15 Jun 2009 at 18:41 - 67
guild wars is still alive, nothing has killed it, but...
pugs killed pugs - simple as that. people got tired of failing because of one or more awful players on their team and opted for henchmen long before heroes even existed. and now with the /report feature, you can't even tell someone their build is bad without them reporting you like a toddler having a tantrum. pugs died mostly because of human fails, ie. personality defects, lack of skill/knowledge of game mechanics, afk's, and leechers.
just because outposts are empty doesn't mean the game is dead. let's face the obvious...the game is 4 years old. not only is the player base is spread out across multiple campaigns, most people have played all the missions by now (likely several times over) and aren't going to repeat them without good reason (ie. zquest, new character, friend/guildie needs help). there's nobody to pug with because everyone's already done everything and has likely moved on to farming or title hunting or pvp. elite areas of the game, however, are very active pug zones due to the efficiency of pve-only skills, and they are still kind of fresh, fun, and offer nice prizes.
just an imo...playing alone is good for the game. it gives people the opportunity to learn how to play without getting ragged on or given bad advice. learning from your mistakes, thinking for yourself, and pulling your own weight are good things and will better prepare you for elite mission pugs or pvp or other places where skill and knowledge is more important. if people carry you on their backs the whole way...what have you really learned? what contributions can you really offer a team? squat.
as far as i'm concerned, heroes are the best thing that ever happened to pve, period. i'd use 7 of them if i could. i'm not going to stand around in a mission outpost for an hour trying to find a group that is going to fail 5x and frustrate me into signing off. games are supposed to be enjoyable, and that is far, far, far from my anyone's idea of fun. i would have quit pve entirely a long time ago if it weren't for heroes.
heroes have nearly killed pvp, however. as much as i like the option of tossing in a hero when a guildie has to go to bed but the rest of the guild still wants to gvg, heroes aren't generally used for this - they are used in degenerative builds where their ai can be abused. how many mesmers do you know that can pleak 1/4 cast spells, on purpose, consistently? nobody, but gwen can! how many monks remove blind from you before you can even swing your weapon again, on purpose, consistently? none, but tahlkora can! heroes are really bad at pvp for the most part (ie. they try to cast with a ranger/mesmer in their face, eat bulls like its chocolate cake, cast through shames and diversions, get stuck on things when they base, etc), but the things they are good at removes player skill from the match, and in pvp...player skill should matter. pvp is player vs player after all, and i really think the heroes need to be removed from gvg and ha once and for all.
skill balances, generally, haven't done pvp any favors either. sometimes they're good, but most of the time they're "meh" or "wtf?!??!?". calling them "skill balances" is a joke really, all they really are is forced meta shifts. people get tired of playing the same old builds and the shifts add a level of freshness to the game every now and then - for better or for worse. it doesn't matter what they do...a chunk of players is going to ragequit after every shift if they don't like the new meta. (the vod changes certainly didn't help either.) these things have led to the steady decline of gvg guilds. you know if you can go 3-3 in the mAT and get a bronze trim, something is very, very wrong!
anet would be wise to create a meta that allows for a variety of successful builds instead of just a handful. knee-jerk nerfs to powerful skills isn't the solution, and neither is buffing random skills just for the lolz. thinking ahead and planning a variable meta is what needs to happen, though i fear it is too little, too late, and only wishful thinking.
tl;dr - guild wars isn't dead, pugs killed pugs, and heroes and meta shifts killed pvp.