Xunlai Tournament Vote Aid - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

21 Nov 2008 at 10:38 - 1

Hello,

I made small utility that checks how guilds/hvhers have done in tournament in past, projects their expected performance and votes in xunlai house for you.

Get it at:

http://gw.zweistein.cz/RewardPointsPredictor_0.32.zip

How to make some use of it:

1) You need to have java installed and working.
2) Unzip somewhere
3) edit files:
* users.cfg (your username and password for xth which is same as your guildwars username and password)
* 1v1.cfg (names of players you vote for in 1v1, empty file if you want automated votes)
* gvg.cfg (names of guilds you vote for in GvG, empty file if you want automated votes)
4) run "predictor.cmd"

Troubleshooting:

It ran ok, but there are no votes in XTH - XTH is probably closed and will not accept votes even if application can send votes to server. You are either trying vote too early or too late.

FAQ:

Is it safe? - Well, you have to trust third party utility with your username and password, Arena Net does not recomend it and neither do I. You simply have to trust me.
So, is it really safe? - Part of package you download is source code which you can examine yourself or you can have your friends take a look at it or just trust other forum folks who already looked. It should be easy to spot something nasty. And equaly easy to use source as inspiration to write your own version that is safe
I am scared! - I have reputation at stake. There is no point anyway because I would be very easy and obvious target for anets ban hammer.

Is it legal? - Yes. Duh. Law does not come in equation here at all.
Is it okay according to EULA or Anet? - Seems so. EULA does not cover Xunlai house interaction. I should note that they can identify users of this tool rather easily.
Is anet ok with this? - They have not asked for removal of this tool, so probably yes.

How do predictions work? - Prediction are based on past scores of guilds that were in top 16 of tournament. Those scores are averaged, with most recent scores having more weight (so called floating average). Its very simple, but effective method.
What about ladder? - Ladder is not supported (yet), it might be added later after there is some concesus on how much ladder position translates to winning MATs, nor are other factors (like number of QP, Smurfiness of guild, etc.).
It says something different than those prediction threads! - Of course it does, noone have written AI that can comprehend and follow guild-drama, smurfs, reforms, how much has X drunken last night and who smokes pot while monking.

This commandile stuff is clumsy, what about GUI. - Gui is planned, but lo, low, low priority for me.

Jongal

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2008

21 Nov 2008 at 16:55 - 2

I checked the source code and built it successfully on my own. Downloaded all the libraries again ( better safe than sorry

). Used httpcore-4.0-beta3.jar instead of httpcore-4.0-beta2.jar though.
That said if the binaries contain whats in the source, you are safe to use it guys ( If you trust a 20 something posts guy on guru

). At least concerning your email/pw. I didn't verify that the prediction makes sense (yet).

I could not successfully run it yet. Can't connect to http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...esultselim.php . But it is possible that that is because I'm on my companies network (it works in the browser though). I'll give you an update when I'm at home. Which will be pretty soon because it's Friday

Felixious

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Mar 2008

Sweden

W/

21 Nov 2008 at 17:31 - 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jongal

( If you trust a 20 something posts guy on guru

).

Join Date
06-12-2006
Total Posts
2,338

It does sound very intriguing, and if its a green light, i'll check it out.

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

21 Nov 2008 at 18:05 - 4

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jongal

I could not successfully run it yet. Can't connect to http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...esultselim.php . But it is possible that that is because I'm on my companies network (it works in the browser though). I'll give you an update when I'm at home. Which will be pretty soon because it's Friday

Chances are, you are behind firewall and you must use your company proxy server to connect to internet - browser has proxy configured so you can surf net just fine, but this tool does not know about proxy or firewall.

Absinth187

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Sep 2005

32??45′26.49″N, 97??19′59.45″W

Some Like It Hot [sake]

21 Nov 2008 at 19:19 - 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felixious

Join Date
06-12-2006
Total Posts
2,338

He was talking about himself.

Jongal

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2008

21 Nov 2008 at 22:13 - 6

You were right about our companies proxy.
I love the idea of this tool.
Now that I tried it: For me it only makes the GvG predictions ( in the Tournament House, I can see both predictions on the console ).

Are you going to make a GUI for it? It could become a really cool tool.

Why are you calculating the average like this:
predictedOrder = (predictedOrder + order)/2; ?
This does not create the arithmetic mean, does it?

The problem with creating an average from the last tournaments, is that a lot of guilds start smurf guilds and so on ( Dangerous pumkins is rated high in the prediction threads, but was only in one tournament yet). Don't have a real good idea to consider this though. Maybe also look at the guild ladder or give more weight to the last tournaments.

Still the tool will make a way better prediction than logging in and move some random guilds into the boxes - like I did up to last month

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

22 Nov 2008 at 17:37 - 7

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jongal

Why are you calculating the average like this:
predictedOrder = (predictedOrder + order)/2; ?
This does not create the arithmetic mean, does it?

Nope, its weighted moving average. Latest result has full weight, result before has half weight, resulte before that has quater weight, etc ...

Massive Impulsa

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Mar 2007

In Viking land! (Norwaii)

Beyond the Gates of Infinity [sKy]

R/Mo

22 Nov 2008 at 18:45 - 8

So all in all, this program makes Predictions for u?

BEcause it calculates the one whit most AT points, last mAT, Smurfs play, gvg wins/loss etc?

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

22 Nov 2008 at 23:38 - 9

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felixious

Join Date
06-12-2006
Total Posts
2,338

It does sound very intriguing, and if its a green light, i'll check it out.

zwei2stein is well-known here, a very good contributor to Guru with extensive technical knowledge. I'd run his tool without much questions

.

zwei2stein, you need to reassure everyone on the use of the email/password before you get a general scare (not everyone looks at src and compiles code

). I guess your prediction method is as good as everyone's here, but I'll try to see whether it matches the corresponding threads anyway.

Nice job

joshuarodger

Unbanned

Join Date: Jan 2008

Trinity of the Ascended [ToA] -- IGN: Swirly

Mo/

23 Nov 2008 at 00:32 - 10

gg Z

12 characters

Lyssa Apate

Academy Page

Join Date: Jan 2008

The Netherlands

Eevee Breeders United [cute]

Me/

23 Nov 2008 at 01:29 - 11

If you steal my account, I'll finally be rid of this game.

At least it makes more educated guesses than I do. We'll see in a few weeks.

Mystica

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jun 2005

Germany

[金金金金]

Me/W

23 Nov 2008 at 17:18 - 12

Gone through some of his posts + memories of previous posts = I'll run it without fear

Nice idea, especially for people like me that don'T bother checking threads and like but just drag random names to the spots ^^

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

23 Nov 2008 at 21:16 - 13

(Thanks for feedback, Frill and everyone)

Updated OP a bit.

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

23 Nov 2008 at 22:06 - 14

Hey zwei, you might want to add a version number if you're going to update it.

I didn't know that there were monks smoking pot ;P

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

25 Nov 2008 at 01:55 - 15

Nifty little tool here zwei2stein, thanks!

One quick Q though, it seems that it's not saving the HvH predictions. Is this a common thing or am I maybe doing something wrong on my end?

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

25 Nov 2008 at 08:38 - 16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightow

One quick Q though, it seems that it's not saving the HvH predictions. Is this a common thing or am I maybe doing something wrong on my end?

I have had it happen rarely. Can you send me output of application? I should help me to see what happened.

Also, try to vote for HvH manually and see if my program "catches on" and overwrites your 1v1 votes, that seems to help for some mysterious reason.

esthetic

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Apr 2008

Fantasy Island

[Qtie]

R/Mo

25 Nov 2008 at 11:08 - 17

Can you update the results? Additional participants in the GvG and HvH have qualified Nov. tourney since your first post. I am not downloading until i see it work first.

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

25 Nov 2008 at 14:32 - 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

I have had it happen rarely. Can you send me output of application? I should help me to see what happened.

Sure, I uploaded the output here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

Also, try to vote for HvH manually and see if my program "catches on" and overwrites your 1v1 votes, that seems to help for some mysterious reason.

Tried that and my random picks stayed up there after running the application.

P.S. After looking at the output and finding where it says who to vote for in 1v1, I picked each one manually on the Xunlai Prediction page and it managed to save my predictions then.

MrGuildBoi

Desert Nomad

Join Date: May 2006

A/

25 Nov 2008 at 18:21 - 19

What do you do on step 2? I don't know computer programming or know what syntaxing a command prompt is.

I also tried opening predictor.cmd, but it just closes a second after.

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

25 Nov 2008 at 18:56 - 20

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrGuildBoi

What do you do on step 2? I don't know computer programming or know what syntaxing a command prompt is.

I also tried opening predictor.cmd, but it just closes a second after.

If you want your command prompt to point to a certain folder/directory when opening it, follow these instructions: http://www.msfn.org/board/Command-pr...s-t117718.html.

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

25 Nov 2008 at 19:19 - 21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightow

Tried that and my random picks stayed up there after running the application.

I figured out what was wrong; it is fixed in new version (Which is already online).

Quote:

Originally Posted by esthetic

Can you update the results? Additional participants in the GvG and HvH have qualified Nov. tourney since your first post. I am not downloading until i see it work first.

MrGuildBoi

Desert Nomad

Join Date: May 2006

A/

25 Nov 2008 at 20:07 - 22

I got it to work, thanks ^-^

But is it supposed to vote for you? Cause the prompt just ran and didn't do anything but show wall of text.

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

25 Nov 2008 at 20:23 - 23

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrGuildBoi

I got it to work, thanks ^-^

But is it supposed to vote for you? Cause the prompt just ran and didn't do anything but show wall of text.

What does wall of text say?

MrGuildBoi

Desert Nomad

Join Date: May 2006

A/

25 Nov 2008 at 20:40 - 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

What does wall of text say?

The guilds, the HvH teams and their ratings, and it looks through each month. It also says who I should vote for, but doesn't automatically vote for me.

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

25 Nov 2008 at 21:02 - 25

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

I figured out what was wrong; it is fixed in new version (Which is already online).

Wonderful; just one more question then. Do I have to re-download the application to get the new version?

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

27 Nov 2008 at 07:16 - 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightow

Wonderful; just one more question then. Do I have to re-download the application to get the new version?

Yes, you do. After all automatic updates for this kind of stuff are no-no

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrGuildBoi

The guilds, the HvH teams and their ratings, and it looks through each month. It also says who I should vote for, but doesn't automatically vote for me.

Make sure that you supply correct username, password and user_id.

Does it end with error or does output look basically like what Nightow pasted? Can you post here your output (remeber to edit out your loging details!)?

Remeber, when it wotes it won't open browser window with XTH or anything like that.

MrGuildBoi

Desert Nomad

Join Date: May 2006

A/

27 Nov 2008 at 08:08 - 27

Yeah, it's like Nightow's output. Let me try again. You just type "predictor (email) (pass) (user_id)" right?

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

27 Nov 2008 at 08:40 - 28

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrGuildBoi

Yeah, it's like Nightow's output. Let me try again. You just type "predictor (email) (pass) (user_id)" right?

Right.

If this does not work, get new version, I added ton of debugging info. You enable detailed logging by editing first line of log4j.properties to look like this (basically, replace INFO with DEBUG):

Code:

log4j.rootLogger=DEBUG, File

This will cause file app.log to contain very detailed information about what happened when communicating with XTH which should help me to figure out what happened and went wrong.

Remeber that this file will contain your XTH password and username and everything so take minute to find this info and remove it before sending it to me.

Navaros

Forge Runner

Join Date: Apr 2005

Mo/Me

27 Nov 2008 at 12:53 - 29

Is there a way for this tool to simply give you it's predictions and not vote for you?

Ie: Give you the predictions information that this tool provides, and then let you manually go enter that information yourself into the website.

That way the tool won't need your userid/pw, and Anet won't know that you used it, right?

I would prefer that method, if you could make it.

sykoone

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Dec 2005

Mystical Chaos

E/

27 Nov 2008 at 13:15 - 30

To make it not vote for you, just enter some nonsense data for the user id. It still presents the list of predicted winners, so all you gotta do is vote manually using that information.

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

27 Nov 2008 at 13:25 - 31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navaros

Is there a way for this tool to simply give you it's predictions and not vote for you?

Ie: Give you the predictions information that this tool provides, and then let you manually go enter that information yourself into the website.

That way the tool won't need your userid/pw, and Anet won't know that you used it, right?

I would prefer that method, if you could make it.

You can run it with fake credentials, in that case tool will run but will not vote (well, it will try to vote but for nonexistant account).

Or you can simply ask someone to post their results here and vote according to them. That way you don't have to download and run it at all.

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

27 Nov 2008 at 14:51 - 32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightow

If you want your command prompt to point to a certain folder/directory when opening it, follow these instructions: http://www.msfn.org/board/Command-pr...s-t117718.html.

If you have Windows XP, you can use one of the Windows Powertoys, the CmdHere one:
http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/d...powertoys.mspx
It's built-in into Vista:
http://maximumpcguides.com/windows-v...windows-vista/

zwei2stein: same 1v1 problem here, output is the same as for Nightow.

Btw, Navaros's question is answered by Nightow output previously posted (tinypaste is a very useful website!):
http://tinypaste.com/d9d3c
Look after the line "Picking who to vote for."

zwei2stein

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Jun 2006

Europe

The German Order [GER]

N/

27 Nov 2008 at 15:26 - 33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

zwei2stein: same 1v1 problem here, output is the same as for Nightow.

Should be fixed in latest version (which is already online)

Navaros

Forge Runner

Join Date: Apr 2005

Mo/Me

27 Nov 2008 at 17:29 - 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Btw, Navaros's question is answered by Nightow output previously posted (tinypaste is a very useful website!):
http://tinypaste.com/d9d3c
Look after the line "Picking who to vote for."

So to enter my votes according to what the AI predicts, do I just enter the names in the same sequential order that they appear in that text? I don't understand what the numbers next to the names text means.

For example, if I did it in sequential order my votes would be for the top 8 GVG:

1. Rebel Rising (Q.P. 24)
2. Whats Going On (Q.P. 111)
3. Team Paradigm (Q.P. 30)
4. Stealing Society (Q.P. 41)
5. Straight Outta Kamadan (Q.P. 20)
6. Amazing Strength (Q.P. 65)
7. Steel Phoenix (Q.P. 20)
8. Pandas For World Domination (Q.P. 160)

Is that what the AI is predicting for the top 8, or no?

For 1vs1, it the sequential order is:

1. Heros Useless Now (Q.P. 40)
2. Si Le Nt Sl Ay Er (Q.P. 24)
3. Rainbow Zoop Zoop (Q.P. 22)
4. Assel No Lifer Haha (Q.P. 31)
5. Hadshi Teh Ranger (Q.P. 54)
6. The Getaway Special (Q.P. 21)
7. X Se Xy Squirrel X (Q.P. 43)
8. I S N O W Y I (Q.P. 20)

Is that what the AI is predicting for the top 8, or no?

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

27 Nov 2008 at 18:01 - 35

Re-download the application Navaros as you will now get different results.

http://tinypaste.com/6bef595

P.S. Why does the output include predictions past the 8th and final slot?

Navaros

Forge Runner

Join Date: Apr 2005

Mo/Me

27 Nov 2008 at 18:38 - 36

I never downloaded it in the first place, I was going by the text in the link you directed me to.

But I'll download it and then put in fake credentials if that's what needs to be done.

Still need to be sure if I just vote for the names text in sequential order that they appear in the text, voting with the first one as number 1, and second as number 2 etc.?

What do the numbers next to the names text mean?

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

27 Nov 2008 at 20:00 - 37

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

Should be fixed in latest version (which is already online)

Yep, it does record 1v1 now. I also checked a few times that it overrides previous results and it's working. Following Navaros's request, you could parse the first param for a keyword to indicate you only want the predictions outputted, not posted (...or not, fake creds work too, it's simply cleaner

).

Navaros: yes, you're correct, results are read in this order. The numbers are basically the rank used in ordering them.

Nightow: candidate players/guilds are gathered from these pages, so more than 8 are outputted, but only 8 are recorded on XTH.

Hey, it appears you've added the options 1v1 and GvG

Narcissia

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Jul 2007

BC Canada

Guild With No [NAM???]

27 Nov 2008 at 20:05 - 38

i think u should just post the results u get from it each month so we dont have to dl it lol

Nightow

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Kindred Order of Souls [KOS]

27 Nov 2008 at 20:28 - 39

Just a heads up folks, sounds like at least two of the guilds are playing as smurfs.

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...0338766&page=2

Quote:

I keep forgeting whos smurf is what kmd=gg and rawr=trim not sure who else plays what smurfs

Edit: Ok, now it sounds like kmd will be the only smurf guild this time around. I'd keep following the prediction threads just to be safe though.

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

27 Nov 2008 at 20:31 - 40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Narcissia

i think u should just post the results u get from it each month so we dont have to dl it lol

Well, it's much faster:

1) old method: look up the prediction threads(2-5 clicks+dozens of reading)/past tournament results(2-5 clicks+"analyze")/guess from obs(lots of time+"analyze") -> put results into XTH each months (=~ 20-30 clicks)

You can argue that the "analyse" is where the real prediction happens, but well it's free zkeys for most people...

2) new method: download the stuff once (1 click+unzip), run it each month once (1 click+3 words to type)

You can even modify "predictor.cmd" (as a text file) to call the zwei2stein's predictor for all your accounts.