Mini polar bear returns - same drop rate
Eragon Zarroc
what is the drop rate? like 1 in 1,000,000?
Nessar
Not wasting my time farming it. I know plenty of people who will. All I gotta say is goodluck lulz
netniwk
I wonder what the person who implented it was thinking...
"Oh, let's code a minipet with a 0.000001% drop chance so that almost no one can enjoy it.."
"Oh, let's code a minipet with a 0.000001% drop chance so that almost no one can enjoy it.."
slowerpoke
ah yes, last xmas was full of lols
someone spotted the mini pre loaded in the update, we were told it was fake
near the end of the xmas event one turns up, its called a photoshop, then suddenly its real. only few hours left everyone goes into farming frenzy
now we have 2weeks of farmin to look forward to instead of sitting back and enjoying things, and by the sounds of it the chances of gettin that mini are no better
someone spotted the mini pre loaded in the update, we were told it was fake
near the end of the xmas event one turns up, its called a photoshop, then suddenly its real. only few hours left everyone goes into farming frenzy
now we have 2weeks of farmin to look forward to instead of sitting back and enjoying things, and by the sounds of it the chances of gettin that mini are no better
ThunderStruck
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Originally Posted by netniwk
I wonder what the person who implented it was thinking...
"Oh, let's code a minipet with a 0.000001% drop chance so that almost no one can enjoy it.." |
The First Silvari
I rezed an old PC Thread on the mini polar to see what it would go for these days but it got *Closed* immediately by someone. Anyone want to venture a guess on what they go for now? Thinking about arranging a guild group to farm it for a few days. ^^ If we get one to be sold and profits split YaY!
*Edit* a solo quest? darn!
*Edit* its like buying a lottery ticket, odds are you will not win but you do anyway cause the chance is there no matter how remote.
*Edit* a solo quest? darn!
*Edit* its like buying a lottery ticket, odds are you will not win but you do anyway cause the chance is there no matter how remote.
furanshisuko
hmm so winters day... farm polar bear quests? or vaettirs??
netniwk
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Originally Posted by ThunderStruck
I take it you haven't seen some of the WoW drop rates, hmm?
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But because one game has crappy features is no excuse to implent it into your own.
wind fire and ice
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Originally Posted by fenix
Around 3 dropped last year, that is all. If you believe otherwise, your information is incorrect.
This year, I imagine maybe another 10 will drop. It will be a stretch if over 20 will drop, so I would say 10-20 is a good guess. The drop rates are tiny, everyone knows this. Low player activity paired with a tiny chance of getting one means that not as many players will be farming it as you think. |
4 dropped last year.
and no,not many people will be farming it,the insanely low drop rate makes it pointless to try if you really think about it,i doubt more then 8 more will drop.
Tullzinski
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Originally Posted by Hissy
You could be right.
Although, I farmed the hell out of that quest last year without even knowing there was a chance of a polar bear: because it's quick, easy, and gives a lot of candy shards. I expect it will be the same this year. It's an excellent farming spot even without the polar bear. Shard drop rate is better than HM raptors - over 190/hour (about 130/hour from drops and quest reward... plus 5 goodies from the chest at the end of each run, which are equivelent to 2.5 wintersday gifts, which are equivelent to 5 shards each. Effective total: about 190 shards/hour, more if you're fast). And you don't need a high-level character, EotN, or a Raptor farming build to do it. Makes a nice change from Raptors if you're after shards (wintersday prezzie stuff)... AND there's a chance of winning the polar bear lottery. Bonus! :-D |
Thanks ANET for bringing it back, I for one appreciate it. Do not listen to the complaints, you all are doing a great job keep it up.
Just an afterthought, if more people are playing that spot....the frequency of payoff will occur more often correct? Kinda like a slot machine, the more you play the machine the more jackpots you hit. In this case it is free to play and it pays you in the process.
Vilaptca
Its nice that we'll have something rare in this game still, but using a holiday event to drop it on us really isn't cool.
Make a stupid weekend event that adds rare stuff for one weekend, but everyone should be able to get everything from a holiday event without trying too hard.
I'll be on for my mask, but I'm not even going to bother with the polar bear, its not worth my time.
Make a stupid weekend event that adds rare stuff for one weekend, but everyone should be able to get everything from a holiday event without trying too hard.
I'll be on for my mask, but I'm not even going to bother with the polar bear, its not worth my time.
The Arching Healer
I thought there were like 3 polar bear drops last wintersday. Considering now everyone knows about the 1mmort4l bear, I think ~50 bears will pop out now.
Tullzinski
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Originally Posted by The Arching Healer
I thought there were like 3 polar bear drops last wintersday. Considering now everyone knows about the 1mmort4l bear, I think ~50 bears will pop out now.
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No way lets get 500,000 people do that quest twice an hour for 12 days over all servers and time zones that 576 mini polar bears!!! even better lets have 5 million players twice an hour for 12 days that 5760 minis! and then we can all share them for 2 days each during the year it will be a polar bear utopia. too much time on my hands with my calculator
killerbot3009
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Originally Posted by lordheinous
WRONG, the bear doesn't drop from the normal secret lair, but from a seperate quest that takes place there accessed from one of the port cities. If you're going to crow like an idiot, at least know what you're talking about first please.
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HawkofStorms
I agree with Shayne Hawke. I'd rather spend my time playing snowball arena (only 11 wins away from getting rank 3 skillz and my gamer HoM statute) which is definately my favorite holiday game as it requires more skill then luck (a la rollerbettle).
And vaetarr's are a better bet if you want to far for CC shards and wintersday drops. If I'm going to mindlessly farm, I'd rather take a sure thing at making ~50-100k then a 1 in a billion chance of making 100k + xxx ecto.
Still, best of luck to everybody who is farming for these. There should only be another ~10 or so polar bears this year if the drop rate really is the same.
PS I find it funny even a year later that so many people are confused and don't know where this thing drops. If I go to Umbral and see a ton of people farming the Wintersday past chest for this in game I'm going to laugh.
PPS Everybody claiming prices will plumett or they got a polar bear last year (or 2, or they knew a guy who knew a guy) stop trolling trying to drive down prices.
And vaetarr's are a better bet if you want to far for CC shards and wintersday drops. If I'm going to mindlessly farm, I'd rather take a sure thing at making ~50-100k then a 1 in a billion chance of making 100k + xxx ecto.
Still, best of luck to everybody who is farming for these. There should only be another ~10 or so polar bears this year if the drop rate really is the same.
PS I find it funny even a year later that so many people are confused and don't know where this thing drops. If I go to Umbral and see a ton of people farming the Wintersday past chest for this in game I'm going to laugh.
PPS Everybody claiming prices will plumett or they got a polar bear last year (or 2, or they knew a guy who knew a guy) stop trolling trying to drive down prices.
Tramp
This will be the most farmed item over a discrete period of time in the history of guildwars. I predict not hundreds but many, many, many thousands of farmers. The only question is what is the drop rate. Last year there was not enough time and confusion about the legitimacy to determine an estimated drop rate. What is the drop rate? Can Regina tell us? I need to know if I should spend my time shoving people out of the way to get to the NPC giving the quest... or if I should set aside ectos and buy it.
Figure farmers can earn 30k/hour doing basic farming. Figure ectos = 4.75k. This is my back of the envelope time value calculation:
Drop rate:
1:100 x 10 minutes = 1k minutes = 16.6 hours x 30k/h = 105e
1:1,000 x 10 minutes = 10k minutes = 166.6 hours x 30k/h = 1050e
1:10,000 x 10 minutes = 100k minutes = 1666.6 hours x 30k/h = 10,500e
1:100,000 x 10 minutes = 1M minutes = 16,666.6 hours x 30k/h = 105,000e
If the drop rate is reasonable at 1:100 or 1:1000 then I going for it and will have fun farming. If it is crazy insane odds...then forget it. Time is better spent reading a book. This isnt my estimate of what it is worth... just what your time would be worth to farm it at given drop rates. Since so many people will be farming, and so few people have thousands of ectos to spend, my guess is it will never be a 10k ecto or 100k ecto pet. No way. Supply will be greater than demand at those crazy kind of prices. Drop down into the 1.5k, 2k, 3k, 4k ecto price range and I can see demand sucking up supply at the really bad drop rates.
So what is the real drop rate? I just went to the library and got 3 good books to start reading. Need to know if I should spend the next 10 days excersizing my fingers to get ready for farming/button mashing... or start cracking the books open early. Can Regina tell us?
Figure farmers can earn 30k/hour doing basic farming. Figure ectos = 4.75k. This is my back of the envelope time value calculation:
Drop rate:
1:100 x 10 minutes = 1k minutes = 16.6 hours x 30k/h = 105e
1:1,000 x 10 minutes = 10k minutes = 166.6 hours x 30k/h = 1050e
1:10,000 x 10 minutes = 100k minutes = 1666.6 hours x 30k/h = 10,500e
1:100,000 x 10 minutes = 1M minutes = 16,666.6 hours x 30k/h = 105,000e
If the drop rate is reasonable at 1:100 or 1:1000 then I going for it and will have fun farming. If it is crazy insane odds...then forget it. Time is better spent reading a book. This isnt my estimate of what it is worth... just what your time would be worth to farm it at given drop rates. Since so many people will be farming, and so few people have thousands of ectos to spend, my guess is it will never be a 10k ecto or 100k ecto pet. No way. Supply will be greater than demand at those crazy kind of prices. Drop down into the 1.5k, 2k, 3k, 4k ecto price range and I can see demand sucking up supply at the really bad drop rates.
So what is the real drop rate? I just went to the library and got 3 good books to start reading. Need to know if I should spend the next 10 days excersizing my fingers to get ready for farming/button mashing... or start cracking the books open early. Can Regina tell us?
Tullzinski
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Originally Posted by Tramp
This will be the most farmed item over a discrete period of time in the history of guildwars. I predict not hundreds but many, many, many thousands of farmers. The only question is what is the drop rate. Last year there was not enough time and confusion about the legitimacy to determine an estimated drop rate. What is the drop rate? Can Regina tell us? I need to know if I should spend my time shoving people out of the way to get to the NPC giving the quest... or if I should set aside ectos and buy it.
Figure farmers can earn 30k/hour doing basic farming. Figure ectos = 4.75k. This is my back of the envelope time value calculation: Drop rate: 1:100 x 10 minutes = 1k minutes = 16.6 hours x 30k/h = 105e 1:1,000 x 10 minutes = 10k minutes = 166.6 hours x 30k/h = 1050e 1:10,000 x 10 minutes = 100k minutes = 1666.6 hours x 30k/h = 10,500e 1:100,000 x 10 minutes = 1M minutes = 16,666.6 hours x 30k/h = 105,000e If the drop rate is reasonable at 1:100 or 1:1000 then I going for it and will have fun farming. If it is crazy insane odds...then forget it. Time is better spent reading a book. This isnt my estimate of what it is worth... just what your time would be worth to farm it at given drop rates. Since so many people will be farming, and so few people have thousands of ectos to spend, my guess is it will never be a 10k ecto or 100k ecto pet. No way. Supply will be greater than demand at those crazy kind of prices. Drop down into the 1.5k, 2k, 3k, 4k ecto price range and I can see demand sucking up supply at the really bad drop rates. So what is the real drop rate? I just went to the library and got 3 good books to start reading. Need to know if I should spend the next 10 days excersizing my fingers to get ready for farming/button mashing... or start cracking the books open early. Can Regina tell us? |
Fates
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Originally Posted by Tullzinski
1:1000000 I believe is the rate.
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Louis1976
I see, there are a lot of Pros here who know a shizzle lot about rare petz and who know the exactly number of Polarz in teh game - oh, and they of course know some guys who would spend 10000armbraces for teh bear!!!!11 
lol - imagine price to drop <2000e
I had bought my Polar in July for 6000 or 7000 ecto, don't remember exact amount, and actually I kinda overpaid. Had a hard time selling it, finally dedicated it and sold for something like 3500-4000e - people were afraid of this event and dropping prices, and imo they were right. We'll see.
lol - imagine price to drop <2000e
I had bought my Polar in July for 6000 or 7000 ecto, don't remember exact amount, and actually I kinda overpaid. Had a hard time selling it, finally dedicated it and sold for something like 3500-4000e - people were afraid of this event and dropping prices, and imo they were right. We'll see.
ValaOfTheFens
As cute as it is, I'd sell it quick. 
I love my mini Lich and its my mini of choice.
A11Eur0
I don't care what the price drops to, it's more than I've had yet so I'll let other people spend their time powertrading them back up to double what I get. I'll be able to afford anything I want anyway. And to answer your comments that are sure to come: I don't want rare minis. They're a waste of space and are nothing more than bragging tools.
Sjeng
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Originally Posted by Aerial Assault
You must be really dense if you think only 2 more will pop out as a result of this year's upcoming Wintersday festival.
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I liked Lensor's reply. It kinda says what I think as well:
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You won't get everything for free, y'know. Sometimes you have to you know, put some effort in? If you really want that mini, you'll farm for it, otherwise, stop complaining. Boo-RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOing-hoo. -- Mini Me That is like the worst argument ever. It is not about getting stuff "for free", it is about the unwiseness of introducing an extremely valuable farmable/grindable item, make it only available under a short period of time, and have that time coincide with the very period when the community should in stead be encouraged to celebrate and have fun. Sure people can skip the farming, and many will, but that does not change the fact that the MPB is an incentive to grind through Wintersday. Kinda like offering people the chance to get 1 million dollars if they work through Christmas. Sure, it is anyone's choice to say no, but it is really an offer that should be made in the first place? --Lensor |
Risus
This is why I quit...nothing to Guild Wars except 5 year olds who spam the crap outa you in PvP with DoD on, or mindless money obssessed freaks in PvE...
Bug John
the droprate is so low that I won't waste my time...
if they made it more reasonable I'd certainly give it a try
if they made it more reasonable I'd certainly give it a try
Bowstring Badass
Endless grind for money oh joy.
SerenitySilverstar
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Originally Posted by Fates Monk
You're talking out of your ass. You, and everyone else that thinks they know the drop rate. A-net has never published any drop rates.
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Gli
What we do know is that a great number of guru people spent the last few hours of the event running that quest like madmen, with no bear to show for it. That's enough to tell me the droprate isn't worth my effort.
dr love
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Originally Posted by Shayne Hawke
Enjoy your one-in-a-million chance at getting a Polar Bear.
I'll enjoy my easy gamer points. |
Aerial Assault
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Originally Posted by Sjeng
You must really really be dense if you cannot recognize sarcasm. Please refrain from flaming others, but rather reply with something constructive. Or at least give your opinion without flaming others.
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Sarcasm? Maybe I didn't get it because it was poorly written, but I digress. Intentional bitching or not, you inadvertently encourage that kind of idiotic posting, the kind which we already see too much of on these forums, so you had it coming regardless.
Thanks for disregarding the rest of my response too btw, if you spent less time worrying about your e-rep, maybe you'd have read the rest of it and realized that I was actually making a constructive response.
Operative 14
I'll probably give the dungeon two or three runs just to see if I great really, really, really, really lucky, and then I'll drop that to go do fun stuff with my Guildies.
Though I have to say, I don't understand why the polar bear has to be so rare. I know they felt like there was a bit of a fiasco with the Mini Pigs at CNY 2007, but I don't see why polar bears have to be neigh on impossible to get. It seems like everyone should have a reasonable chance of getting one, like the Celestial Rats. Not everyone needs to get 10 of them, but it would sure be nice If they increased the drop rate to at least a spitting chance of a drop. I would be extremely interested to find out their reasoning for such a low drop rate on a festival item.
Though I have to say, I don't understand why the polar bear has to be so rare. I know they felt like there was a bit of a fiasco with the Mini Pigs at CNY 2007, but I don't see why polar bears have to be neigh on impossible to get. It seems like everyone should have a reasonable chance of getting one, like the Celestial Rats. Not everyone needs to get 10 of them, but it would sure be nice If they increased the drop rate to at least a spitting chance of a drop. I would be extremely interested to find out their reasoning for such a low drop rate on a festival item.
Valcion
bleh. judging by the farming frenzy, i'll be able to get my dwarven to r10, afterwards its time spent with family and friend. probability is always against me so i'm not even gonna try to purposely farm for it.
MirkoTeran
What were people expecting? To be able "WTS Stack of mini polar bears = 100k" or what?
Daenara
I will probably do some dwarven farming in the dungeon for any characters I want to get armor on... and hope to pick up a mini polar bear on the way. >.> If I don't pick one up, I will go on with life.
Earth
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Originally Posted by Sjeng
You must really really be dense if you cannot recognize sarcasm. Please refrain from flaming others, but rather reply with something constructive. Or at least give your opinion without flaming others.
I liked Lensor's reply. It kinda says what I think as well: QFT. |
Oh and raising the droprate won't do much, probably. People will still farm for it.
Sjeng
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Originally Posted by Aerial Assault
Sarcasm? Maybe I didn't get it because it was poorly written, but I digress. Intentional bitching or not, you inadvertently encourage that kind of idiotic posting, the kind which we already see too much of on these forums, so you had it coming regardless.
Thanks for disregarding the rest of my response too btw, if you spent less time worrying about your e-rep, maybe you'd have read the rest of it and realized that I was actually making a constructive response. |
First of all, if something isn't written clearly enough for you to understand it, then that still does not justify you calling me dense.
Secondly, it's written perfectly fine. I'm sorry I'm not American or English. It's not my native language, but I think people can understand what I write perfectly well.
Thirdly, I did not discard the rest of your post. I simply asked you to refrain from flaming others in your posts, yet you do so again ("poorly written"), even after I pointed out to you it's not really nice to do (with a good example of "right back at ya, buddy", to illustrate). So I politely ask you once more to refrain from doing so.
Lastly, being sarcastic doesn't mean "I had it coming". That's your opinion, and as stated in point 1, it wasn't justified. I certainly never "encouraged" any flaming at all, not even inadvertently, as you say.
I never attacked you, nor anyone else, but when attacked, I defend myself. I'll just consider it "critisizm" and be done with it, although I prefer constructive critisizm.
Back on topic (hopefully): I wonder why Anet adds such rare things to the game in the first place. As has been pointed out before these things will only be e-peen enlargements for the ridiculously rich, as the casual player won't have a chance in hell to get one. Sure, you might say "who cares", and you're right, I don't care about the MPB. What I do care about is why Anet is doing these strange things. It's a one in a million shot to get rich in one blow. What's the point in that? I thought anet didn't want that kind of thing to happen, what with all the farming nerfs.
Anet: if you want to give the players special gifts, do it like the Moa chick quests, or the MOX quests, those were brilliant, or raise the drop rate to that of the end-chest greens. At least those get cheaper the more people actually play instead of grind/farm.
I simply don't understand Anet's policy anymore.
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Originally Posted by Aerial assault
why don't you ask something constructive or voice a reason for your disapproval?
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Oh boy, I fail because I said 2 instead of 5! A whopping big difference. Oh and that again is sarcasm there. *rolls eyes*
@Earth: whut?
Aerial Assault
You want constructive criticism? Here it is:
^
Im calling you dense because your prediction is... for lack of a more befitting description I'll plagerize you a bit...*cough*fail*cough* . Probably as a result of failing to grasp the difference in circumstances between this year and last year's Wintersday event.
You are getting flamed for your response because you rudely complain and criticize to Regina like an idiot throwing a tantrum. It IS poorly written because it fails to deliver a point, there was nothing constructive about that post, it was (supposed to be) "sarcastic".
Instead of QQ'ing pointlessly(like so many people do here already), why don't you ask something constructive or voice a reason for your disapproval?
"Why is the drop rate the same? I don't like it because..."
^Could have asked something along those lines.
zzzzzzz
Back on topic: ANet adds minipets of this rarity for one reason: to keep you playing. That is their policy.
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Originally Posted by Sjeng
Same drop rate!?!? Great. 2 more people will get one then. GG! Can't believe you people want players to grind the snowman cave the entire wintersday event. *cough*fail*cough* Sjeng talk 06:31, 9 December 2008 (UTC)
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Im calling you dense because your prediction is... for lack of a more befitting description I'll plagerize you a bit...*cough*fail*cough* . Probably as a result of failing to grasp the difference in circumstances between this year and last year's Wintersday event.
You are getting flamed for your response because you rudely complain and criticize to Regina like an idiot throwing a tantrum. It IS poorly written because it fails to deliver a point, there was nothing constructive about that post, it was (supposed to be) "sarcastic".
Instead of QQ'ing pointlessly(like so many people do here already), why don't you ask something constructive or voice a reason for your disapproval?
"Why is the drop rate the same? I don't like it because..."
^Could have asked something along those lines.
zzzzzzz
Back on topic: ANet adds minipets of this rarity for one reason: to keep you playing. That is their policy.
Kula
Not like it makes a difference what kind of minis you have for GW2. Only interested in stuff that affects GW2 not with all that other PvE fluff.
Jongo River
After last year I'm surprised ANet has the nerve to include this crap again. It was the stupidest festival trick they pulled, that didn't involve giving pets back. I'm not surprised they haven't changed the droprate, though - they do so love to protect the tiny contingent of power-traders out there, who are apparently far more important than the rest of us!
Still it's nice to see traditions forming - yet another GW festival fails before it even starts.
Still it's nice to see traditions forming - yet another GW festival fails before it even starts.