First Off: Please don't flame. please. If you want to say something, try to keep it constructive.
Secondly: If this thread is in the wrong area, move it, remove it, whatever.
Thirdly: My experience with the topic is at a senior in high school level, but I'm just trying to help, try to appreciate it?
OK!
As many people know, you take economics in high school. I am currently enrolled, and I was thinking of the Glob of Ectoplasm's failing market from a purely economic stand point.
THE LAW OF SUPPLY states: As supply goes up, price goes down.
My thoughts on why (and this seems so obvious typed out) the ecto prices are failing is based so far on 2 important things.
1. Eye of the North's Release gave us a new item, chaos gloves!
People want this new shiny item, requires 75 ectos, the demand for ectoplasm has risen! And henceforth because of the demand boost, the supply of ecto's has also risen.
2. The SS/LB weekend event, gave a huge boost to the favor of the world. An estimated total of 60-80k minutes, with the ability to farm ectos when you want however many times you want, there are now lots of ectos in the market. And instead of a surplus being built, the want for FoW armor and Chaos Gloves meets the supply of ectoplasm. The unlimited wants of the consumer has almost been caught up to, so therefore prices go down.
Those are just some of the reasons i thought of off the top of my head, maybe we can get some other opinions on why the ecto (and general) economy of Guild Wars is in the recession that it is. Hopefully we can get a real economist to evaluate the situation!
So please, share your thoughts, and have a good day!
The Ecto Issue: My thoughts (Economics involved)
Sorn Xarann
Koudelka
Today ectos were priced at 4.8k. The reason for such devaluation is, imo, because of the increasing availability of quick and easy ursan uw runs. As surely, high availability = low price. As more and more people get their hands on ectos and sell them, the overall price will go down. It's not just demand, remember supply.
dies like fish
Ectonomics...
stretchs
This is standard supply/demand economics which has been rehashed for every single item including ecto's ad nauseum
Let us not get back into the same convo that has been rehashed more times than Ursan has been bashed
And Ursan has NOTHING to do with the current price of ectos, take that crap and QQ somewhere else, the price of ectos has been around this price for almost a year. Anytime an item in the games has been around for the amt of time it has it devalues, please do not start this as a QQ ursan thread good gracious
Let us not get back into the same convo that has been rehashed more times than Ursan has been bashed
And Ursan has NOTHING to do with the current price of ectos, take that crap and QQ somewhere else, the price of ectos has been around this price for almost a year. Anytime an item in the games has been around for the amt of time it has it devalues, please do not start this as a QQ ursan thread good gracious
Jetdoc
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Originally Posted by Sorn Xarann
THE LAW OF DEMAND states: As demand goes up, price goes down.
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TaCktiX
Technically if supply goes up and demand goes up in equal proportion, the price shouldn't change at all.
Alex the Great
price of ectos goes down, it's good for the consumer who makes money other ways, but it's bad for those who make money in that certain comodity.
just like when oil goes up Arabia is happy and America is sad, but it is reversed when it goes down.
so if things are like the 70's, all the farmers need to do is stockpile ectos, hold them for a while, and then release them slowly to the traders for maximum profit!!!
just like when oil goes up Arabia is happy and America is sad, but it is reversed when it goes down.
so if things are like the 70's, all the farmers need to do is stockpile ectos, hold them for a while, and then release them slowly to the traders for maximum profit!!!
nvmu
Another thing is that the normal price sold/bought is inbetween the buy/sell price from rare material traders, so if that goes up so will the cost of ectos
and to your demand law there is also 1 for supply which is
As supply increases price increases
And seeing that the price of ectos has stayed around 4.5k-5k for a while now it would seem that the supply and demand for ectos are at the equilibrium point (supply=demand, seems true to me,and makes some sense)
(p.s. also in high school, so don't take this too literal)
and to your demand law there is also 1 for supply which is
As supply increases price increases
And seeing that the price of ectos has stayed around 4.5k-5k for a while now it would seem that the supply and demand for ectos are at the equilibrium point (supply=demand, seems true to me,and makes some sense)
(p.s. also in high school, so don't take this too literal)
Sorn Xarann
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
You've got it absolutely backwards. As SUPPLY goes up, prices go down. As DEMAND goes up, prices go up.
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Oh wow, i have to edit that. your absolutely right.
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Originally Posted by nvmu
Another thing is that the normal price sold/bought is inbetween the buy/sell price from rare material traders, so if that goes up so will the cost of ectos
and to your demand law there is also 1 for supply which is As supply increases price increases And seeing that the price of ectos has stayed around 4.5k-5k for a while now it would seem that the supply and demand for ectos are at the equilibrium point (supply=demand, seems true to me,and makes some sense) (p.s. also in high school, so don't take this too literal) |
GO HIGH SCHOOL
Grunntar
I find it a bit curious that so many people are always out to "fix" the ecto market... Human nature, I suppose.
I'm not a high-end trader, so I don't have stacks of them, but that's why I don't see the market as "broken" in any way. From my vantage point, it is what it is. If prices are low, it's a good time to buy. Since I don't horde them, I usually don't have any to sell, but that would be the time.
If you'd really like to extend your economics analogy, though, I guess the issue is that the government keeps printing money, but very little money is taken out of circulation. Until that situation is fixed, you will always be in a declining market. At best, you can only hope for a neutral market, but even that's short term.
Everything in this game is that way though. More and more "stuff" gets generated, and nothing ever leaves the system. So like ecto, prices on everything will always go down (in the long term). Just a fact of life...
I'm not a high-end trader, so I don't have stacks of them, but that's why I don't see the market as "broken" in any way. From my vantage point, it is what it is. If prices are low, it's a good time to buy. Since I don't horde them, I usually don't have any to sell, but that would be the time.
If you'd really like to extend your economics analogy, though, I guess the issue is that the government keeps printing money, but very little money is taken out of circulation. Until that situation is fixed, you will always be in a declining market. At best, you can only hope for a neutral market, but even that's short term.
Everything in this game is that way though. More and more "stuff" gets generated, and nothing ever leaves the system. So like ecto, prices on everything will always go down (in the long term). Just a fact of life...
MMSDome
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Originally Posted by Alex the Great
price of ectos goes down, it's good for the consumer who makes money other ways, but it's bad for those who make money in that certain comodity.
just like when oil goes up Arabia is happy and America is sad, but it is reversed when it goes down. so if things are like the 70's, all the farmers need to do is stockpile ectos, hold them for a while, and then release them slowly to the traders for maximum profit!!! |
Ecto prices haven't moved much at all for at least a year now even before the big fow upage in minutes due to the SS/LB titles. Think it is just because when Ecto was high in price (6k+) it was because everyone wanted their fow armor early on in the game and yes people still do want fow armor but just not as many before. There is your demand. The supply is still rolling in which makes me kind of wonder that if we keep getting more and more supply but have a lower demand for the armor then why doesnt price go down further then 4.5k or 5k?
Always been curious if A-Net has a line where they dont let certain materials go below a certain price because I think that ecto and shards should be a little bit lower by now.
nvmu
As supply increase price increases
As demand increases price decreases
trying to find a graph of this, but the ones on wikipedia are links so i can't upload it here because it won't let me copy the link to that graph
As demand increases price decreases
trying to find a graph of this, but the ones on wikipedia are links so i can't upload it here because it won't let me copy the link to that graph
Jetdoc
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Originally Posted by nvmu
no...
As supply increase price increases As demand increases price decreases |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand
:bangsheadondesk:
The laws of supply and demand state that the equilibrium market price and quantity of a commodity is at the intersection of consumer demand and producer supply. If the price for a good is below equilibrium, consumers demand more of the good than producers are prepared to supply. This defines a shortage of the good. A shortage results in the price being bid up. Producers will increase the price until it reaches equilibrium. If the price for a good is above equilibrium, there is a surplus of the good. Producers are motivated to eliminate the surplus by lowering the price. The price falls until it reaches equilibrium.
EroChrono
The ecto price has been pretty stable for months and months on end now, regardless of new campaign's, skills and featured being added to the game.
If you ask me ANet is keeping the price around ~5k artificially :3
If you ask me ANet is keeping the price around ~5k artificially :3
Sorn Xarann
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
You are absolutely, positively mistaken.
If the price for a good is above equilibrium, there is a surplus of the good. Producers are motivated to eliminate the surplus by lowering the price. The price falls until it reaches equilibrium. |
This sounds to me that the falling prices are a result of a surplus in the ecto market, but that doesn't make sense, unless it has hit equilibrium.
Am confused.
nvmu
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
You are absolutely, positively mistaken.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand :bangsheadondesk: The laws of supply and demand state that the equilibrium market price and quantity of a commodity is at the intersection of consumer demand and producer supply. If the price for a good is below equilibrium, consumers demand more of the good than producers are prepared to supply. This defines a shortage of the good. A shortage results in the price being bid up. Producers will increase the price until it reaches equilibrium. If the price for a good is above equilibrium, there is a surplus of the good. Producers are motivated to eliminate the surplus by lowering the price. The price falls until it reaches equilibrium. |
you say i am mistaken, let me teach you how to read a graph, the Blue line is the supply, to the right is increasing, as the Blue line moves right price increases
the RED line is demand, as the demand increases(moves right) what does the y point(price) do, it decreases
Racthoh
I think it's interesting that the ectos cost about as much as they used to when the rare material trader was first introduced.
slowerpoke
when a new campaign was released, new professions that have fow sets did increase demand for ectos, leading to price rises.
there wont be any price spikes without increaed demand. so, over time the price will lower.
there wont be any price spikes without increaed demand. so, over time the price will lower.
Shiney
Okay, so now that we are all agreed that the price of ectos is at a low... now what?
nvmu
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Originally Posted by slowerpoke
when a new campaign was released, new professions that have fow sets did increase demand for ectos, leading to price rises.
there wont be any price spikes without increaed demand. so, over time the price will lower. |
and you are mistaken
when factions first came out ectos decreased to around 8-10k, when nf came out ectos droped to about what they are now
hence demand increases price decreases
quickmonty
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Originally Posted by nvmu
As supply increase price increases
As demand increases price decreases trying to find a graph of this, but the ones on wikipedia are links so i can't upload it here because it won't let me copy the link to that graph |
As prices increase, supply is increased (to increase profits)
As prices decrease, supply is decreased
The way you have it isn't logical.
nvmu
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Originally Posted by Shiney
Okay, so now that we are all agreed that the price of ectos is at a low... now what?
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Jetdoc
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Originally Posted by nvmu
you say i am mistaken, let me teach you how to read a graph, the Blue line is the supply, to the right is increasing, as the Blue line moves right price increases
the RED line is demand, as the demand increases(moves right) what does the y point(price) do, it decreases |
It is NOT saying that as demand increases, the price decreases, which is what you put.
RiceCream
oooh...i have an idea..how about revert favor of the gods to be depended on Hall of Heroes, cause nearly infinite minutes of favor (as it essentially is) allows for nearly infinite ecto farming.
imo favor of the gods being based on HoH control was the only thing that tied pve and pvp together.
imo favor of the gods being based on HoH control was the only thing that tied pve and pvp together.
nvmu
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Originally Posted by quickmonty
According to the text and the chart:
As prices increase, supply is increased (to increase profits) As prices decrease, supply is decreased The way you have it isn't logical. |
graphs are read x,y not y,x so it would be as supply increases price increases, as demand increases price decreases ( i am also in ap physics, we do alot with graphs and proportions, the way you are syaing it x=price and y= supply/demand, which makes no logical sense seeing that supply/demand determines price and not the other way around)
Stolen Souls
More supply and less demand = lower prices.
More demand and less supply = higher prices.
Need an example? Look at the CoF greens.
More demand and less supply = higher prices.
Need an example? Look at the CoF greens.
Lionhe4rt
Quote:
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Originally Posted by nvmu
you say i am mistaken, let me teach you how to read a graph, the Blue line is the supply, to the right is increasing, as the Blue line moves right price increases
the RED line is demand, as the demand increases(moves right) what does the y point(price) do, it decreases |
You do realise that you're not making any sense at all, right? Just think of it; why would the price of a product go down if more people want to buy it?
x'''D
Just look at the description of the graphic;
Quote:
| The graph depicts an increase in demand from D1 to D2, along with a consequent increase in price and quantity Q sold of the product. |
nvmu
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
No, the graph is showing that if demand is higher than supply, the suppliers will INCREASE their price such that it will bring the price back into equilibrium - that is, the price will increase until demand again matches supply.
It is NOT saying that as demand increases, the price decreases, which is what you put. |
the red and blue lines are not related to each other, they just show where the equilibrium point is
Dallcingi
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Originally Posted by EroChrono
The ecto price has been pretty stable for months and months on end now, regardless of new campaign's, skills and featured being added to the game.
If you ask me ANet is keeping the price around ~5k artificially :3 |
nvmu
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Originally Posted by Lionhe4rt
You do realise that you're not making any sense at all, right? Just think of it; why would the price of a product go down if more people want to buy it?
x'''D Just look at the description of the graphic; |
MelechRic
Quote:
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Originally Posted by nvmu
you say i am mistaken, let me teach you how to read a graph, the Blue line is the supply, to the right is increasing, as the Blue line moves right price increases
the RED line is demand, as the demand increases(moves right) what does the y point(price) do, it decreases |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand#...et_equilibrium
The curves shift. It's moronic to neglect that.
The other thing to remember, Guild Wars != Real World.
quickmonty
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Originally Posted by MMSDome
Anyways, does anyone else think it is possible that A-Net sets a limit to how low the price of certain materials can actually go?
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nvmu
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Originally Posted by MelechRic
You need to RTFA, specifically this part:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand#...et_equilibrium The curves shift. It's moronic to neglect that. It's also moronic to ignore the reality of economics in your every day life. Why do you think that liter or gallon of gasoline is more expensive now than it was 10 years ago? Maybe the one billion Chinese and one billion Indians that are beginning to use much more oil/gas is to blame while the overall supply of oil in the world remains fixed or is diminishing. Ever hear of the term "Peak Oil?" |
lol..
do you know anything about supply and demand,
they are putting out more oil than ever, and what are prices doing INCREASEING, hence as supply increases price increases,
ALSO that works on elastic products, OIL IS AN INELASTIC PRODUCT people will buy no mater what the price is, which is why they can raise the prices so high
nvmu
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Originally Posted by Lionhe4rt
In GW, maybe.
But in RL, if there is more demand -> results in more supply (usually, on some market forms de supply is kept low to keep the prices high, think about the oil market for example). |
Stolen Souls
How about...we talk about ectos, instead of oil. And GW...instead of the global market? 
Guild Wars:
Demand > Supply = High Price (Crystalline Sword, Emerald Edge (for now))
Demand < Supply = Low Price (CoF Greens)
It isn't really that hard to grasp :/
The way I see it, right now ectos: Supply more or less = demand, with supply very slowly increasing, and/or demand very slowly decreasing.
Guild Wars:
Demand > Supply = High Price (Crystalline Sword, Emerald Edge (for now))
Demand < Supply = Low Price (CoF Greens)
It isn't really that hard to grasp :/
The way I see it, right now ectos: Supply more or less = demand, with supply very slowly increasing, and/or demand very slowly decreasing.
Jetdoc
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Originally Posted by nvmu
lol once again showing your lack of knowledge, the d1 is 1 demand line, d2 is another demand line based on a major change such as if there is a sudden change in a population, or better example yet, if there is a hurrican supply for generates would greatly increase which would be d2
the red and blue lines are not related to each other, they just show where the equilibrium point is |
What do you make of the caption underneath the graph...
The graph depicts an increase in demand from D1 to D2, along with a consequent increase in price and quantity Q sold of the product.
MMSDome
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Originally Posted by nvmu
lol..
do you know anything about supply and demand, they are putting out more oil than ever, and what are prices doing INCREASEING, hence as supply increases price increases, ALSO that works on elastic products, OIL IS AN INELASTIC PRODUCT people will buy no mater what the price is, which is why they can raise the prices so high |
When they choke the supply and price goes up it kind of makes you wonder.
Also if Crystalline swords were common drops are you saying that the price would go up further because according to what you are saying is that since there is little supply of crystalline swords they should be really cheap. Guess that makes PERFECT SENSE!
quickmonty
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Originally Posted by nvmu
do you know anything about supply and demand ...... as supply increases price increases
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Swamp Fox
(not to sound smart@$$) but i have taken a college level economics class(in college) and if you have more of something(supply) than the amount the people want(demand) then prices will decrease, and i believe the problem is just because we(GW pvers as a whole) farm uw for ectos way too much, my solution would be to limit the amount of times you can enter UW a day
this is only my view and i hope that it never happens, and sorry if someone else already said this
this is only my view and i hope that it never happens, and sorry if someone else already said this
Faction Gambler
This thread fails.
Guild Wars economy CANNOT be measured using real world economic models.
No offense or flame intended but O/P need to go back to the drawing board in regards to supply and demand.
About oil, yes prices is alot higher than 20 years ago but input inflation into play and people will see that its still cheaper today for a product with finite life imo.
Guild Wars economy CANNOT be measured using real world economic models.
No offense or flame intended but O/P need to go back to the drawing board in regards to supply and demand.
About oil, yes prices is alot higher than 20 years ago but input inflation into play and people will see that its still cheaper today for a product with finite life imo.