The crash of the armbrace market...
arcanemacabre
Woo! Might be able to get me a tormented recurve now!
zwei2stein
I am starting to equip heroes on my main char with tormented weapons.
Go figure.
Go figure.
Spaced Invader
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Originally Posted by EmptySkull
But this thread is about what is causing a rapid deflation of armbraces. Like it or not Ursanway has dramatically sped up the process of deflation for gems, ergo armbraces. Just a fact of economics. Armbraces would have deflated anyway without Ursanway.
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Deflation would mean that armbraces are becoming worth more, not less (as it is the case).
Commander Ryker
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Originally Posted by Songbringer
Err the 117 refers to the ones who were banned for using the "secret outposts" to run peopl through the game and skipping over many sections. Or am I mistaken? I generally avoid reading about people getting banned because I don't care and believe that anet truely only bans people who deserve it.
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EmptySkull
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Originally Posted by Spaced Invader
Actually that's inflation, not deflation.
Deflation would mean that armbraces are becoming worth more, not less (as it is the case). |
Ok let's split some hairs then. With the decrease in money supply, i.e. Loot Scaling plus the decrease in demand for armbraces,i.e. everyone and thier mother can farm the gems now leads to deflation. First of all the overall economy of GW is in deflation. All prices are falling. Rare limited items are still expensive but because of the limited availability is what protects their value. Deflation occurs when
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Originally Posted by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation_(economics)
Effects of deflation
In economic theory deflation is a general reduction in the level of prices, or of the prices of an entire kind of asset or commodity. Deflation should not be confused with temporarily falling prices; instead, it is a sustained fall in general prices. |
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Originally Posted by http://economics.about.com/cs/inflation/a/deflation.htm
Following the logic of that article, deflation can occur because of a combination of four factors:
The supply of money goes down. The supply of other goods goes up. Demand for money goes up. Demand for other goods goes down. |
The supply of other goods goes up. (DoA Gems)
Demand for money goes up. (Panic in the market everyone is trying to liquidate)
Demand for other goods goes down. (Alot of people don't have to buy an armbrace they can get it themselves.)
I would call what is happening to armbraces deflation. one could debate it I suppose like you have. But in the end you get my point. That the prices are falling and that is what this thread is about.
Grasping Darkness
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Originally Posted by I MP I
Ursan and duping.
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stretchs
Duping can and did happen. And unfortunately for everyone that likes to sell things in game it has caused a overflow market of armbraces that are now creating the downward thrust in prices, now that the price shock has hit, the prices will continue to drop until there is market saturation, once there, the prices will finally level out much lower than they are now, and should remain in that position until the next fotm item comes about
Nemesis of God
Consumables
Ursan
Duping
HardMode
Ursan
Duping
HardMode
Messy
Duping, no doubt in my mind.
*Players using UB and running through DOA in 3 hrs is a drop in the bucket. *Players bidding 1750 armbraces for a mini ( and not more 'cause they don't fit in trade window) ARE the problem.
Anet may have banned some players for duping, but there's no doubt MOST of the duped armbraces are still there. These cheaters probably got scared, moved armbraces around and laid low in hopes of being undetected. When the banning was about to come down, some players were selling armbraces dirt cheap, they were in full panic mode. Those that stood quiet.... now still have their stacks of armbraces. I'm sure these are being slowly released into the market, unless you are all cocky and figured bidding 1750 armbraces would not make people wonder.
ANET should:
1- Look into these accounts and see how legitimately they acquired these armbraces. Take appropriate action as needed and stop looking the other way.
2- As somebody suggested, update all old armbraces, if possible Pre-Duping, and make them customized, as well as any weapons acquired with them. Let the cheaters have their heroes carry torment weapons.
*Players using UB and running through DOA in 3 hrs is a drop in the bucket. *Players bidding 1750 armbraces for a mini ( and not more 'cause they don't fit in trade window) ARE the problem.
Anet may have banned some players for duping, but there's no doubt MOST of the duped armbraces are still there. These cheaters probably got scared, moved armbraces around and laid low in hopes of being undetected. When the banning was about to come down, some players were selling armbraces dirt cheap, they were in full panic mode. Those that stood quiet.... now still have their stacks of armbraces. I'm sure these are being slowly released into the market, unless you are all cocky and figured bidding 1750 armbraces would not make people wonder.
ANET should:
1- Look into these accounts and see how legitimately they acquired these armbraces. Take appropriate action as needed and stop looking the other way.
2- As somebody suggested, update all old armbraces, if possible Pre-Duping, and make them customized, as well as any weapons acquired with them. Let the cheaters have their heroes carry torment weapons.
Kyp Jade
Got ursan for the first time on one of my characters (paragon), and did full DoA run last night for the first time. With a bunch of DoA virgins.
I must say i struggled to play ursan, its almost as hard as playing a thumper. Keep nodding off or c-spacing because its simply to hard to pay attention when all you have to do is press 1,2,3 a bunch of times. Towards the end I just set a G15 macro to continually loop those three buttons and follow a buddy so I could get some Mathematical Physics homework done. Had some nice convos on vent. I occasionally had to res someone or look back at the GW all that much.
Ursan ftl
I must say i struggled to play ursan, its almost as hard as playing a thumper. Keep nodding off or c-spacing because its simply to hard to pay attention when all you have to do is press 1,2,3 a bunch of times. Towards the end I just set a G15 macro to continually loop those three buttons and follow a buddy so I could get some Mathematical Physics homework done. Had some nice convos on vent. I occasionally had to res someone or look back at the GW all that much.
Ursan ftl
Croco Clouds
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Originally Posted by Kyp Jade
Got ursan for the first time on one of my characters (paragon), and did full DoA run last night for the first time. With a bunch of DoA virgins.
I must say i struggled to play ursan, its almost as hard as playing a thumper. Keep nodding off or c-spacing because its simply to hard to pay attention when all you have to do is press 1,2,3 a bunch of times. Towards the end I just set a G15 macro to continually loop those three buttons and follow a buddy so I could get some Mathematical Physics homework done. Had some nice convos on vent. I occasionally had to res someone or look back at the GW all that much. Ursan ftl |
Shadowmoon
solution to problem,
make a new item to replace armbrace that is unstackable.
Allow only 2 weeks for people to trade in teh old armbrace for the new item for a 1 to 1 ratio.
This would kill the armbrace prices, which i beleive the majority of armbrace out there are duped.
The mass amount of armbrace out there are from people who traded rare items for a retarded amount of armbraces. There accoutn were banned, but were unbanned claiming that the rarity of the item justified the trade, even though just looking at the market, you can see what was offered were 50 times the price before the time of duping. Because Anet just didn't just revert these trades, we have this situtation we have today, with the high end market's currenty being armbraces.
make a new item to replace armbrace that is unstackable.
Allow only 2 weeks for people to trade in teh old armbrace for the new item for a 1 to 1 ratio.
This would kill the armbrace prices, which i beleive the majority of armbrace out there are duped.
The mass amount of armbrace out there are from people who traded rare items for a retarded amount of armbraces. There accoutn were banned, but were unbanned claiming that the rarity of the item justified the trade, even though just looking at the market, you can see what was offered were 50 times the price before the time of duping. Because Anet just didn't just revert these trades, we have this situtation we have today, with the high end market's currenty being armbraces.
snodaard
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Originally Posted by Shadowmoon
solution to problem,
make a new item to replace armbrace that is unstackable. Allow only 2 weeks for people to trade in teh old armbrace for the new item for a 1 to 1 ratio. This would kill the armbrace prices, which i beleive the majority of armbrace out there are duped. The mass amount of armbrace out there are from people who traded rare items for a retarded amount of armbraces. There accoutn were banned, but were unbanned claiming that the rarity of the item justified the trade, even though just looking at the market, you can see what was offered were 50 times the price before the time of duping. Because Anet just didn't just revert these trades, we have this situtation we have today, with the high end market's currenty being armbraces. |
what if someone buys an armbrace for a friend and goes on holliday, or a pc crash, bye bye armbrace...
|pyro|
after this thread, I haven't seen a lot of Armbraces on sale, maybe its just me
creelie
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Originally Posted by Spaced Invader
Actually that's inflation, not deflation.
Deflation would mean that armbraces are becoming worth more, not less (as it is the case). |
stretchs
There is not a single thing in the game that has been out for any amt of time that the price isnt dropping as time goes on
Pandora's box
Don't we forget the BMP weapons? After upgrading you have a perfect nice skinned weapon for about 20 k. I equip every hero with them, where before I was looking for high end stuff for the most important hero combo's of my main chr.
ShadowsRequiem
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Originally Posted by Grasping Darkness
theres a lot of new skills and consumables that make it possible to rampage almost everything in the game at light speed. duping? i haven't heard that term since d2. you mean ppl hacking gw servers and duplicating items? i doubt it
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Try to search for some threads on the massive amounts of armbraces that were duped. You'll even seen some retard named Chunky Monkey who is in a screenshot with 1750 armbraces.
Sir Pandra Pierva
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Originally Posted by Kyp Jade
Got ursan for the first time on one of my characters (paragon), and did full DoA run last night for the first time. With a bunch of DoA virgins.
I must say i struggled to play ursan, its almost as hard as playing a thumper. Keep nodding off or c-spacing because its simply to hard to pay attention when all you have to do is press 1,2,3 a bunch of times. Towards the end I just set a G15 macro to continually loop those three buttons and follow a buddy so I could get some Mathematical Physics homework done. Had some nice convos on vent. I occasionally had to res someone or look back at the GW all that much. Ursan ftl |
romeus petrus
IMHO the main reason the prices of armbraces dropped is because more ppl are doing DOA these days. Now it is true that the vast majority of ppl are doing it ursan style with consumes.
I agree with whoever suggested a new Elite area with new elite drops/weapons that u cannot go through Ursan style. With armbraces prices dropping from 50 ectos to 35 ectos in just over 3 weeks, I think Tormented weapons have lost their prior status of being the uber leet weapons that everyone dreams about.
I agree with whoever suggested a new Elite area with new elite drops/weapons that u cannot go through Ursan style. With armbraces prices dropping from 50 ectos to 35 ectos in just over 3 weeks, I think Tormented weapons have lost their prior status of being the uber leet weapons that everyone dreams about.
SilentDaze
Thank UB + consumables for the prices of gems/armbraces dropping, it hasn't been "sudden", more people over a period of time have gone out of their way to max out their norn titles, word has spread to what would be considered by many elitists as the "lesser" part of the community, and this is why you will be able to buy armbraces for under 100k soon enough.
Just because Ursanway was publicised ages ago, doesn't mean to say every player in Guild Wars would instantly know about it, the prices have dropped over time due to the sheer amount of people in DoA.
Just because Ursanway was publicised ages ago, doesn't mean to say every player in Guild Wars would instantly know about it, the prices have dropped over time due to the sheer amount of people in DoA.
Dark Paladin X
possibly the price of ambrace would spike to 100k+100 ectos ea if ANet decides: "hey, let's add tormented weapons to HoM."
stretchs
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Originally Posted by Dark Paladin X
possibly the price of ambrace would spike to 100k+100 ectos ea if ANet decides: "hey, let's add tormented weapons to HoM."
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IlikeGW
I think it's mostly ursan that kills them. Dupers generally keep their hoards to try and get the most expensive items, they don't run around town passing their counterfeits where it would look suspicious. (Not that it doesn't look suspicious in high end, but sellers tend to be overwhelmed with greed at the offers and foolishly deal with these people.) Where it hurts is the casual market getting an armbrace, spamming wts, wts, wts... then they keep cutting prices until they sell.
Racthoh
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Originally Posted by romeus petrus
I agree with whoever suggested a new Elite area with new elite drops/weapons that u cannot go through Ursan style.
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Really if they wanted to make a super really hard area just limit the use of Ursan Blessing, Healer's Boon, Spellbreaker, Splinter Weapon, Barrage, Minion Masters, Spiteful Spirit, Protective Spirit, Spirit Bond, and the Fire Magic line. Good luck with a PuG in that.
|pyro|
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Originally Posted by Racthoh
Really if they wanted to make a super really hard area just limit the use of Ursan Blessing, Healer's Boon, Spellbreaker, Splinter Weapon, Barrage, Minion Masters, Spiteful Spirit, Protective Spirit, Spirit Bond, and the Fire Magic line. Good luck with a PuG in that. |
Lady Lozza
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Originally Posted by Racthoh
Ehh that's not really that great an idea. DoA was very poorly designed because of the environmental effects that gimped you unless you built around it (6+ hours of tanknspank zzzzzzzzz). Creating a new area and saying "no ursan" is doing the exact same thing; a lazy way of creating a challenge.
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tank'n'spank - so very true, and made me laugh, thank you.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, if it wasn't ursan, it'd be gimmick build x. And then not only would people be complaining about how gimmick build x makes things easy, there would also be complaining about how only certain professions were required/could be made to fit in gimmick build x.
To be honest I actually have a little fun with ursan every now and then. I'm not much of a melee player, I'm much better with casters, so the opportunity to get up and button mash can be theraputic. Especially if I've just been monking and had people spamming "heal me"...
Racthoh
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Originally Posted by |pyro|
Eliminating 98% of pug setups?
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In City you would glitch the end boss behind a gate, a bug that still exists today. The enemies would become unresponsive and not fight back.
Mallyx had to be glitched in a wall to be killed.
Basically what I was saying is if you want to limit Ursan Blessing you'll have to limit every over commonly used method of clearing a zone. Otherwise there would always be some kind of simple method to achieve 'prestige' with very little effort. However once you do that as DoA taught us you create a zone that no one wants to play in and the only people doing so are so hellbent on getting that rare loot that they'll use the most absurd methods possible to get it. It's slow, it's dull, it's not fun, it's a game, it's supposed to be fun.
When the effects were removed from DoA it became fun. It was hard, but doable with a balanced setup as one would expect for an elite zone. Then PvE skills came along, then consumables and Ursan. Now the only challenge is being the group with the quickest clear time.
Mr. G
prices were never supposed to be so high you NEEDED 100k +40 ectos anyway.....
You can't see me
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Originally Posted by Mr. G
prices were never supposed to be so high you NEEDED 100k +40 ectos anyway.....
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I don't think it's anyones call what prices were supposed to be.
Sha Noran
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Originally Posted by Mr. G
prices were never supposed to be so high you NEEDED 100k +40 ectos anyway.....
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I would just like to emphasize that despite the ease with which anyone here might fingerpoint Ursan as the ultimate #1 reason why PvE is easy/broken currently, I have to say I think you're wrong. Consumables and a few other key PvE skills make your team a completely unstoppable force of broken mechanics, whether you're mighty morphin' yourself into bears or not.
Gaile Gray
One: We have never "not cared" about dupers. Ever. We acted on incident reports and did extensive investigations to remove duped items -- and dupers -- in the armbrace incident some months ago. Did we catch all the dupes? Perhaps not, but we know we removed a lot of them. We will likewise act on reports of this sort of thing as quickly and as thoroughly as we are able. It's important to you; it's important to us.
Two: We can't look at someone's account and say "Hey, he has lots of stuff = He must be a duper = We will ban him immediately!" We did a thorough investigation at the time of the incident and for some time afterward. As I said, we banned a number of people then, and we took a goodly number of armbraces out of the economy at that time. But to go in months later and indict someone because he/she has a nice inventory is like arresting someone because he passes through a city where a crime once took place.
Three: Sensational posts without at least some connection to truth are pointless. Yes, I know, forums thrive on just such threads.
However, saying there is a dupe on Live, in the here-and-now, just doesn't do anyone any good unless it is true. We feel there is not a live dupe right now, but we're more than willing to look into the matter with any assistance whatsoever from the community. Find out details and report them to [email protected] if you think there's duping going on. Please don't wave the "there are lots of XX, therefore there is an active dupe" flag unless you're darned sure it's true!
Four: Sometimes, things drop in price for a perfectly natural reason: because they are more abundant. It's part of that whole "Supply and Demand" theory. As several have pointed out here, with some skills being very powerful, it only makes sense that players are more successful, meaning they're nabbing more prime items.
Two: We can't look at someone's account and say "Hey, he has lots of stuff = He must be a duper = We will ban him immediately!" We did a thorough investigation at the time of the incident and for some time afterward. As I said, we banned a number of people then, and we took a goodly number of armbraces out of the economy at that time. But to go in months later and indict someone because he/she has a nice inventory is like arresting someone because he passes through a city where a crime once took place.
Three: Sensational posts without at least some connection to truth are pointless. Yes, I know, forums thrive on just such threads.
However, saying there is a dupe on Live, in the here-and-now, just doesn't do anyone any good unless it is true. We feel there is not a live dupe right now, but we're more than willing to look into the matter with any assistance whatsoever from the community. Find out details and report them to [email protected] if you think there's duping going on. Please don't wave the "there are lots of XX, therefore there is an active dupe" flag unless you're darned sure it's true!Four: Sometimes, things drop in price for a perfectly natural reason: because they are more abundant. It's part of that whole "Supply and Demand" theory. As several have pointed out here, with some skills being very powerful, it only makes sense that players are more successful, meaning they're nabbing more prime items.
Firebaall
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Originally Posted by Gaile Gray
One: We have never "not cared" about dupers. Ever. We acted on incident reports and did extensive investigations to remove duped items -- and dupers -- in the armbrace incident some months ago. Did we catch all the dupes? Perhaps not, but we know we removed a lot of them. We will likewise act on reports of this sort of thing as quickly and as thoroughly as we are able. It's important to you; it's important to us.
Two: We can't look at someone's account and say "Hey, he has lots of stuff = He must be a duper = We will ban him immediately!" We did a thorough investigation at the time of the incident and for some time afterward. As I said, we banned a number of people then, and we took a goodly number of armbraces out of the economy at that time. But to go in months later and indict someone because he/she has a nice inventory is like arresting someone because he passes through a city where a crime once took place. Three: Sensational posts without at least some connection to truth are pointless. Yes, I know, forums thrive on just such threads. However, saying there is a dupe on Live, in the here-and-now, just doesn't do anyone any good unless it is true. We feel there is not a live dupe right now, but we're more than willing to look into the matter with any assistance whatsoever from the community. Find out details and report them to [email protected] if you think there's duping going on. Please don't wave the "there are lots of XX, therefore there is an active dupe" flag unless you're darned sure it's true!Four: Sometimes, things drop in price for a perfectly natural reason: because they are more abundant. It's part of that whole "Supply and Demand" theory. As several have pointed out here, with some skills being very powerful, it only makes sense that players are more successful, meaning they're nabbing more prime items. |
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10250118
Some IGNs of folks bidding stacks of them. I guess they all were just really good at DOA. lol
Sergeant of Marines
^^ What they said!
It is just hard to believe that these people have stock piled armbraces just by "power trading/farming".
But all in all, it is just a game.
It is just hard to believe that these people have stock piled armbraces just by "power trading/farming".
But all in all, it is just a game.
Jetdoc
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Originally Posted by Gaile Gray
Four: Sometimes, things drop in price for a perfectly natural reason: because they are more abundant. It's part of that whole "Supply and Demand" theory. As several have pointed out here, with some skills being very powerful, it only makes sense that players are more successful, meaning they're nabbing more prime items.
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It's definitely possible (especially due to the "panic" factor), but the significance of the drop in the past few weeks has to cause people to raise their eyebrows...
Gun Pierson
We had our differences miss Gray and I, but I honestly think she tells the truth here and makes sense.
I remember visiting DoA some time ago after the release of EOTN and there was almost nobody around. There was even a topic here about some people complaining DoA was abandonned. Since last month however, the place is heavely populated again.
Sure some people 'may' have gotten away with some things they illegaly obtained somehow. But you need facts before someone gets punished.
I remember visiting DoA some time ago after the release of EOTN and there was almost nobody around. There was even a topic here about some people complaining DoA was abandonned. Since last month however, the place is heavely populated again.
Sure some people 'may' have gotten away with some things they illegaly obtained somehow. But you need facts before someone gets punished.
undeadgun
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Originally Posted by Gun Pierson
you need facts before someone gets punished.
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Loviatar
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and superior absorbs lost over half their 100k cost due to panic liquidation by hoarders on the PLANNED 3X drop rate increase before the bigger supply had a chance to get to market.
a month??? nope only a few days and i loved the whine threads here about it
Day Trooper
Without a doubt - Ursan is the prime culprit why the gemset market is declining so rapidly!
I have to chuckle how so many Ursan-defenders said stuff like 'What do you care! If you don't want to use Ursan - don't use it! It's not like my using Ursan affects your gameplay anyways!"
Well guess what? It sure as heck does! Not only can you not find a group doing DoA that doesn't use Ursan, but now (with the other 'cheat-code': consumables
) it's vastly easier to acquire gems now than in the pre-Ursan days. So naturally the prices are declining 
Mind you this is coming from someone who hasn't even done a full DoA run yet - it just seems wrong that supposed 'elite' areas are becoming childs-play with cheat-code skills like Ursan.
Here's to hoping GW2 doesn't have anything like it!
I have to chuckle how so many Ursan-defenders said stuff like 'What do you care! If you don't want to use Ursan - don't use it! It's not like my using Ursan affects your gameplay anyways!"
Well guess what? It sure as heck does! Not only can you not find a group doing DoA that doesn't use Ursan, but now (with the other 'cheat-code': consumables
) it's vastly easier to acquire gems now than in the pre-Ursan days. So naturally the prices are declining Mind you this is coming from someone who hasn't even done a full DoA run yet - it just seems wrong that supposed 'elite' areas are becoming childs-play with cheat-code skills like Ursan.
Here's to hoping GW2 doesn't have anything like it!
EmptySkull
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Originally Posted by Day Trooper
So naturally the prices are declining
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O an GW2. Speculation abounds about it. Facts known. There will be the Norn race. Skills not known. But skills could be like this overall. Seems to me skils are gonna have whole new elements and uses. I figure they are testing the skill out to see how to better implement it in GW2. But yes ursan definately the reason you see armbrace owners panicking. But panic is the real reason you see drops in prices like this: heres a clip of all the armbrace sellers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8H2FIf1oH4