The crash of the armbrace market... - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

Tarkin

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

W/N

20 Feb 2008 at 00:07 - 41

Quote:

Originally Posted by EmptySkull

Panic. Now everyone that has been holding on to armbraces as a way to reduce cash for storage is in panic mode. "OMG I have to sell my armbrace now before the price drops too low." As when any market crashes everyone that has them tries to sell them and exceeds demand. Which leads to my next reason.
Demand is lowering. Demand is lowering for 2 reasons:
- Market Saturation. Anyone can farm their own gems now almost for free. There is a small charge of burning a consummable set, but that is made up for with gems. I did it that way. I'm not gonna pay 100k+xx ectos for something I could do myself. And alot of people are the same way.
- Alot of people have their torment weapons. And the surge of people in DoA in shrinking. DoA hs been out what 16-18 months now? So everyone that has characters has gotten them there and gotten their torment weapons. And that's all they wanted so they are done. Of course there is a few new characters entering DoA for the first time but the amount is lowering.

Words of wisdow above...

Before ursan = DoA ghost city
Afther ursan = Lots newbee, low skilled players, casual players

Why they cant have a bit of fun? why only nolifers and elite players can play DoA? I play doa in the days of TS, great fun, great money...

The great days of DoA are finish, one month before ursan i go to DoA sometimes and this a ghost town...

Now ppls run ursan for some fun and low cash, doa now is a live city...

What happens in DoA now? coffers man, ppls get the gens and trade for coffers... you can buy a coffer by 12k in DoA... someothers trade gens by armbraces and try to sell it, you can buys gens and trade it for arm by just 100k 20e...

The low prices of armbraces dont hurt me... dont hurt 99.9999 of ppls of guild wars dont hurt rich ppls with 10kk in storage (from legal sources

), its hurt only duppers and who trade something with them for armbraces...

"God write right by twisted lines"

Sorry about my weak english.

kazjun

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2006

HoVa

W/N

20 Feb 2008 at 00:07 - 42

Everyone has them, and you can't even stick them in your HoM.

Shakti

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2006

Home...

Vier Reiter [Vier]

20 Feb 2008 at 00:18 - 43

Didn't we just have this discussion?

Oh yeah....because they were 100k 15ecto http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10256085

oh noes...can we release the lolcats now?

PnoyPlaYa

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jun 2007

Helopolis

I Nemesis I (DuEL)

A/

20 Feb 2008 at 00:22 - 44

For once i felt great about having something that not alot of people had... now that everyone has one the showoffs are gonna start blooming.. "look i have this, i better than you blah blah blah" - damn wammo's haha anyways..
oh well time to look for something new..
think i'll stop playing gw for a while till something changes...

angmar_nite

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Feb 2007

[SNOW] of [YUM]

E/

20 Feb 2008 at 00:23 - 45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tarkin

elite players

Elite mission. Similarities?

Stormlord Alex

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Dec 2005

Beyond the Forest of Doom, past the Cavern of Agony... on Kitten & Puppy Island

Soul of Melandru [sOm]

W/E

20 Feb 2008 at 00:31 - 46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shakti

oh noes...can we release the lolcats now?

3rd time's a charm.
Wait for the 'oh noes! armbrace = 100k and 5e!' thread before Caturday

Just be patient, sweet Shakti

on-topic - duping, ursan, and the natural way of things.

Tachyon

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Stoke, England

The Godless [GOD]

W/

20 Feb 2008 at 00:33 - 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by aapo

- You've never been in Underworld and you joined at November 2005? There's loads of solofarming and dualfarming builds to get ectos with.

Yeah, I've been many times, far too many to remember. I've just never had any ectos drop at all, on any of my characters. To tell the truth it's beginning to piss me off because I want the Obsidian armour for my Necro.

Lady Lozza

Forge Runner

Join Date: Dec 2005

Oz

Angel Sharks

Me/N

20 Feb 2008 at 00:43 - 48

This seems very much like a "the sky is falling" thread.

Sure duping added availability that shouldn't be there, but why oh why whine yet again about Ursan ruining the market. If it wasn't ursan it'd be *insert gimmick build x*.

GW isn't, and has never really been, a gear centric game. Yes it is nice to have rare weapons, but rare doens't MEAN anything, it doesn't give you any advantage. More to the point - tormented weapons are something that can be EARNED, so over time more people will have them. They aren't very rare drops/skins, that are hard to find in a "perfect" condition.

Kamakazi112

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Feb 2008

W/

20 Feb 2008 at 00:45 - 49

Armbraces crash is really due to the act of lowballing... the Armbraces sell for +15-20e now...... dropping 5-10 every week... but the Armbraces are dropping the gems arent dropping.... gems still sell for 13-15k each which is like 195-210k per 15 gemsets, even though the Armbraces are selling less the gemsets still seem to stay the same

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

20 Feb 2008 at 00:48 - 50

Duping ftw

If it wasn't for duping nothing would have ever went over 1750e like in the old days. High End would return to normal, and all the people that now infest it would be gone.

englitdaudelin

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jul 2006

East Coast

Soldier's Union [SU]

N/Me

20 Feb 2008 at 01:06 - 51

I'll go with the grand conspiracy theory of duping, sure, but the ability of anyone to join a DoA group now on his or her favorite character, regardless of elites, skill, or build, probably helps quite a bit. I've done very little DoA, primarily because my ranger lacked the capped skills to do much other than famine farm or try and fail to play the old Obsidian Flesh tank role, and I was too lazy to try to get many other characters through the game just to look at the dark red and dark gray screen for hours...and hours...and hours.
But now, consumeables + ursan builds would let my ranger, rit, whoever, into the game.
And how many thousands of armbraces would it really take to come down in price? If the price is reflective of both rarity and difficulty in earning, well, both of those are coming down too. Seems to me that even a small number of people doing the work might be able to pull the price down.

Sha Noran

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Nov 2005

http://tinyurl.com/2jlusq

Idiot Savants [iQ]

R/

20 Feb 2008 at 01:12 - 52

Free market economics 101, guys. It's all about supply and demand.

In the virtual world, it is a solid fact that supply rises over time, while demand stagnates. In the case of Armbraces, the duping fiasco exponentially increased the speed at which supply was raised beyond the point of worthlessness. However, because it only takes one Armbrace to get the Tormented Weapon you desire, it will take some time for the market to fully catch up with it's imbalance. That is to say, the prices are dropping now because it has taken this long for demand to begin spiraling; you can't sell hundreds of Armbraces a day, it takes time.

To those suggesting it has to do with Ursan, PvE Skills, or Consumables, I would say that if duping had never occurred, these would be the reasons for the recent market plunge. Unfortunately, by the time these methods of acquisition became popular, the market was already flooded... it just takes longer to sell a stack of Armbraces than it does to sell a stack of ecto. =/

Tarkin

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

W/N

20 Feb 2008 at 01:17 - 53

Quote:

Originally Posted by angmar_nite

Elite mission. Similarities?

True, words of wisdow, but my post is about DoA be a ghost town some months before release of Ursan skill, elite players forget DoA...
Why less skilled, casual, mesmers, rit, paragorn the less wanted classes have some fun, some profit? Who cares? I am elite player, stay in any place, kill anything with henchs in normal areas and with TS teams in elite areas... i still doing HM stuff alone and rarely doing elite missions because... i made it lots of times, have lots of money... i refuse to use ursan... and still have fun with my builds...

In the name of revenge against, morgonites, titans and all others bad guys that make me crazy i made a complete ursan run plus mallyx kill 2 3 days ago, with ursan its fun (get a mallyx reaver)... i dont want make it again, its boring...

Elite players only made elite missions to remember the old times, not more for challenge or profit... DoA (before ursan), the deep, urgoz all elite places are ghost towns... ToA these days is a solo place...

Who cares if some casual players can have some fun?

Sorry my weak english.

Bowstring Badass

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2005

Character selection screen figuring what I want to play...

Purple Lingerie - :D

20 Feb 2008 at 01:18 - 54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Pandra Pierva

Ambraces are like diamonds
common but heavly controlled and inflated.
honestly this thread seems like another

OMG MY AMBRACE FARMING IZZZZZ DEAD I CAN'T MAKE UBER CASH FROM SELLING THEM.

plus most tormented items look like shit anyway.

WoW. Hurray Someone who agrees with me... Tormented items do look like shit.

And as far this is a damn QQ thread...

Spaced Invader

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jul 2005

20 Feb 2008 at 01:20 - 55

Another reason (aside from those mentioned already) for the price drop might be that Tormented Weapons (although harder to acquire tha Destroyer Weapons) cannot be placed in the Hall of Monuments.

WinterSnowblind

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Feb 2007

20 Feb 2008 at 01:40 - 56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malice Black

Duping ftw

If it wasn't for duping nothing would have ever went over 1750e like in the old days. High End would return to normal, and all the people that now infest it would be gone.

It's been said, but again, I don't see how that makes sense. The whole duping mess is long since over, it makes no sense why it would affect the prices now.

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

20 Feb 2008 at 01:46 - 57

Quote:

Originally Posted by WinterSnowblind

It's been said, but again, I don't see how that makes sense. The whole duping mess is long since over, it makes no sense why it would affect the prices now.

Again, reread my posts. The people who duped are banned. The duped armbraces they traded to people are not.
What Malice is commenting on is how there are a large number of new people in high end trade forums now a days who showed up out of nowhere, clearly possessing duped braces.

Jensy

Site Contributor

Join Date: Apr 2007

Phoenix, Arizona

Blinkie Ponie Armie [bpa]

N/Mo

20 Feb 2008 at 01:50 - 58

It should just customize the armbraces as soon as they're in your bag, like the BMP books. Can't overcharge, can't undercharge, can't dupe, can't sell them at all. You'd still be able to get the weapons, and then sell those, but it'd be a real kick in the nads to those sitting on stacks of em

*dodges various things thrown at her* >_>

/flee

palladia

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Nov 2007

20 Feb 2008 at 01:52 - 59

It's just how economy works. In a system where items are constantly farmed, faster than there are new players introduced, ALL non-consumable items will eventually go down in prices. And with ANET lowering drop rates, people have less money to spend too...

It's not just Armbraces. Look at the value of green items, practically worthless. Destroyer weapons have come down in prices, onyxes are only worth 3+k now. Polymock pieces and minipets are worth less now...

MsMassacre

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2005

20 Feb 2008 at 01:53 - 60

Let's not forget the possibility that fewer and fewer people every day give a crap about armbraces.

Malice Black

Site Legend

Join Date: Oct 2005

20 Feb 2008 at 01:54 - 61

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

Again, reread my posts. The people who duped are banned. The duped armbraces they traded to people are not.
What Malice is commenting on is how there are a large number of new people in high end trade forums now a days who showed up out of nowhere, clearly possessing duped braces.

Yes. Most of the 1500+armbrace people didn't exsist in High End trading before duping. Hell, nothing went over 7 stacks before duping. Even then the only item that could command 7 stacks was req8 15^50 crystalline.

jon0592

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jan 2006

N/

20 Feb 2008 at 01:58 - 62

1 word:

WOOT

Zahr Dalsk

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Aug 2007

Canada

20 Feb 2008 at 02:03 - 63

If you're trading in quantities of armbraces such that this affects you, you're rich enough that you shouldn't be complaining anyways.

*sits back to let his post go through the flames as all the rich players rise to the bait*

Alex Morningstar

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2006

Team Asshat [Hat] leader - [GR] Alliance

Mo/

20 Feb 2008 at 02:23 - 64

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neo Nugget

Good! I'm glad

They shouldn't be that expensive anyway.

QFT.

5678910

Clone

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jan 2006

20 Feb 2008 at 02:44 - 65

I'd agree with Ursan being the cause, but I'll divert from the rest and say this is a good thing. At least people are playing the area now. I remember loads of people saying how much DoA sucked a mere week after it came out. I don't like to buy content that I have to wait an hour to find a group for or go to areas that less than 5% of the population will even bother with. Thumbs up for Ursan.

NoXiFy

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2007

★☆٭Ńēŵ~ŶờЯК٭☆★

The Benecia Renovatio [RenO]

Mo/Me

20 Feb 2008 at 02:47 - 66

D-D-Duping!

Welcome to one of the worst virtual economys, guildwars! Sadly, half of the dupers that got away with it and have 100's of stacks of them... visit Guru daily (DONT even say this isnt true... Eternal Blade r9 for 6 stacks of ecto+vizu... LOL?, Mini Polar bear with more than 2 trades worth of all armbrace...)

Yea....

trobinson97

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2006

Guildless :(

R/

20 Feb 2008 at 03:00 - 67

Quote:

Originally Posted by EmptySkull

I think it's a combination of things.

Removing the requirement for a gemset for Razah. Which decreases demand by removing a small sink for the gems.
Duping. Increased supply reduce price. Although this was months ago it is coming into play now because of the following.
Urasn+Consumables. Now anyone with GW:EN can come to DoA and complete what use to take 6-8 hours in 2 and a half. Increased supply of gem reduced prices.
This is leading to the big reason which is
Panic. Now everyone that has been holding on to armbraces as a way to reduce cash for storage is in panic mode. "OMG I have to sell my armbrace now before the price drops too low." As when any market crashes everyone that has them tries to sell them and exceeds demand. Which leads to my next reason.
Demand is lowering. Demand is lowering for 2 reasons:
- Market Saturation. Anyone can farm their own gems now almost for free. There is a small charge of burning a consummable set, but that is made up for with gems. I did it that way. I'm not gonna pay 100k+xx ectos for something I could do myself. And alot of people are the same way.
- Alot of people have their torment weapons. And the surge of people in DoA in shrinking. DoA hs been out what 16-18 months now? So everyone that has characters has gotten them there and gotten their torment weapons. And that's all they wanted so they are done. Of course there is a few new characters entering DoA for the first time but the amount is lowering.

Don't forget that a lot of people paid real money for cool looking weapons, i.e. the Mission Pack. That also contributed to the lack of interest in other weapons in general, including tormenteds.

Personette

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2007

20 Feb 2008 at 03:01 - 68

On the other hand, the way the Ursan groups burn through consumables all the raw materials that go into the consumables are getting more expensive, which benefits the poorer players who get their bread and butter from selling dust, wood planks, iron, and feathers to the trader.

Ekelon

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Rebel Rising [rawr]

A/W

20 Feb 2008 at 03:29 - 69

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malice Black

Yes. Most of the 1500+armbrace people didn't exsist in High End trading before duping. Hell, nothing went over 7 stacks before duping. Even then the only item that could command 7 stacks was req8 15^50 crystalline.

Er. Most of the 1500+ armbrace people DON'T exist. That pizzaboy guy and ShadeOo guy are both fakes.

EmptySkull

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2006

KaoS League

E/

20 Feb 2008 at 03:47 - 70

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tarkin

Words of wisdow above...

Before ursan = DoA ghost city
Afther ursan = Lots newbee, low skilled players, casual players

Why they cant have a bit of fun? why only nolifers and elite players can play DoA? I play doa in the days of TS, great fun, great money...

The great days of DoA are finish, one month before ursan i go to DoA sometimes and this a ghost town...

Now ppls run ursan for some fun and low cash, doa now is a live city...

What happens in DoA now? coffers man, ppls get the gens and trade for coffers... you can buy a coffer by 12k in DoA... someothers trade gens by armbraces and try to sell it, you can buys gens and trade it for arm by just 100k 20e...

The low prices of armbraces dont hurt me... dont hurt 99.9999 of ppls of guild wars dont hurt rich ppls with 10kk in storage (from legal sources

), its hurt only duppers and who trade something with them for armbraces...

"God write right by twisted lines"

Sorry about my weak english.

Hey I don't hate on Ursan. I have made my opinion known in alot of places. I like Ursan in DoA. It's how I finished my 15 set of gems to get my Armbrace to get my torment shield. But this thread is about what is causing a rapid deflation of armbraces. Like it or not Ursanway has dramatically sped up the process of deflation for gems, ergo armbraces. Just a fact of economics. Armbraces would have deflated anyway without Ursanway. It's only made the people who have been holding armbraces,( duped or not and there are thousands of duped ones) panic. Because their once rare item now is not so rare anymore, therefore demand is rapidly falling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by trobinson97

Don't forget that a lot of people paid real money for cool looking weapons, i.e. the Mission Pack. That also contributed to the lack of interest in other weapons in general, including tormenteds.

You are right. I forgot about those. That will definitely reduce demand for torment weapons. Yep I would say a factor for sure.

Savio

Teenager with attitude

Join Date: Jul 2005

Fifteen Over Fifty [Rare]

20 Feb 2008 at 03:54 - 71

Quote:

Originally Posted by trobinson97

Don't forget that a lot of people paid real money for cool looking weapons, i.e. the Mission Pack. That also contributed to the lack of interest in other weapons in general, including tormenteds.

Not really; common weapons don't affect the demand for rare weapons, and most people who got the BMP weren't going to get Tormented weapons anyway.

Jenn

Resigned.

Join Date: Sep 2006

20 Feb 2008 at 04:01 - 72

Ursan has been around longer than this immediate "crisis."
I sold my armbrace a couple weeks ago for 100k+25e. The week before that, I could have easily sold one for 100k+35e. And NOW we're looking at paying less than +20 for an armbrace. 100k+35e was a steady price for a while, do you guys really think that in the course of less than a month, Ursan has destroyed the armbrace market? Or even consumables? (since ursan/consumables seem to go hand-in-hand). If this was the case, I think armbraces would've taken a nosedive quite some time ago.

I feel like there's something else fishy going on.

I just bought about 450 ecto recently, and the person I traded with me kept telling me that they could "just get as many as I need." They'd sign off for about an hour and have 100 more. They could afford to sell them to me for 4.5k a piece.

I don't want to say it's another duping scandal, but something in the market is making me QQ

Racthoh

Did I hear 7 heroes?

Join Date: May 2005

Scars Meadows [SMS], Guild Leader (Not Recruiting)

20 Feb 2008 at 04:10 - 73

Actually the materials for the EOTN consumables have stayed steady. Highest I saw feathers peek was at 380, but was back down to 300 a day or so later. Dust, Iron, and Bones haven't moved.

Arch the

Academy Page

Join Date: Jul 2006

Canada

20 Feb 2008 at 04:14 - 74

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

You see, if those 117 bought, say, a crystaline, from somebody for 700 Armbraces (which is possible, there are screen shots of dupers with a whole trading window full of armbraces), then that guy with his 700 armbraces would not have been banned. The money is effectively laundred and still exists within the economy.

You said that the 117 bought a crys for 700 braces.....I hate to break it to you but the 117 most likely only farmed 700 braces as a group.....it still took awhile to get a brace. One of my freinds had farmed a brace a day and we considered that fast.

enter_the_zone

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Nov 2007

R/

20 Feb 2008 at 04:15 - 75

Nothing fishy. Many people started doing DoA to get tormented weps on all their chars. That still takes a good long while.

Once that was done, they started selling and supply > demand = price drop.

That ecto trader sounds fishy, I'd send an email to support just to protect yourself.

The materials market is pretty static. All those drops which people leave behind in DoA are a mega source of materials. Have people never heard of a Sup Salvage kit?
Seriously, I sold one guy in a run the mats for his next set when we were done. He got his feathers from the trader and the rest from me. I had enough for about 5 consumable sets from that one run...

Shakti

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Sep 2006

Home...

Vier Reiter [Vier]

20 Feb 2008 at 04:38 - 76

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arch the

You said that the 117 bought a crys for 700 braces.....I hate to break it to you but the 117 most likely only farmed 700 braces as a group.....it still took awhile to get a brace. One of my freinds had farmed a brace a day and we considered that fast.

The important word in Hawk's post is IF....IF they bought for SAY 700 braces. It was a hypothetical example.

Personette

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2007

20 Feb 2008 at 04:41 - 77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racthoh

Actually the materials for the EOTN consumables have stayed steady. Highest I saw feathers peek was at 380, but was back down to 300 a day or so later. Dust, Iron, and Bones haven't moved.

I recall getting a lot of money for iron the other day...it's true that dust and bones haven't really moved.

HawkofStorms

Hall Hero

Join Date: Aug 2005

E/

20 Feb 2008 at 04:41 - 78

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arch the

You said that the 117 bought a crys for 700 braces.....I hate to break it to you but the 117 most likely only farmed 700 braces as a group.....it still took awhile to get a brace. One of my freinds had farmed a brace a day and we considered that fast.

Yes I agree and appoligize there for the error of my previous post.
I was confusing teh 117 who were banned for the Mallayx exploit with those who were banned for duping.

Gun Pierson

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Belgium

PIMP

Mo/

20 Feb 2008 at 06:32 - 79

Full HM run with consumables and 5 ursan + 3 monks takes a couple of hours and you get 2 +4 +6 +8 gems. The duping scandal had an impact too imo. Also I think a migration is going on from UW to DoA.

GrimEye

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Oct 2007

Rt/

20 Feb 2008 at 07:22 - 80

In my book, the price of ambrace going down is a good thing. This is not real-world economics, where it affects people jobs or business closing, or people jumping off buildings.

Not good to players specializing in merchantile, yes. Or for people trying to get in the Top 1000 GW Millionaires.

Since the items provided by ambraces are, basically, vanity items - that is, just for appearance and not game breaking - the price drop is really nothing I'm personally concern about.

My take.