The crash of the armbrace market...
stretchs
I dont think there will ever be a definitive reason why the market has been crashing, there have been many many posts here as to why, many are quite plausible, others completely nonsense, but in the end, the prices are dropping, the QQ begins from the ones with too many and ends with the people that are able to buy something they at one time couldnt
Kyp Jade
Most of it is from ursan, if you noticed the gem prices have not only dropped considerably, they are averaging out to about 4k/gem
This is due to the easy of doing a full run from start to mallyx in about 2-2.5 hours
This is due to the easy of doing a full run from start to mallyx in about 2-2.5 hours
Jensy
1. Ursan is a selling point. Buy eotn, get a skill that allows you to easily do x, y, z.
2. If nerfing it *only* benefits the yobs who are QQ-ing that they can no longer get 100k+7348343 ecto... yeah, sorry, can't find myself caring.
3. Torment weapons are ugly compared to the free weapons we can get in the BMP. The weapon contest winners (whenever we get them) have the potential to also be much nicer looking. Only reason to get a torment weapon is to increase your e-peen, and that isn't enough for some of us!
4. 155k is still a lot of freaking money for a weapon that does nothing different from one that can go in your HoM and (potentially) give you benefits in GW2.
And people are surprised that the market is crashing...?
2. If nerfing it *only* benefits the yobs who are QQ-ing that they can no longer get 100k+7348343 ecto... yeah, sorry, can't find myself caring.
3. Torment weapons are ugly compared to the free weapons we can get in the BMP. The weapon contest winners (whenever we get them) have the potential to also be much nicer looking. Only reason to get a torment weapon is to increase your e-peen, and that isn't enough for some of us!
4. 155k is still a lot of freaking money for a weapon that does nothing different from one that can go in your HoM and (potentially) give you benefits in GW2.
And people are surprised that the market is crashing...?
Darksun
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Originally Posted by pansy malfoy
2. If nerfing it *only* benefits the yobs who are QQ-ing that they can no longer get 100k+7348343 ecto... yeah, sorry, can't find myself caring.
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MithranArkanere
Each elite are has its time. Once a new campaign coes up, the last elite area becomes easier and its rewards devalue.
Completely normal.
Completely normal.
Red Sonya
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Originally Posted by The Way Out
Actually, I am willing to bet that Ursan blessing's synergy will get nerfed, and you will will be forced to use other skills besides UB. Only a matter of time...
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kradens
why is the armbrace market crashing?
all the people who wanted the armbrace/torment weapons have got them.
the bmp weapons look better, and they are free.
there is no one left to buy the remaining stack of 700 armbraces in ur inventory.
......the poor people say they are sorry they are unable to purchase ur has-been items for mountains of gold.
.......maybe u should have stuck to ectos......or started playing the game instead of finding ways to hold more money in ur storage than the game intended.
all the people who wanted the armbrace/torment weapons have got them.
the bmp weapons look better, and they are free.
there is no one left to buy the remaining stack of 700 armbraces in ur inventory.
......the poor people say they are sorry they are unable to purchase ur has-been items for mountains of gold.
.......maybe u should have stuck to ectos......or started playing the game instead of finding ways to hold more money in ur storage than the game intended.
XiaoTheBlade
I wouldn't mind a tormented weapon, but I'm patient and don't see the point in paying over the top for something which will be almost free in a while. Like when new games come out, I normally wait a while and the price goes down.
Vazze
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Originally Posted by XiaoTheBlade
Like when new games come out, I normally wait a while and the price goes down.
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XiaoTheBlade
Not new gw games, I mean any game. Like Battlefield 2142, CSS, etc.
Gun Pierson
There's another factor that may have had an impact of some sort. The double LB/SP points weekend we recently had. More people have high LB ranks now so DoA got more doable for a lot of peeps, in theory that is.
Iuris
Prices are destined to drop. Since nothing is taking tormented items OUT of the game, and more are getting in, eventually, the prices will go further and further down.
It will always represent the balance point between "effort needed" vs. "reward expected".
Imagine the ecto market: sometime, everyone rich will have all the FoW armors they want. Then what?
1. noone will buy etos at 5k
2. those that have ectos will either have to use them themselves (and they likely already have all the FoW armors they want) OR
3. sell the ectos and lower and lower prices to get thegold they need to buy things they DO want
Same for Armbraces, except they go more slowly...
It will always represent the balance point between "effort needed" vs. "reward expected".
Imagine the ecto market: sometime, everyone rich will have all the FoW armors they want. Then what?
1. noone will buy etos at 5k
2. those that have ectos will either have to use them themselves (and they likely already have all the FoW armors they want) OR
3. sell the ectos and lower and lower prices to get thegold they need to buy things they DO want
Same for Armbraces, except they go more slowly...
HawkofStorms
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Originally Posted by Iuris
Prices are destined to drop. Since nothing is taking tormented items OUT of the game, and more are getting in, eventually, the prices will go further and further down.
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RobTehUnknown
God I regret paying 900k for my armbrace when they first came out...
{IceFire}
^and i regret paying the extra 20-30 dollars for getting EotN early? Lol
Numa Pompilius
Armbraces are 100K + 5e now?
Sweet jesus, I better sell all my stacks before I'm ruined!
Sweet jesus, I better sell all my stacks before I'm ruined!
PnoyPlaYa
i'm going to cry.... XD
The Way Out
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Originally Posted by Red Sonya
...so won't be a nerf to UB...sorry...you lose and phail
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I don't know how often you play this game, however, I have been playing a long time. Anet takes around six months to nerf a PvE skill on average and a couple threads here to nerf a PvP skill. It has been this way for as long as I can remember.
I agree that they will piss a lot of people off, because a lot of people can't play much other than UB. That is the nature of a lazy button mashing Elite. I don't even care if they keep it or get rid of it, however, it degraded the challenge of GW to the point that there are children in the game that can do Elites now. All they do is spam four skills. The ig market is a joke and items are ridiculously easy to get now. It is my opinion that they will dummy UB down eventually, in order to save the challenge of the game (let alone the market, which is outright laudable).
If they don't, I am wrong, but that is fine because it was an opinion. Do me a huge favor, spell "fail" correctly and stop riding the "cool crowd's" jocks here you wannabe nobody neverwasbeen. Only a loser jumps into a thread and starts flinging mud for no reason. You deserve your disappointing life.
Keithark
Are you serious? Market crash? 100k +10 ecto for something you can do in a day? Just about anything else you do in a day (not counting powertrade) will get you about 30-40k max but the braces give you over 2 times that much. I don't think anything wrong with that...just inflation has gone away some.
Pleikki
lol Only good thing about this crash.. I can finnally get torm weaps on all my casters (7 casters) ;D
Ku Ku
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
I saw someone spamming an armbrace for 100K + 10 ectos last night in Kamadan.
I find it amusing since a little over a month ago you found people spamming/trading at between 100K + 35 ectos to 100K + 40 ectos. This really has to be causing havoc in the very high-end trading circles, as one of their main commodities is really taking a nosedive. Anyone have any ideas as to why the market has cratered? The proliferation of Ursan? The spending of excess cash on sweets/party favors/afking during the Canthan New Year? The decreasing rarity of tormented weapons? It's been one of the biggest movements in the economy I've seen over the past year... |
The Way Out
I still hear about duping... which I think is funny. I don't blame anet for it... however, when hackers lock onto a game... they normally stick around for the long haul. The same thing happened with a few other online games. GW had a good run and GW2 is coming out just in time.
Numa Pompilius
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Originally Posted by The Way Out
I still hear about duping... which I think is funny. I don't blame anet for it... however, when hackers lock onto a game... they normally stick around for the long haul
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One guy reported both those bugs in OCTOBER LAST YEAR, together with about a dozen other serious bugs, and what happened? Nothing.
About a month ago he posted about them here at GWGuru, at which point Gaile got upset and claimed it was illegal to report serious bugs in a public forum, GWGuru deleted his posts (which were well-documented and had already been moved to the outstanding bugs section) as well as all posts linking to his reports. And many of the bugs are still not fixed.
Now, support went to hell when NCSoft took over from ANet, and maybe there are no programmers left maintaining GW, but that no action is taken against bugs like these, which basically are as serious as any bug can ever get, unless it becomes common knowledge that the bugs are being abused to hell and back by exploiters, doesn't exactly instill confidence.
The Way Out
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Originally Posted by Numa Pompilius
Not to mention that GW support chose not to fix even incredibly serious bugs like the "crash other players client" or the mallyx citadel bug when they were informed of them.
One guy reported both those bugs in OCTOBER LAST YEAR, together with about a dozen other serious bugs, and what happened? Nothing. About a month ago he posted about them here at GWGuru, at which point Gaile got upset and claimed it was illegal to report serious bugs in a public forum, GWGuru deleted his posts (which were well-documented and had already been moved to the outstanding bugs section) as well as all posts linking to his reports. And many of the bugs are still not fixed. Now, support went to hell when NCSoft took over from ANet, and maybe there are no programmers left maintaining GW, but that no action is taken against bugs like these, which basically are as serious as any bug can ever get, unless it becomes common knowledge that the bugs are being abused to hell and back by exploiters, doesn't exactly instill confidence. |
Numa Pompilius
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Originally Posted by The Way Out
I remember Pablo's posts. Funny thing is, gwg deleted the posts a couple hours afterward, as if they never happened. Funny, huh?
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Loviatar
[QUOTE]
politely i will disagree and give past examples of why.
1. guaranteed salvage/rune trader long ago infuriated farmers/traders (the threads were a great whine)
2. 3X sigil drop rate increase so the common noob (me) could afford a hall (whines aspplenty)
3. 3X increase drop rate on superior absorb/vigor runes when hoarders held them back to keep them at 100k/75k. check prices now
4 inscribles
note ANET has an unbroken 100% track record of opening the game to the main player base (me) at the expence of the tiny elite top farmer/trader who is playing gw tycoon not GW
this is only one more step in giving their main player base more access to the actual game.
the super neet elite are such a small fraction of a single per cent NCsofts bottom line NCsoft doesnt know they exist.
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Originally Posted by The Way Out
I agree that they will piss a lot of people off, because a lot of people can't play much other than UB. That is the nature of a lazy button mashing Elite. I don't even care if they keep it or get rid of it, however, it degraded the challenge of GW to the point that there are children in the game that can do Elites now. All they do is spam four skills. The ig market is a joke and items are ridiculously easy to get now. It is my opinion that they will dummy UB down eventually, in order to save the challenge of the game (let alone the market, which is outright laudable).
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1. guaranteed salvage/rune trader long ago infuriated farmers/traders (the threads were a great whine)
2. 3X sigil drop rate increase so the common noob (me) could afford a hall (whines aspplenty)
3. 3X increase drop rate on superior absorb/vigor runes when hoarders held them back to keep them at 100k/75k. check prices now
4 inscribles
note ANET has an unbroken 100% track record of opening the game to the main player base (me) at the expence of the tiny elite top farmer/trader who is playing gw tycoon not GW
this is only one more step in giving their main player base more access to the actual game.
the super neet elite are such a small fraction of a single per cent NCsofts bottom line NCsoft doesnt know they exist.
pumpkin pie
why the hell would anyone buy an arm brace with 100k+40ecto?
havok019
It's the Ursan teams and the consumables. People are actually playing this area of the game because it's doable now. I think that is a good thing.
I got my first armbrace, and I'm well on my way to my second and this is from largely full runs on Fri and Sat night for the last month.
I got my first armbrace, and I'm well on my way to my second and this is from largely full runs on Fri and Sat night for the last month.
the_jos
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| Are you serious? Market crash? 100k +10 ecto for something you can do in a day? Just about anything else you do in a day (not counting powertrade) will get you about 30-40k max but the braces give you over 2 times that much. I don't think anything wrong with that...just inflation has gone away some. |
I don't know about HM, but NM times are probably still around/above 2hrs, making that 18 hours of play.
18 hours of play and getting 40k max would mean you farm the very impressive amount of less than 2.5k/hour.
Even if you could cut that time to half, 9 hours of play, it would be an impressive 5k/hour.
I think I can even farm those amounts in NM if I want to.
At a rate of 5k/ecto the current price of an armbrace is 150k, which would be around 8.5k/hour. 10k/hour if you need only 5 NM runs.
Either the DoA runs got a lot faster or you might have done something wrong with your math.
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| It's the Ursan teams and the consumables. |
Part of it is ignorance (why would you sell something at an gold/hour rate that's just bad, see example above).
Part of it is fear, people believe the price will drop and stay low (while the gold/hour rate does not seem to support that).
The market turned in a buyers market, very low demand and very high supply.
As long as the frenzy remains, things will get worse. But it's not only UB+cons.
odly
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Originally Posted by the_jos
At a rate of 5k/ecto the current price of an armbrace is 150k,
The market turned in a buyers market, very low demand and very high supply. |
supply >> demand --> lower prices.
Why do they do it then ? Because it's there and because they (finally) can. that's enough reason to do anything in a game.
KennyC
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Originally Posted by the_jos
But it's not only UB+cons.
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With the introduction of Ursan and cons there has been an influx of Ursan players in DOA using cons to farm. I have myself made an absolute fortune selling cons (1.6mil so far) - 8k a set is still the going rate, and I still have 400+ skill points to use!
Before Ursan the amount of people in doa was small, now there are nearly always multiple districts, in fact it's turned into the new "Spamadan" - the thing with DOA is that it went from difficult to very easy overnight and that means more people farming there. Go to Olafstead in EOTN and ask a few people why they are grinding norn points, they will tell you with a lol or two its because the wanna farm DOA. Also you only have to read local chat in DOA to realise its Ursan and Cons. Ursan or Cons are mentioned (in my experience) 90% of all local chat messages.
1. More people farming = more armbraces on the market.
2. More armbraces on the market = it becomes a buyers market instead of a sellers market so prices drop.
3. Prices drop = tormented weapons become less rare, therefore much less desirable and prices drop further.
4. Posts like mine and threads like this one also drive the prices down, although quite why anyone would like a paperclip sword (tormented sword) is beyond me!
azizul1975
could it be becoz of speculative play. i mean, say u want to buy the armbraces cheap, right. one way is to create a market havoc. a way to do it is by spamming "WTS armbrace 100k +10ectos ( or less)" , whereas u dont actually have it. if any person ask for it you can just reply "sorry ,sold". of course if one person doing it people will not realise, but what if 1000 person doing it (now that GW sold 5mil copies), everyday, along with the emergence of ursanway , surely the actual armbraces hoarders do feel the threat, hence selling it as quick as possible before the market fell further.
i dont know, just my thought....
i dont know, just my thought....
stretchs
Actually as Gaile stated they removed alot of them, she didnt guarantee they were all removed in her last post about this subject, so your assertion that Ursan and Consumables are the only reason is off based from the start. As many have said here, there are thousands of those duped items still floating around, the dupers clearly were trading them to people as currency and we have yet to find a case where someone had the armbraces they were traded were removed, they removed the items in the accnts and linked accnts to these dupers and probably very little outside of that. Think about it, you were trading a q9 inscr really amazing drop to a duper who said i will give you 1k armbraces, then whamo, you trade, 2 days later you lose both the item cause of the trade AND the armbraces? I think there would have been a holy hell to be paid in that regard
The Way Out
[QUOTE=Loviatar]
Before you quot me, read my post. I said it would piss a lot of people off... and you then go on to describe things in the past that pissed people off... which I remember very well.
What was your point in disagreeing with me... and then proving that people had been pissed off in the past by things anet had done? Don't disagree with me and then agree with me... sounds hypocritical and inconsistent. On another note, you were probably aiming that line at the guy I was debating. The one that thinks guildwars will fail epically if UB was nerfed.
Quote:
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politely i will disagree and give past examples of why. 1. guaranteed salvage/rune trader long ago infuriated farmers/traders (the threads were a great whine) 2. 3X sigil drop rate increase so the common noob (me) could afford a hall (whines aspplenty) 3. 3X increase drop rate on superior absorb/vigor runes when hoarders held them back to keep them at 100k/75k. check prices now 4 inscribles note ANET has an unbroken 100% track record of opening the game to the main player base (me) at the expence of the tiny elite top farmer/trader who is playing gw tycoon not GW this is only one more step in giving their main player base more access to the actual game. the super neet elite are such a small fraction of a single per cent NCsofts bottom line NCsoft doesnt know they exist.
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What was your point in disagreeing with me... and then proving that people had been pissed off in the past by things anet had done? Don't disagree with me and then agree with me... sounds hypocritical and inconsistent. On another note, you were probably aiming that line at the guy I was debating. The one that thinks guildwars will fail epically if UB was nerfed.
Sun Fired Blank
How did people not see this coming? The values for armbrace and gemsets were unreasonable, and they haven't moved expediently for quite some time. Ursan farmers are oversaturating the market of legitimate DoA items, people are chucking around stacks of armbraces like they're pennies, and the market gave just about every indication it was going to plummet. The legitimacy and true value of DoA-related crap has been nothing but questionable for at least the last month.
I dumped my gemsets like I dumped my ectos around the introduction of hard mode. I don't understand why anyone held onto them or kept farming them. The Armbrace was never meant to be used as currency, and Gemsets were never meant to be used as currency. The very notion that you could use either as currency is laughable, and the idea that high value items would eventually devalue and crash isn't surprising in the least.
I dumped my gemsets like I dumped my ectos around the introduction of hard mode. I don't understand why anyone held onto them or kept farming them. The Armbrace was never meant to be used as currency, and Gemsets were never meant to be used as currency. The very notion that you could use either as currency is laughable, and the idea that high value items would eventually devalue and crash isn't surprising in the least.
The Way Out
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Originally Posted by Sun Fired Blank
How did people not see this coming? The values for armbrace and gemsets were unreasonable, and they haven't moved expediently for quite some time. Ursan farmers are oversaturating the market of legitimate DoA items, people are chucking around stacks of armbraces like they're pennies, and the market gave just about every indication it was going to plummet. The legitimacy and true value of DoA-related crap has been nothing but questionable for at least the last month.
I dumped my gemsets like I dumped my ectos around the introduction of hard mode. I don't understand why anyone held onto them or kept farming them. The Armbrace was never meant to be used as currency, and Gemsets were never meant to be used as currency. The very notion that you could use either as currency is laughable, and the idea that high value items would eventually devalue and crash isn't surprising in the least. |
Loviatar
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QUOTE=The Way Out] Before you quot me, read my post. I said it would piss a lot of people off... and you then go on to describe things in the past that pissed people off... which I remember very well. What was your point in disagreeing with me... and then proving that people had been pissed off in the past by things anet had done? Don't disagree with me and then agree with me... sounds hypocritical and inconsistent. On another note, you were probably aiming that line at the guy I was debating. The one that thinks guildwars will fail epically if UB was nerfed. |
i did read it i should have been more specific my apologies.
i was giving examples where Anet royally pissed off a tiny group to make the vast majority happy.
you stated that Anet would piss off a lot of their player base to make the game harder (increase challenge) and fix the economy for a tiny splinter group
i think they wont piss off the majority to increase the profits of a few
OOshadeOO
basicaly not all the dupers were caught end of
hurdlebeast
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Originally Posted by Day Trooper
Without a doubt - Ursan is the prime culprit why the gemset market is declining so rapidly!
I have to chuckle how so many Ursan-defenders said stuff like 'What do you care! If you don't want to use Ursan - don't use it! It's not like my using Ursan affects your gameplay anyways!" Well guess what? It sure as heck does! Not only can you not find a group doing DoA that doesn't use Ursan, but now (with the other 'cheat-code': consumables  ) it's vastly easier to acquire gems now than in the pre-Ursan days. So naturally the prices are declining  Mind you this is coming from someone who hasn't even done a full DoA run yet - it just seems wrong that supposed 'elite' areas are becoming childs-play with cheat-code skills like Ursan. Here's to hoping GW2 doesn't have anything like it! |
i feel guilty every time i use the sabway build, but i don't farm with it at all or anything like that. just helps me get through the game
Pleikki
i've noticed one thing in this ambrace crash. ambraces were 100k +50e then mallyx was around that little less.. (you get it from coffer where you need gems aswell) and now ambrace is 100k +5e but Mallyx is still at ~100k +30-45e so seems like ppl have bad luck from coffers or they dont get coffers just ambraces .. :f