Confirmed Mini Polar Bears
ghoster
just done my 200 run - no golden letters... i'll do 25 more and resign ;|
IlikeGW
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Originally Posted by JSpayde
I quit polar bear farming after a guild mate of mine got it in one (out of one run total), sold the damn mini, and started gloating to me at 8am about how much ecto he made and how he beat Guild Wars. He doesn't even like GW and he gets the effing polar bear.
Screw you ANET. |
EroChrono
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Originally Posted by Zomeone
Hi guys and chicks,
Thought i'd participate in this conversation. I did over 100 runs to get a miniature polar bear, frustrating... And i finally realized that it's not worth it, i don't care even if it's the rarest mini in the game, it's still virtual item. So, i made myself a REAL polar bear minipet, i posted the photo here. I'm actually proud of myself, took 3 hours to make and it's more real than the virtual minipet... lol |
Regardless of how many polar bears you get, how much ecto you generate, it will never be as awesome as that home-made polar bear!
That picture really put a smile on my face
tmakinen
Some people don't have a professional level understanding of statistics but that's completely ok. It's sufficient here to point out that there are different methods of estimating the probability of event X but the methods are not equal when in comes to their confidence levels. Specifically, the suggested 'tell how many times you tried until you got one' method has abysmal confidence level unless a significant portion of the runs are longer than 1/P (i.e., if the probability is 1 in 1000 then at least a quarter of runs should be longer than that to determine the shape of the cumulative probability function). Estimates based on duplicates have even worse requirements.
Let me tell what works. You must answer these two questions: how many times has the chest been opened during the event, and, how many MPBs have dropped? You can give a decent estimate to the first question by observing people who talk to the Rift Warden. There's one opened chest for every two talks (since you have to zone between claiming the reward and retaking the quest). Do this over all active districts at different times of the day to get an average activity level. According my observations, the chest is opened about once every second, which equals about 1 million openings since the event started. If that has produced 100 MPBs the best estimate would then be 1 in 10,000 or if there are 2000 MPBs in the circulation the odds would be 1 in 500. I feel pretty confident with the number of chests opened, so it's your turn to guess how many bears are out there. This is the most robust available method of estimating the MPB drop probability.
Let me tell what works. You must answer these two questions: how many times has the chest been opened during the event, and, how many MPBs have dropped? You can give a decent estimate to the first question by observing people who talk to the Rift Warden. There's one opened chest for every two talks (since you have to zone between claiming the reward and retaking the quest). Do this over all active districts at different times of the day to get an average activity level. According my observations, the chest is opened about once every second, which equals about 1 million openings since the event started. If that has produced 100 MPBs the best estimate would then be 1 in 10,000 or if there are 2000 MPBs in the circulation the odds would be 1 in 500. I feel pretty confident with the number of chests opened, so it's your turn to guess how many bears are out there. This is the most robust available method of estimating the MPB drop probability.
Yamagawa
Good point, T-Mack.
Pulling out my bat, time for some ballpark work, and assign some bounds to this problem:
Total minis generated fit into 3 categories:
Sold undedicated.
Dedicated & sold.
Kept.
So, figure bounds on these three figures: Given what most people posting here said about the minis they got, I might put the bounds as:
sold undedicated: 5-30%
Sold dedicated: 10-30%
Kept: 40-85%
So, figure for each ten minis found, 1.5 to 6 get sold. Conversely, each mini sold likely represents ~ 1.5 - 7 minis dropped.
That leaves the million dollar (thousand ecto?) question: How many bears are in the market?
Combine with the expected drops / sale, and compare that against the ~ 1 million opens, and we start to get something like real bounds on the drop rate.
//Yamagawa
Pulling out my bat, time for some ballpark work, and assign some bounds to this problem:
Total minis generated fit into 3 categories:
Sold undedicated.
Dedicated & sold.
Kept.
So, figure bounds on these three figures: Given what most people posting here said about the minis they got, I might put the bounds as:
sold undedicated: 5-30%
Sold dedicated: 10-30%
Kept: 40-85%
So, figure for each ten minis found, 1.5 to 6 get sold. Conversely, each mini sold likely represents ~ 1.5 - 7 minis dropped.
That leaves the million dollar (thousand ecto?) question: How many bears are in the market?
Combine with the expected drops / sale, and compare that against the ~ 1 million opens, and we start to get something like real bounds on the drop rate.
//Yamagawa
texeasons
Not to start an argument or point fingers, but once a second for the chest opening, seems a bit high to me. Whenever I go and talk to the warden there might be 7 people there. And this is in the busy districts and on the weekend. During the non-peak times there might 2-3 people there and that is in districts 1-3. And so far there have been no more than 13 districts total in L.A. So assuming that Kamadan (and yes I have observed about the same there) matches L.A. I still don't see the chest opening once per second. Maybe once every 30 seconds. For instance just as I was typing this there were 4 people at the warden in dis. 2 and 2 at the warden in dis. 1.
??????
take in the people who are already inside, people running 2 accounts , people in diff dists , , it all adds up to a lot
tmakinen
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Originally Posted by texeasons
once a second for the chest opening, seems a bit high to me. Whenever I go and talk to the warden there might be 7 people there. And this is in the busy districts and on the weekend. During the non-peak times there might 2-3 people there and that is in districts 1-3. And so far there have been no more than 13 districts total in L.A. So assuming that Kamadan (and yes I have observed about the same there) matches L.A. I still don't see the chest opening once per second. Maybe once every 30 seconds.
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texeasons
How do you figure one person represents 3 chests per minute? I'm not trying to argue here, I just don't see how that is. It takes 5 minutes with a cupcake and assisting in battle. Not everybody uses a cupcake and not everybody assists in battle. So without a cupcake, and without assisting in battle it takes anywhere from 8-17 min. Yes I have had a 17 min. wait from running to the end, and waiting with no assisting in the battle. This averages 12.5 min. per run without cupcakes or battling yourself. Even with multiple accounts those people aren't averaging 1 per minute themselves (unless there is a ridiculous amount of accounts being run simultaneously). So again I don't see one per second. And just to reassure, I am just trying to figure out how you arrived at one per second. I am an accountant myself and understand numbers and stats, but I don't see how you arrived at one person at the warden represents 3 per minute on the chest. I understand your 60/ (10+10), but just because it takes (and you stated "if it takes") 10 seconds to claim reward and retake quest, does not mean that you divide 60 seconds by the 20 it takes for the quest turn-around to arrive at chests opened per minute. Some people are only doing the quest once, some their first time, others aren't grinding repeatedly quest, turn-around, quest, turn-around. There are breaks involved, starting the quest/turnaround process, and ending the process. There are those that take more time in between quest turn arounds.
CE Devilman
cupcake and GWx ...3.5min
1.start the first runner and taker first wave and kiss the door.
2.start the second runner and taker first wave and kiss the door.
3.first runner clean up CC and chest grap Reward and rezone and start run one more time...wave...door
4. second runner clean up..and so on
hell U dont need to be lvl 20...
so its more like 50-100 runs a day /acc to get a bear
1.start the first runner and taker first wave and kiss the door.
2.start the second runner and taker first wave and kiss the door.
3.first runner clean up CC and chest grap Reward and rezone and start run one more time...wave...door
4. second runner clean up..and so on
hell U dont need to be lvl 20...
so its more like 50-100 runs a day /acc to get a bear
texeasons
Another thought on one chest per second. If the run took an average of 3.5 min. there would have to be 210 people or accounts averaging that time all the time (60 * 3.5= 210). And my point earlier was that I don't see how 210 people or characters or accounts, however you wish to address it, are running this thing at all times. And if there are, I don't think all 210 are averaging 3.5 min/run. And the 3.5min/ run is also using gwx2, which actually makes it 7 min./run 3.5min/chest per person running 2 accounts. Which then doubles the 210 to 420 characters successfully running this quest at all times and averaging 7 min/run on each character.
Yamagawa
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Originally Posted by komma
hmm i expected to see confirmed MPB's here.....must be in the wrong thread....eek.
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The second purpose of the thread is to try and derive the approximate drop rate of the mini, and we've had our share of people who've never taken a statistics course in their life adding in their two bits by stating quite repeatedly that determining the drop rate is impossible.
I'd presently ballpark the drop rate as somewhere between 1:2,500 and 1:20,000.
//Yamagawa
DarklingKiller
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Originally Posted by WhiteWasabi
If I had a polar bear I would keep it quiet and sell it in 3-6 months for triple the going rate.
I did about 400 runs and 0 polar bears. The one I did get I had to buy for a MOUNTAIN of ectos |
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Originally Posted by RTSFirebat
This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.
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Rexion
My theory is a Mini Polar Bear drops in the same manner as you get the Sorcerer's/Philosopher's Stone in Harry Potter
When I think of "use it", I think of not sell it for 2000e. Probably why I won't get one. lol
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Originally Posted by Wikipedia
Dumbledore also explains that the Philosopher's Stone has been destroyed to prevent future attempts by Voldemort to steal it. He then tells Harry that only those who wanted to find the Stone, but not use it would be able to retrieve it from the mirror, which is why Harry was able to retrieve it.
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texeasons
Right there with you Jasmine. I wouldn't sell it if I had a gauranteed payment of 4500 armbraces. I just want one to have. No selling, I just want the cute little fellar.
I pwnd U
Well I'm pretty sure ANet just hates me. 275ish runs and no bear. But my ele had her second birthday present. She got a Mini Prince Rurik first time around, my friend got his monks birthday present and got a purple miniature, don't remember exactly what it was. So I opened mine, got a Harpy Ranger... I already have one of those. <.< *slap* /sigh Some people have all the luck.
daze
well, i dont know how many runs i did, but i did save all my shards and i now have 18 stacks of candy shards. I farmed on 2 accounts with no consumables and i only joined at the end to clear the grench boss. each run took 5-10 minutes per account.
1: Account A, run to end stand at door
2: Account B, run to end stand at door
3: Account A, finish up the boss mob clean up shards and grab chest
4: Account A, Start from step 1
5: Account B, finish up the boss mob clean up shards and grab chest
6: Account B Start from step 2
oh yeah and i did finally find the bear yesterday
, im not sure how many runs it took but if you do some math and take 10 shards as the average gain from one run you can determine how many runs it took. Just remember to cut the final number in half since i was using 2 accounts.
I went ahead and dedicated the bear then i sold it for a meager 5 stacks of ectos. Now the ectos are sitting safely on my separate stand alone GW account.
I never accepted the reward at the end, because when i accepted the reward at the end on my primary character, i was never allowed to repeat the quest.
1: Account A, run to end stand at door
2: Account B, run to end stand at door
3: Account A, finish up the boss mob clean up shards and grab chest
4: Account A, Start from step 1
5: Account B, finish up the boss mob clean up shards and grab chest
6: Account B Start from step 2
oh yeah and i did finally find the bear yesterday
I went ahead and dedicated the bear then i sold it for a meager 5 stacks of ectos. Now the ectos are sitting safely on my separate stand alone GW account.
I never accepted the reward at the end, because when i accepted the reward at the end on my primary character, i was never allowed to repeat the quest.
I pwnd U
I actually figured it out to where its more around 20 shards per run if you accept the reward at the end. oO
Lystra
Updated Successful Run Count: 1404
MPB's 1(run#337)
Also, i finally decided to clock a 24 run set(8 accounts per set). The average time came out to 2.125 min/chest (51 Minutes/24 Chests) This includes startup the time it takes to get the quests and jump into SoS on the initial 4 accounts as well as getting all shards and W-Chests on all instances including the last 4.
I'm gonna keep going on the runs for the same of generating numbers. I will leave it up to the experts(wow, so many here ) to figure out the applications.
Also, soon enough I will start tallying some data together and updating the original post with it so we don't need to scan through the thread looking for info.
MPB's 1(run#337)
Also, i finally decided to clock a 24 run set(8 accounts per set). The average time came out to 2.125 min/chest (51 Minutes/24 Chests) This includes startup the time it takes to get the quests and jump into SoS on the initial 4 accounts as well as getting all shards and W-Chests on all instances including the last 4.
I'm gonna keep going on the runs for the same of generating numbers. I will leave it up to the experts(wow, so many here
) to figure out the applications.Also, soon enough I will start tallying some data together and updating the original post with it so we don't need to scan through the thread looking for info.
Rexion
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Originally Posted by daze
I never accepted the reward at the end, because when i accepted the reward at the end on my primary character, i was never allowed to repeat the quest.
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Noel Hope
863 runs so far.
No miniature polar bear yet ...
No miniature polar bear yet ...
daze
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Originally Posted by Rexion
All you had to do was rezone into another district; then you'd have an extra 5 CCS for all those runs.
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well its kinda late for me to learn something new. sheesh
Feathermoore Rep
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Originally Posted by Noel Hope
863 runs so far.
No miniature polar bear yet ... |
dear god i hope you have been using multiple accounts.
I'm only at ~75 runs on one account. I have 4 alt accts, but none with eotn. That was a GG right there. So i just farm singed skulls during the afk time.
Still wish this wasn't so mindnumblingly boring...
snodaard
do you need Eotn to farm SoS then? :|
ele pl
^Yes, you need, the qeust is in Eotn dungeon.
Namiren
Aprox 100runs, with 1 acc. now i have 2 stack and i shooted about 3stack before. NO BEARS (WHY NOT????)
Aussie Boy
It's too late now but next year Anet should do a really really hard quest across all campaigns ( well maybe not factions) to get one sort of like the Moa chick quest.
That was fun to do and beats all this grind grind grind.
That was fun to do and beats all this grind grind grind.
Painbringer
I lost my bear when after I got the Winterday chest to spawn. Before going to the chest I ran arround to pick up candy canes and for somereason nothing would work to pick them up. Then I got the "You have lost your connection would you like to reconnect". After clicking YES it followed with a .... long pause and then the charcter screen. Well the bear was in that chest I am for sure.
tmakinen
For a positive contribution, if you insist on using the run-length data, I would like to point out that the distribution is of the form (1 - p)^n and that you should use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to gauge the merit of a given p. Also as mentioned before, because lim_{n -> /infty} (1 - 1 / n)^n = 1 / e you need enough samples that are longer than 1/p since about 37% of values in an unbiased sample are larger than that.
Bug John
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Originally Posted by tmakinen
For a positive contribution, if you insist on using the run-length data, I would like to point out that the distribution is of the form (1 - p)^n and that you should use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to gauge the merit of a given p. Also as mentioned before, because lim_{n -> /infty} (1 - 1 / n)^n = 1 / e you need enough samples that are longer than 1/p since about 37% of values in an unbiased sample are larger than that.
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Namiren
130+ runs stil no polar ... i want my obsidian armor!!!
Sir Skullcrasher
Makes you wonder if A-Net will give us something similar to the mini polar bear on our 4th years birthday presents? We already got the black beast of Aaarrrggghhhh when they gave out the mini grease lightning as tournament prize.
Sir Skullcrasher
Good news about these runs is that I'm average about 10 CCS per runs. If I do like 20 runs a day... that will net me around 200+ shards almost to a full stack. Hopefully those are selling well per stacks.
Rexion
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Originally Posted by Sir Skullcrasher
Good news about these runs is that I'm average about 10 CCS per runs. If I do like 20 runs a day... that will net me around 200+ shards almost to a full stack. Hopefully those are selling well per stacks.
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??iljo
6 stacks of presents and atleast 500+ runs and still nothing
lobo fett
As posted earlier I got a mini, after about 25 runs, I was ccs farming. thinking a pb would be nice, but thats not why i was doing it.
I just want to add my thoughts
I did around 20 strength runs in la, then got bored and went to kamadan did about 3 strength, and decided to give straight a shot, thought it was great the return on ccs, but took a little more time and waiting for life regen. So back to strength for next one and got the pb.
One thing though i would like to add, is i was killing everything, to get more shards. I wasnt running through.
well now my goal has changed, im trying to get a stack of each christmas item without cashing in ccs. but im running through now to the final door where chest spawns. 10 stacks of ccs, and havent reached 250 on even fruitcake yet, and getting no polar bear either. another annoyance is yuletide tonic barely drops at all either, think i have got 2 in all the runs.
My thoughts are the game might just know what yr up to if yr running through, which is my guess for most of the grinders.
Would i want another pb??? no way, see i told a cpl ppl, and the msg got to more and more people, now i get begged for gold at least 5 times a day. I pretend to be offline. I know this will go away soon, and cant wait!!!
I just want to add my thoughts
I did around 20 strength runs in la, then got bored and went to kamadan did about 3 strength, and decided to give straight a shot, thought it was great the return on ccs, but took a little more time and waiting for life regen. So back to strength for next one and got the pb.
One thing though i would like to add, is i was killing everything, to get more shards. I wasnt running through.
well now my goal has changed, im trying to get a stack of each christmas item without cashing in ccs. but im running through now to the final door where chest spawns. 10 stacks of ccs, and havent reached 250 on even fruitcake yet, and getting no polar bear either. another annoyance is yuletide tonic barely drops at all either, think i have got 2 in all the runs.
My thoughts are the game might just know what yr up to if yr running through, which is my guess for most of the grinders.
Would i want another pb??? no way, see i told a cpl ppl, and the msg got to more and more people, now i get begged for gold at least 5 times a day. I pretend to be offline. I know this will go away soon, and cant wait!!!
Day Trooper
300+ runs here and - yooooouuuu guessed it!!
NO BEAR
Anyways, just thought I'd inject a little 'bad humor' to uplift the spirits of those still trying to get the little fella
'Just grin and bear it folks.'
'This quest is frickin' unbearable.'
'I recently heard Polar Bears were put on the endangered species list. If the drop rate of MPBs in GW is any indication - they're already extinct'
And finally....
Conversation recently heard in LA:
Q: "Hey - how's that SoS quest going?"
A: "Still SoL!!!"
-DT
NO BEAR
Anyways, just thought I'd inject a little 'bad humor' to uplift the spirits of those still trying to get the little fella
'Just grin and bear it folks.'
'This quest is frickin' unbearable.'
'I recently heard Polar Bears were put on the endangered species list. If the drop rate of MPBs in GW is any indication - they're already extinct
'And finally....
Conversation recently heard in LA:
Q: "Hey - how's that SoS quest going?"
A: "Still SoL!!!"
-DT
KZaske
9 stacks of ccs, 2 stacks of spiked eggnogs... 345 runs - no pb.
Sparda
Coming around 570 till 580 runs.
Been busy for 72 hours since it started.
No MPB
I'm a big fool that i even go on and tried.
Been busy for 72 hours since it started.
No MPB
I'm a big fool that i even go on and tried.
Sir Skullcrasher
Anyone had any luck within their first 50 runs to get a MPB?