Confirmed Mini Polar Bears

My runs take 5 minutes no cons. On my 162th run, on my monk. Yes I counted and No Bear.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2iglv0w.jpg

I just run past each group or single popup by running side to side dodging the snow balls (2 minutes). When I get to the waves of grentches I keep casting Ice Breaker on freezie and when they all die I put on ice fort and chill waiting for team to spawn.(3-4 minutes) (Hint Hint-Bring a 20% enchant weapon and half skill recharge of skills 20%)

Mod edit: Please keep image size down, or just post links

I've done about..50 runs or so, no bear.

Showed my guildie how to do it, bear on first run.
Other guildie also got a q9 fire bds on the same SoO run as me

Over 300 and no bear. >.>

Im confused on your guildie thing... He got a req 9 fire bds(??) on the same SoO(??) run as you? SoO? What is that? Did you mean SoS? Though I doubt it because I have only gotten Wintersdays items from that quest...

(Right, BDS from another thread meant Bone Dragon Staff) oO

On a happier note. Atleast 200 runs down, and no MPB.

The quoted drop rate of 1/500 is ludicrous.

Assume for the moment that 500 people enter the quest every minute (and succeed at a later time).

The implication of the above drop rate is that one drops about every minute.

If you think that 1440 miniature polar bears are being created every day given the lack of threads in High End and lack of sellers in-game, you're nuts.

Even if only 50 people enter the quest in each minute, that's still 144 per day.

The drop rate is clearly far, far, far worse than 1/500.

Um..the only person with stats even supporting this is obviously faking his numbers and we've already established that several times. This thread's purpose is to state known information and stats, not more guestimates.

Let's see....if i go back though every page of this post, i think this has already been stated multiple times. You felt it was necessary to inform us how, specifically, you felt as well cause you are that important eh? Why, thanks so so much! (botting? rofl!)

If you want to do the run on an easier profession, you can start a new character in Nightfall, except for Rit and Assassin. Less than 10 minutes later, you should be in Kamadan with access to the quest(no level requirement). Its also a great way to start a survivor. If you want to run on monk, go fer it. 10 minutes is nothing in the long term

On a different topic..my successful run count is now and even 1000.
A breakdown of the last 491 runs is:
21 Stacks of Candy Cane Shards
491 Summoners
574 Spiked Eggnogs
565 Wintergreens
86 Rainbow CC's
85 Eggnog
70 Peppermint CC's
21 Tonics

..which is all gonna be sold for around 1 million plat(not including the candy canes and tonics). Anyone else think this run still isn't worth it? Also, don't forget, that for 491 runs. I already sold the drops from the first 509. So 2 million plat is nice plus I got a cuddly little bear too, and for FREE!

Another 40-50 runs today, no Polar Bear.

By the way, Jasmine: Thanks for clarifying that some of us enjoy doing this and we are still getting items that others are getting, plus a lot more shards for gifts. Cause personally the shards aren't dropping for me from the monsters I kill. I've gotten a few, but not near the amount from the runs. I have over 10 stacks of shards, probably close to 12 stacks, sure it's not that many, but I have been doing other things like skill capping too. I do some runs, sure it gets repetitive, and then I go get some elite skills, come back and do some more runs. I too am working on sweet tooth and party titles, not to keen on the drunkard title, so that just means more money (or trading items for sweets and party items) for me. And if others don't want to use their time doing runs for a chance at an awesome mini, that's their deal. And continuing these runs is our deal ("our" being those of us that continue). Sorry to be off topic and that I don't have exact chest rewards data, but as mentioned before they are a little scewed from skill capping and delivering presents to scrappy (only if they spawn next to me as I spawn from coming back from a run).

Hey no problem. Honestly I have been having a blast doing this. And the payout at the end isn't bad either. So far I have 4 stacks of presents and we still have 10 more days to go. I figure the presents will go for 400ea at least. Any other thoughts on that? Anyone know what they normally go for? I promised myself I would keep the chest drops and sell the presents for a nice big pay day. Hey even if I only make 1.5-2 mil selling all my presents I will be a happy camper. It will sure pay for a couple of things on my "Wish List" which you can find on my GWW page! Sure maybe I wont get the polar bear, I sure hope I do, but maybe not, but I will get *something* nice, the last two elite armor sets I need to fill my HoM, that Astral Staff I have been dying for, that mini white rabbit and a few third years I don't have yet. It will be well worth it for me even without the MPB.

Well, umm, I have about 10 stacks of cc shards out of that quest alone (also more than one stack of snowman summoners, same with fruitcakes, etc.), no bear though.

I have tried reasoning with the chest, told him how badly I wanted one and that it was my bday on the 21st (he didn't care, lol), took out my minis, scared it, shook my fist at it, played flute for the bear to come out and follow me like the piper, sadly, none of those things worked.

I will continue trying to entice the little cutie out of that chest, and when I'm done with the quests (the last minute of wintersday, probably ), I'll post what I have gotten out of all those runs. And hopefully I get to include a Mini Polar Bear in my list.

Good luck to everyone who's been farming their hearts out!

well i've done over 300 runs and i've almost got my chaos gloves from selling the consumables so go figure

well worth it

Some of us need all the hope we can get.

27 stacks of CCS now.... no bear. Still trying.

Still no Bear for me after hundreds of run but am not giving up just yet
I still have hope.
One thing that does raise a question in me and sorry to go off topic to the actual purpose of this thread But
With all the CCS being farmed thats a lot that is now in the game stacks and stacks that people have and are not cashing in. "Puts hand up"
Remember when they did the pigs there were so many of them around that they decided to cut
some out of circulation and you traded 5 pigs for a celestial pig.
What IF they did the same thing this time around realized there mistake and you could trade i dunno
1000 2000 CCS for a bear?
Just something i was thinking of and prolly wrong about anyway. lol

We've had 3 drop in our alliance, all to people who only did about 200 runs each. >:|

I have done, and this is no bull here.. I have been keeping a watchful eye on my runs...

I have done yesterday (when I started) 165 runs. = no Bear
--6 hour sleep brake--
I have done today 119 runs this far = no Bear.

I have taken two brakes, and I've got it down to 3 minutes per chest open on average... using This method..

It does work, my computer is a monster so I can run all 5, There are some deaths from time to time from accidents but overall I'm getting like 1 chest ~ every 3.02 minutes or so.

mostly I control two at once, idle them, go with the other 2, and run the 5th somewhere in there depending on whats going on with the other 4.

However, I am almost 100% Sure now that a.net will not let the bear drop if they see 5x+ accounts on the same IP address.

However, I'm <..> close to giving up, I ran the damn thing with ONE account over 600 times last year with no luck.

The drop rate, if its based on a roll, is very low (perhaps 1 in 2000 or something. I have no deal idea) but I'm guessing that if ANY other factors are in the drop rate (Ie if Freezie dies and you get a moral boost) or something really annoying like that, Then then I'm more likely to win the lottery. The REAL lottery.

However, I wish all of you other people good luck. I am using one account that is sub level 20 because its the only char on that account, however no dice.. seems that the level has nothing to do with it.

Ok I'm farming shards. So about 100 successful run so far and no bear..
Although not my primary purpose, it would be a nice bonus ..
Congrats on those who go one and good luck to those who are actively farming for it.

Is it just me or is it like absolutely ridiculous how far those Grenches can throw a snowball at you from? I always thought that enemies basically needed to be within your aggro bubble to hit you from range? I'd really like to know how those pop up Grenches can manage to hit me with a snowball with they are like 2-3 aggro bubble lengths behind me. Sorry for the random rant but it's been annoying me all night!

zomg true. And out of nowhere you get hit with icicles, slowing you down when you were so far ahead

On topic: I levelled up my new mesmer Hermione to 10, it took 33 runs, and no more bears

Well my count as of right now is 225 Chests = No MPB in sight.
Now that is not counting the first 24 hours that I did this when I did not keep track of my runs. I estimate that I probably did 100 runs or so in that first 24 hours without sleep! But that is just a guess. So I am assuming my overall count is 325 Chests = Lots of Wintersday items!

BTW can anyone list what the "Going Rates" are for Wintersday Items? I'm trying to figure out about how much my loot is worth. I was thinking...

Fruitcake - 100ea
Snowman Summoners - 200ea
Eggnog - 100ea
Spiked Eggnog - 300ea
Yuletide Tonics - 400ea
Wintergreen Candy Canes - 200ea
Peppermint Candy Canes - 500ea
Rainbow Candy Canes - 750ea

Does that seem about right?

the droprate is 0/200

that is my success rate thus far