

Sorry about my weak english.
Hey I don't hate on Ursan. I have made my opinion known in alot of places. I like Ursan in DoA. It's how I finished my 15 set of gems to get my Armbrace to get my torment shield. But this thread is about what is causing a rapid deflation of armbraces. Like it or not Ursanway has dramatically sped up the process of deflation for gems, ergo armbraces. Just a fact of economics. Armbraces would have deflated anyway without Ursanway. It's only made the people who have been holding armbraces,( duped or not and there are thousands of duped ones) panic. Because their once rare item now is not so rare anymore, therefore demand is rapidly falling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trobinson97
Don't forget that a lot of people paid real money for cool looking weapons, i.e. the Mission Pack. That also contributed to the lack of interest in other weapons in general, including tormenteds.
You are right. I forgot about those. That will definitely reduce demand for torment weapons. Yep I would say a factor for sure.
Savio
Savio
Teenager with attitude
• #71
Quote:
Originally Posted by trobinson97
Don't forget that a lot of people paid real money for cool looking weapons, i.e. the Mission Pack. That also contributed to the lack of interest in other weapons in general, including tormenteds.
Not really; common weapons don't affect the demand for rare weapons, and most people who got the BMP weren't going to get Tormented weapons anyway.
Jenn
Jenn
Resigned.
• #72
Ursan has been around longer than this immediate "crisis."
I sold my armbrace a couple weeks ago for 100k+25e. The week before that, I could have easily sold one for 100k+35e. And NOW we're looking at paying less than +20 for an armbrace. 100k+35e was a steady price for a while, do you guys really think that in the course of less than a month, Ursan has destroyed the armbrace market? Or even consumables? (since ursan/consumables seem to go hand-in-hand). If this was the case, I think armbraces would've taken a nosedive quite some time ago.

I feel like there's something else fishy going on.

I just bought about 450 ecto recently, and the person I traded with me kept telling me that they could "just get as many as I need." They'd sign off for about an hour and have 100 more. They could afford to sell them to me for 4.5k a piece.

I don't want to say it's another duping scandal, but something in the market is making me QQ
Racthoh
Racthoh
Did I hear 7 heroes?
• #73
Actually the materials for the EOTN consumables have stayed steady. Highest I saw feathers peek was at 380, but was back down to 300 a day or so later. Dust, Iron, and Bones haven't moved.
A
Arch the
Academy Page
• #74
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
You see, if those 117 bought, say, a crystaline, from somebody for 700 Armbraces (which is possible, there are screen shots of dupers with a whole trading window full of armbraces), then that guy with his 700 armbraces would not have been banned. The money is effectively laundred and still exists within the economy.
You said that the 117 bought a crys for 700 braces.....I hate to break it to you but the 117 most likely only farmed 700 braces as a group.....it still took awhile to get a brace. One of my freinds had farmed a brace a day and we considered that fast.
e
enter_the_zone
Jungle Guide
• #75
Nothing fishy. Many people started doing DoA to get tormented weps on all their chars. That still takes a good long while.

Once that was done, they started selling and supply > demand = price drop.

That ecto trader sounds fishy, I'd send an email to support just to protect yourself.


The materials market is pretty static. All those drops which people leave behind in DoA are a mega source of materials. Have people never heard of a Sup Salvage kit?
Seriously, I sold one guy in a run the mats for his next set when we were done. He got his feathers from the trader and the rest from me. I had enough for about 5 consumable sets from that one run...
Shakti
Shakti
Wilds Pathfinder
• #76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arch the
You said that the 117 bought a crys for 700 braces.....I hate to break it to you but the 117 most likely only farmed 700 braces as a group.....it still took awhile to get a brace. One of my freinds had farmed a brace a day and we considered that fast.
The important word in Hawk's post is IF....IF they bought for SAY 700 braces. It was a hypothetical example.
P
Personette
Lion's Arch Merchant
• #77
Quote:
Originally Posted by Racthoh
Actually the materials for the EOTN consumables have stayed steady. Highest I saw feathers peek was at 380, but was back down to 300 a day or so later. Dust, Iron, and Bones haven't moved.
I recall getting a lot of money for iron the other day...it's true that dust and bones haven't really moved.
HawkofStorms
HawkofStorms
Hall Hero
• #78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arch the
You said that the 117 bought a crys for 700 braces.....I hate to break it to you but the 117 most likely only farmed 700 braces as a group.....it still took awhile to get a brace. One of my freinds had farmed a brace a day and we considered that fast.
Yes I agree and appoligize there for the error of my previous post.
I was confusing teh 117 who were banned for the Mallayx exploit with those who were banned for duping.
Gun Pierson
Gun Pierson
Forge Runner
• #79
Full HM run with consumables and 5 ursan + 3 monks takes a couple of hours and you get 2 +4 +6 +8 gems. The duping scandal had an impact too imo. Also I think a migration is going on from UW to DoA.
GrimEye
GrimEye
Frost Gate Guardian
• #80
In my book, the price of ambrace going down is a good thing. This is not real-world economics, where it affects people jobs or business closing, or people jumping off buildings.

Not good to players specializing in merchantile, yes. Or for people trying to get in the Top 1000 GW Millionaires.

Since the items provided by ambraces are, basically, vanity items - that is, just for appearance and not game breaking - the price drop is really nothing I'm personally concern about.

My take.