My runs take 5 minutes no cons. On my 162th run, on my monk. Yes I counted and No Bear.
http://i41.tinypic.com/2iglv0w.jpg
I just run past each group or single popup by running side to side dodging the snow balls (2 minutes). When I get to the waves of grentches I keep casting Ice Breaker on freezie and when they all die I put on ice fort and chill waiting for team to spawn.(3-4 minutes) (Hint Hint-Bring a 20% enchant weapon and half skill recharge of skills 20%)
Mod edit: Please keep image size down, or just post links
Confirmed Mini Polar Bears
weemanpow3
thor hammerbane
I've done about..50 runs or so, no bear.
Showed my guildie how to do it, bear on first run.
Other guildie also got a q9 fire bds on the same SoO run as me
Showed my guildie how to do it, bear on first run.
Other guildie also got a q9 fire bds on the same SoO run as me
KamikazeChicken
Over 300 and no bear. >.>
I pwnd U
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thor hammerbane
I've done about..50 runs or so, no bear.
Showed my guildie how to do it, bear on first run. Other guildie also got a q9 fire bds on the same SoO run as me |
(Right, BDS from another thread meant Bone Dragon Staff) oO
On a happier note. Atleast 200 runs down, and no MPB.
Martin Alvito
The quoted drop rate of 1/500 is ludicrous.
Assume for the moment that 500 people enter the quest every minute (and succeed at a later time).
The implication of the above drop rate is that one drops about every minute.
If you think that 1440 miniature polar bears are being created every day given the lack of threads in High End and lack of sellers in-game, you're nuts.
Even if only 50 people enter the quest in each minute, that's still 144 per day.
The drop rate is clearly far, far, far worse than 1/500.
Assume for the moment that 500 people enter the quest every minute (and succeed at a later time).
The implication of the above drop rate is that one drops about every minute.
If you think that 1440 miniature polar bears are being created every day given the lack of threads in High End and lack of sellers in-game, you're nuts.
Even if only 50 people enter the quest in each minute, that's still 144 per day.
The drop rate is clearly far, far, far worse than 1/500.
Lystra
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Martin Alvito
The quoted drop rate of 1/500 is ludicrous.
Assume for the moment that 500 people enter the quest every minute (and succeed at a later time). The implication of the above drop rate is that one drops about every minute. If you think that 1440 miniature polar bears are being created every day given the lack of threads in High End and lack of sellers in-game, you're nuts. Even if only 50 people enter the quest in each minute, that's still 144 per day. The drop rate is clearly far, far, far worse than 1/500. |
Quote:
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Originally Posted by shoyon456
I don't see why everyone spends their time farming that dam quest. I get obsessive, but over a mini polar bear that you have ~.01-.02% chance to get? A polar bear that ppl are farming with multiple accounts and undoubtedly botting? A polar bear that those who have reported getting have done upwards of 300 runs to get at what 8 mins each, taking an average of 40 hrs? It wouldn't be so bad if there weren't other things to do this holiday season, but seriously...
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(botting? rofl!)Quote:
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Originally Posted by JustJasmine
Thanks! me and my little Ele will keep at it! I didn't keep track of how many times I did the run on my 24 hour OCD marathon but since then I have done it 112 times, no MPB to be seen. The way I figure it though I have a couple things on my "Wish List" like a perfect Astral Staff which I should be able to afford once I sell all these Wintersday goodies! So yay for me I will at least get SOMETHING on my wish list even if its not a MPB!
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On a different topic..my successful run count is now and even 1000.
A breakdown of the last 491 runs is:
21 Stacks of Candy Cane Shards
491 Summoners
574 Spiked Eggnogs
565 Wintergreens
86 Rainbow CC's
85 Eggnog
70 Peppermint CC's
21 Tonics
..which is all gonna be sold for around 1 million plat(not including the candy canes and tonics). Anyone else think this run still isn't worth it? Also, don't forget, that for 491 runs. I already sold the drops from the first 509. So 2 million plat is nice plus I got a cuddly little bear too, and for FREE!
texeasons
Another 40-50 runs today, no Polar Bear.
texeasons
By the way, Jasmine: Thanks for clarifying that some of us enjoy doing this and we are still getting items that others are getting, plus a lot more shards for gifts. Cause personally the shards aren't dropping for me from the monsters I kill. I've gotten a few, but not near the amount from the runs. I have over 10 stacks of shards, probably close to 12 stacks, sure it's not that many, but I have been doing other things like skill capping too. I do some runs, sure it gets repetitive, and then I go get some elite skills, come back and do some more runs. I too am working on sweet tooth and party titles, not to keen on the drunkard title, so that just means more money (or trading items for sweets and party items) for me. And if others don't want to use their time doing runs for a chance at an awesome mini, that's their deal. And continuing these runs is our deal ("our" being those of us that continue). Sorry to be off topic and that I don't have exact chest rewards data, but as mentioned before they are a little scewed from skill capping and delivering presents to scrappy (only if they spawn next to me as I spawn from coming back from a run).
JustJasmine
Quote:
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Originally Posted by texeasons
By the way, Jasmine: Thanks for clarifying that some of us enjoy doing this and we are still getting items that others are getting, plus a lot more shards for gifts... .
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Minami
Well, umm, I have about 10 stacks of cc shards out of that quest alone (also more than one stack of snowman summoners, same with fruitcakes, etc.), no bear though.
I have tried reasoning with the chest, told him how badly I wanted one and that it was my bday on the 21st (he didn't care, lol), took out my minis, scared it, shook my fist at it, played flute for the bear to come out and follow me like the piper, sadly, none of those things worked.
I will continue trying to entice the little cutie out of that chest, and when I'm done with the quests (the last minute of wintersday, probably
), I'll post what I have gotten out of all those runs. And hopefully I get to include a Mini Polar Bear in my list.
Good luck to everyone who's been farming their hearts out!
I have tried reasoning with the chest, told him how badly I wanted one and that it was my bday on the 21st (he didn't care, lol), took out my minis, scared it, shook my fist at it, played flute for the bear to come out and follow me like the piper, sadly, none of those things worked.
I will continue trying to entice the little cutie out of that chest, and when I'm done with the quests (the last minute of wintersday, probably
Good luck to everyone who's been farming their hearts out!
Wish Swiftdeath
well i've done over 300 runs and i've almost got my chaos gloves from selling the consumables so go figure
well worth it
well worth it
KiyaKoreena
Some of us need all the hope we can get.
27 stacks of CCS now.... no bear. Still trying.
27 stacks of CCS now.... no bear. Still trying.
Aussie Boy
Still no Bear for me after hundreds of run but am not giving up just yet
I still have hope.
One thing that does raise a question in me and sorry to go off topic to the actual purpose of this thread But
With all the CCS being farmed thats a lot that is now in the game stacks and stacks that people have and are not cashing in. "Puts hand up"
Remember when they did the pigs there were so many of them around that they decided to cut
some out of circulation and you traded 5 pigs for a celestial pig.
What IF they did the same thing this time around realized there mistake and you could trade i dunno
1000 2000 CCS for a bear?
Just something i was thinking of and prolly wrong about anyway. lol
I still have hope.
One thing that does raise a question in me and sorry to go off topic to the actual purpose of this thread But
With all the CCS being farmed thats a lot that is now in the game stacks and stacks that people have and are not cashing in. "Puts hand up"
Remember when they did the pigs there were so many of them around that they decided to cut
some out of circulation and you traded 5 pigs for a celestial pig.
What IF they did the same thing this time around realized there mistake and you could trade i dunno
1000 2000 CCS for a bear?
Just something i was thinking of and prolly wrong about anyway. lol
KamikazeChicken
We've had 3 drop in our alliance, all to people who only did about 200 runs each. >:|
Chestnut
I have done, and this is no bull here.. I have been keeping a watchful eye on my runs...
I have done yesterday (when I started) 165 runs. = no Bear
--6 hour sleep brake--
I have done today 119 runs this far = no Bear.
I have taken two brakes, and I've got it down to 3 minutes per chest open on average... using This method..
It does work, my computer is a monster so I can run all 5, There are some deaths from time to time from accidents but overall I'm getting like 1 chest ~ every 3.02 minutes or so.
mostly I control two at once, idle them, go with the other 2, and run the 5th somewhere in there depending on whats going on with the other 4.
However, I am almost 100% Sure now that a.net will not let the bear drop if they see 5x+ accounts on the same IP address.
However, I'm <..> close to giving up, I ran the damn thing with ONE account over 600 times last year with no luck.
The drop rate, if its based on a roll, is very low (perhaps 1 in 2000 or something. I have no deal idea) but I'm guessing that if ANY other factors are in the drop rate (Ie if Freezie dies and you get a moral boost) or something really annoying like that, Then then I'm more likely to win the lottery. The REAL lottery.
However, I wish all of you other people good luck. I am using one account that is sub level 20 because its the only char on that account, however no dice.. seems that the level has nothing to do with it.
I have done yesterday (when I started) 165 runs. = no Bear
--6 hour sleep brake--
I have done today 119 runs this far = no Bear.
I have taken two brakes, and I've got it down to 3 minutes per chest open on average... using This method..
It does work, my computer is a monster so I can run all 5, There are some deaths from time to time from accidents but overall I'm getting like 1 chest ~ every 3.02 minutes or so.
mostly I control two at once, idle them, go with the other 2, and run the 5th somewhere in there depending on whats going on with the other 4.
However, I am almost 100% Sure now that a.net will not let the bear drop if they see 5x+ accounts on the same IP address.
However, I'm <..> close to giving up, I ran the damn thing with ONE account over 600 times last year with no luck.
The drop rate, if its based on a roll, is very low (perhaps 1 in 2000 or something. I have no deal idea) but I'm guessing that if ANY other factors are in the drop rate (Ie if Freezie dies and you get a moral boost) or something really annoying like that, Then then I'm more likely to win the lottery. The REAL lottery.
However, I wish all of you other people good luck. I am using one account that is sub level 20 because its the only char on that account, however no dice.. seems that the level has nothing to do with it.
aptco09
Ok I'm farming shards. So about 100 successful run so far and no bear..
Although not my primary purpose, it would be a nice bonus ..
Congrats on those who go one and good luck to those who are actively farming for it.
Although not my primary purpose, it would be a nice bonus ..
Congrats on those who go one and good luck to those who are actively farming for it.
JustJasmine
Is it just me or is it like absolutely ridiculous how far those Grenches can throw a snowball at you from? I always thought that enemies basically needed to be within your aggro bubble to hit you from range? I'd really like to know how those pop up Grenches can manage to hit me with a snowball with they are like 2-3 aggro bubble lengths behind me. Sorry for the random rant but it's been annoying me all night!
Horace Slughorn
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JustJasmine
Is it just me or is it like absolutely ridiculous how far those Grenches can throw a snowball at you from? I always thought that enemies basically needed to be within your aggro bubble to hit you from range? I'd really like to know how those pop up Grenches can manage to hit me with a snowball with they are like 2-3 aggro bubble lengths behind me. Sorry for the random rant but it's been annoying me all night!
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On topic: I levelled up my new mesmer Hermione to 10, it took 33 runs, and no more bears
JustJasmine
Well my count as of right now is 225 Chests = No MPB in sight.
Now that is not counting the first 24 hours that I did this when I did not keep track of my runs. I estimate that I probably did 100 runs or so in that first 24 hours without sleep! But that is just a guess. So I am assuming my overall count is 325 Chests = Lots of Wintersday items!
BTW can anyone list what the "Going Rates" are for Wintersday Items? I'm trying to figure out about how much my loot is worth. I was thinking...
Fruitcake - 100ea
Snowman Summoners - 200ea
Eggnog - 100ea
Spiked Eggnog - 300ea
Yuletide Tonics - 400ea
Wintergreen Candy Canes - 200ea
Peppermint Candy Canes - 500ea
Rainbow Candy Canes - 750ea
Does that seem about right?
Now that is not counting the first 24 hours that I did this when I did not keep track of my runs. I estimate that I probably did 100 runs or so in that first 24 hours without sleep! But that is just a guess. So I am assuming my overall count is 325 Chests = Lots of Wintersday items!
BTW can anyone list what the "Going Rates" are for Wintersday Items? I'm trying to figure out about how much my loot is worth. I was thinking...
Fruitcake - 100ea
Snowman Summoners - 200ea
Eggnog - 100ea
Spiked Eggnog - 300ea
Yuletide Tonics - 400ea
Wintergreen Candy Canes - 200ea
Peppermint Candy Canes - 500ea
Rainbow Candy Canes - 750ea
Does that seem about right?
TheHaxor
the droprate is 0/200
that is my success rate thus far
that is my success rate thus far
JustJasmine
I'm curious why GW won't give an actual drop rate on the MPB. I have seen Gaile and Regina asked repeatedly on several venues if they could give the actual drop rate and neither of them have ever answered.
ragweedultra
About 75 runs, and no MPB. Seeing all the stats from uberleet"pro"(nerd)s running 24 accounts at a time has made me decide to give up entirely.
Do people really use cupcakes for this? O.O
This thread is hilarious to read.
Do people really use cupcakes for this? O.O
This thread is hilarious to read.
JustJasmine
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ragweedultra
About 75 runs, and no MPB. Seeing all the stats from uberleet"pro"(nerd)s running 24 accounts at a time has made me decide to give up entirely.
Do people really use cupcakes for this? O.O This thread is hilarious to read. |
As of tonight I now have 3397 Minutes towards my drunk title and 2643 minutes towards my Sweet Tooth title and still a week to go! Woot!
stretchs
I have done approximately 100 runs, each time I go in, I used a Candy Apple, a Slice of Pumpkin Pie, and a Pumpkin Cookie. Not because I needed to, but it was an easy way to work on my sweet tooth title, once I got to the doors, i worked on my drunkard. After completion, I would use a fruitcake and a tonic so that I was multi tasking my farming
JustJasmine
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ragweedultra
Wait... But you only run one account? o.0
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And me talking this much is what happens when I'm doing a quest that has me sitting here waiting for snowman to kill Grenches! LOL!
thor hammerbane
Another guildie of mine looted a bear, that makes two bears in two days for a relatively small guild of 25 or so members :P
First guildie-got on first run
second guildie-said he did around 25-35
First guildie-got on first run
second guildie-said he did around 25-35
Khazad Guard
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ragweedultra
Do people really use cupcakes for this? O.O
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-Enter dungeon and use a Birthday Cupcake, Slice of Pumpkin Pie (have several stacks in storage), Spiked Eggnog and Transmog. Tonic (have a heap from Halloween)
-Run to the end, drink two Eggnogs (or other Lvl 1 beverages)
-AFK for a bit
-Come back and kill the little Grentches (best was 5 mins... .75s Snowballs ftw)
-Collect the Shards, open chest, collect drops and map travel back to Kamadan
-Use a Fruitcake to get reward from Rift Warden, travel to another district
-Use a Fruitcake to take quest from Rift Warden, repeat!
Of course I sometimes use a tonic when taking reward, or retaking quest. It's just an easy way to use them and it actually contributes to making the quest more efficient.
Feathermoore Rep
This thread is epic i swear....
Yes no real statistically accurate data will be generated by this thread for all the previous reasons stated and others that haven't been stated. If you don't know, please wait till you take statistics in high school/college or go read a few lessons online about it to refresh your memory.
That said, If you do a study on your local college campus with 1000 random students out of a campus that say has 25k students, will you generate any relevant data about the campus as a whole? No. Does that mean your data is useless then? No.
The data is still useful, but just not as an accurate means to describe 100% of the student body. Same pertains to the drop rate. Data is data. You can still use it to provide a estimated range for the drop. However the data that really needs to be collected are sucessfull drops.
If 10 people report in that they got an MPB, with the following runs:
40,602,234,408,10,502,1452,1285,342,740. The data is small but it still give you an estimate. For all intents and purposes you can throw out the 10, 40, 1285, 1452 stats as extreme outliers. This leaves you with a range from 234-740 with an average of....~472 runs. Now to me this is relevant data. This tells me i should expect to do at least 500 runs in order to guarantee that i get an MPB. And that there is a possiblity that i will not get the MPB even in that amount of runs.
Now does that mean that the drop rate is approximately 1/500 runs. Not necessarily but i wouldn't say that the drop rate is more than 1/2000. Sure its statistically and randomly possible that the drop rate is 1/2000 or higher and every person who got one did it in way less than estimated run rate, but probability tells us that its mostly not the case.
I'd venture to say that 1/500 is probably a good guess, but i wouldn't be surprised if it was higher around 1/1000 runs.
So for general purposes and knowledge, I'd say this thread is worth its value even if most of the posts are another xxx runs and no MPB. Those few posts of xxx runs and got my MPB do hold some value.
Yes no real statistically accurate data will be generated by this thread for all the previous reasons stated and others that haven't been stated. If you don't know, please wait till you take statistics in high school/college or go read a few lessons online about it to refresh your memory.
That said, If you do a study on your local college campus with 1000 random students out of a campus that say has 25k students, will you generate any relevant data about the campus as a whole? No. Does that mean your data is useless then? No.
The data is still useful, but just not as an accurate means to describe 100% of the student body. Same pertains to the drop rate. Data is data. You can still use it to provide a estimated range for the drop. However the data that really needs to be collected are sucessfull drops.
If 10 people report in that they got an MPB, with the following runs:
40,602,234,408,10,502,1452,1285,342,740. The data is small but it still give you an estimate. For all intents and purposes you can throw out the 10, 40, 1285, 1452 stats as extreme outliers. This leaves you with a range from 234-740 with an average of....~472 runs. Now to me this is relevant data. This tells me i should expect to do at least 500 runs in order to guarantee that i get an MPB. And that there is a possiblity that i will not get the MPB even in that amount of runs.
Now does that mean that the drop rate is approximately 1/500 runs. Not necessarily but i wouldn't say that the drop rate is more than 1/2000. Sure its statistically and randomly possible that the drop rate is 1/2000 or higher and every person who got one did it in way less than estimated run rate, but probability tells us that its mostly not the case.
I'd venture to say that 1/500 is probably a good guess, but i wouldn't be surprised if it was higher around 1/1000 runs.
So for general purposes and knowledge, I'd say this thread is worth its value even if most of the posts are another xxx runs and no MPB. Those few posts of xxx runs and got my MPB do hold some value.
snodaard
can you get tonics from the chest? ^^
Well I did like 40 runs now and I can't realy imagine why you guys can ever do the quest over and over for sometimes more then 1000 runs O.o could be my point but wtf-.-
Well I did like 40 runs now and I can't realy imagine why you guys can ever do the quest over and over for sometimes more then 1000 runs O.o could be my point but wtf-.-
JustJasmine
Quote:
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Originally Posted by snodaard
can you get tonics from the chest? ^^-
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TheHaxor
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Yamagawa
Must be fun, being a destroyer of other peoples ideas. Have you ever considered having any of your own, or do you fear that someone might reject your own ideas?
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Minami
I sent u a PM Jasmine
As for the farming, done about 300 runs so far. Tons of cc shards ftw
But I soooo want the little cutie bear! ^_^
Keeping my cc shards for now just in case Anet pulls a mini pig stunt and u can exchange 2000 cc shards for 1 bear ^_^
As for the farming, done about 300 runs so far. Tons of cc shards ftw
But I soooo want the little cutie bear! ^_^
Keeping my cc shards for now just in case Anet pulls a mini pig stunt and u can exchange 2000 cc shards for 1 bear ^_^
Zomeone
Hi guys and chicks,
Thought i'd participate in this conversation. I did over 100 runs to get a miniature polar bear, frustrating... And i finally realized that it's not worth it, i don't care even if it's the rarest mini in the game, it's still virtual item. So, i made myself a REAL polar bear minipet, i posted the photo here. I'm actually proud of myself, took 3 hours to make and it's more real than the virtual minipet... lol
Thought i'd participate in this conversation. I did over 100 runs to get a miniature polar bear, frustrating... And i finally realized that it's not worth it, i don't care even if it's the rarest mini in the game, it's still virtual item. So, i made myself a REAL polar bear minipet, i posted the photo here. I'm actually proud of myself, took 3 hours to make and it's more real than the virtual minipet... lol
makosi
That's cool, Zomeone. You left out the polar bear's neckerchief and bell though!
Now where did i leave my collage & crafts stuff? I'm at the desperation stage of polar farming too.
Now where did i leave my collage & crafts stuff? I'm at the desperation stage of polar farming too.
Lystra
Zomeone...that's awesome lol. I'm voting it for thread mascot
Get a scarf and bell on it and give us a higher res image please
Get a scarf and bell on it and give us a higher res image please
End All
Hey guys!
Been trolling this thread for a while, finally figured I'd comment. Just giving statistics here, not deviating into the debate.
185 runs = no magical, golden letters yet. I'll post updates as I go.
Good luck, and happy gaming, regardless (=
Been trolling this thread for a while, finally figured I'd comment. Just giving statistics here, not deviating into the debate.
185 runs = no magical, golden letters yet. I'll post updates as I go.
Good luck, and happy gaming, regardless (=
Rexion
Zomeone's MPB is worth S/B 5000e!!!
i'll take
*just kidding*
I'm starting to do the runs cause I want the drops, I really won't be upset if a MPB doesn't drop.
i'll take
*just kidding*
I'm starting to do the runs cause I want the drops, I really won't be upset if a MPB doesn't drop.
JSpayde
I quit polar bear farming after a guild mate of mine got it in one (out of one run total), sold the damn mini, and started gloating to me at 8am about how much ecto he made and how he beat Guild Wars. He doesn't even like GW and he gets the effing polar bear.
Screw you ANET.
Screw you ANET.
Dante the Warlord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Yamagawa
Lets give two scenarios:
1) drop rate of 1/500: 10 people who get the mini report they got it after 40,602,234,408,10,502,1452,1285,342, and 740 runs. Several other also tried to get the mini and failed. 2) Drop rate of 1/10,000: 10 people who get the mini report they got it after 40,602,234,408,10,502,1452,1285,342, and 740 runs. Thousands of others never got a mini. What you'll really be looking at is some people had time for 40 runs. Some had time for 234 runs. Some had time for 1452 runs. On average, people getting the minis had time for xxx runs. What's going to be really different is the double-drop rate for those who are getting the mini. The odds of getting 1 mini in n runs is 1 - (1-drop rate)^runs. The odds of getting two minis in the same number of runs is going to be roughly (if my math holds out): (1 - (1 - drop rate) ^ runs) ^ 2 At 1:500, 40.0% of the people who get in 500 runs get 2 minis. (2:5) At 1:2000, 4.9% of the people who get in 500 runs get 2 minis. (1:20) At 1:10000, 0.24% of the people who get in 500 runs get 2 minis. (1:420) At 1:100000, 0.0025% of the people who get in 500 runs get 2 minis. (1:40199) I'm inclined to say that 1:2000 may be low, or 1 in 20 people who do 500 runs would already have 2 minis. I'm also inclined to think (given that a number of people who say 'so-n-so got it on his first/third/seventh run') that we might possibly be looking at a different sort of drop rate mechanic than a flat 1:n ratio, but possibly a diminishing returns system. If Arena-net is normally kosher with giving out drop rates (I don't know, I've never asked them, and rarely dig through the detail they do make available), but were unusual in declining in this instance, it might be that they don't want this being farmed and have given it something other than the traditional 1:n drop ratio. Making the actual mechanics known or knowable would enable farmers to get a hold of the mini, defeating the purpose of the effort put in to provide a different drop-rate. Arena Net has used diminishing returns before, for the nightfall green armors, for the gold/grape ratio from chests, gold item drop rate while farming, etc... It may be that the mini in this instance is another return that diminishes over time. I might suggest we have some of our more ahem, energetic, farmers who got one mini already switch to doing the runs with some other characters, as it can be demonstrated that many of the diminishing returns ArenaNet implements are character based, not account based. No reason to expect this is what's going on here, but if switching characters is followed shortly after by 2-3 people with double minis, it would be a significant data item. If people switch and still don't get double minis, it's still an important data item. //Yamagawa |
I pwnd U
Somewhere around 215-220 runs now, no Mini Polar Bear.