Mini polar bear returns - same drop rate

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/User_...ra#Mini_Ursula

same drop rate FTL.

So, I guess everyone will be farming the Snowman Lair this Winterday... yaaaay. </sarcasm>

I might farm it a few times, we shall see. I could use a few thousand ecto...

Good.

If they'd make it a more reasonable drop-rate, I might be tempted to run that quest until I get it, the boredom setting in after run #2 notwithstanding. This way, I'll have no reason to take time away from the snowball arena.

haha, imagine if anet secretly removed it?

NOOOOOOOOES! Don't jinx it!

Ehh.... drop rate can stay the same... now that we know about it more than a few days before the end of the event... eh? ehhhhh?

The Mini Polar Bear will not be available in the Chest of Wintersday Past, which is the normal chest in the Secret Lair of the Snowmen quest - Gaile 21:26, 2 January 2008.

Here's the link - http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Talk:...i_Pola r_Bear

Is the drop rate the same in NM and HM?

Maybe I will take a few runs but I think after a couple of hours and no polar bear I'd probably give up.

That, we will not.

You might not be, but I'll bet hundreds op people will.

And yes, to clarify: it's the reward for a quest, not the normal dungeon run.
http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Wintersday_Chest

good thing the drop rate will stay the same. else it would be meaningless if everyone ran around wit one.

I just got two in a row.

there will be plenty of them. They would be farmed 24/7 by hundreds of people during the whole event. I guess there would be no issue with getting one later on. Their price will go down as well. I think there is no need to increase a drop rate.

I guess alot of people will be crying and angry now.

How sad.


EDIT @ above: The drop rate is EXTREMELY low, so the price won't go down that much.

Oh noes, that guy has the same mini as I do! That must mean I fail at GW!1!!


A mini is there for the Barbie-kids. You choose a Barbie based on which girl is sporting the best haircut.
But in the end you are still playing with Barbies.

price WILL go down, because there will be more, common sence.

the price of them has been goign down slowly up until now due to people not wanting to risk if they did drop this winters day, if they didnt the price would sky rocket,

it is a risk either way to have one.

Quoted from: http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/User_...ra#Mini_Ursula


You must be really dense if you think only 2 more will pop out as a result of this year's upcoming Wintersday festival. 2 polar bears triggered from last year isn't even an accurate number for the actual amount yielded --Though it's possible that 2 is an accurate estimate of how many Ursula's are currently left ingame as a result of the number of them being removed from the multiple account bans that occurred during the whole duping fiasco.

Point I'm trying to make is this: More than 2 were triggered from last year.

Take into account of the circumstances then: that hardly anyone even bothered to attempt Wintersday last year because it was not known that the mini Polar Bear would be an actual reward. Actually, its existence was even (wrongly)DENIED by Gaile in an interview, which probably even discouraged players to even participate.


This year,the sheer # of people going to farm Wintersday will drastically outnumber the count from last year (obviously), and will consequently yield an even larger number of Ursulas being triggered. Added the fact that Regina has now confirmed that Ursula will be offered again this year, how many more people now would you care to guess will participate in hopes to snag one?

With a drop rate somewhere around 1 per 100 000 chests opened and time constraints setting the maximal number of opened chests per player at around 500 (unless you bot 24/7) it is indeed possible that the total number of mini polar bears will reach that of other rare minis. The question is, how many people are willing to spend their entire holiday on a wild goose chase with a negligible chance of producing a favorable outcome?

If I remember correctly, a vast part of the guru community went into farming frenzy for the final few hours, not turning up a single bear. That has to amount to quite a number of chests popped.

I'm not going to play those odds.

Around 3 dropped last year, that is all. If you believe otherwise, your information is incorrect.

This year, I imagine maybe another 10 will drop. It will be a stretch if over 20 will drop, so I would say 10-20 is a good guess. The drop rates are tiny, everyone knows this. Low player activity paired with a tiny chance of getting one means that not as many players will be farming it as you think.