Zaishen Service The Biggest Scam of GW?

Someone needs to go back to school. Just because you got lucky 1 time doesnt mean many other people have, My math results do not lie. If you cannot accept the fact that the odds of winning do not meet with the amount of money you are likely to put into it then there is nothing more I can do to help you. Just remeber I was trying to be on your side, so flame me because you got lucky. w/e

You seem to believe people intend to make more money then they put in. I am 100% sure that anyone with even a hazy idea of what the ZChest spits out would know they will never make there money back at current ZKey prices. But yet plenty of people use the chest because IT IS A GAMBLE AND THEY DONT HAVE ANYTHING BETTER TO WASTE THERE MONEY ON. There are people that dont care about titles and dont really care about money. They do however enjoy the gamble like me. I use my 100k worth of keys every month for what I KNOW will be 10k worth of drops maybe more if I get lucky, plus a few more points to a title I don't plan to max or even get remotely high because I enjoy the gamble. Now for the people that have all they really need. Get there 100k worth of ZKeys and do what according to you? Waste half there potential drops? I agree with WhiteWasabi that you are just trying to protect your little title/are angry you wasted double the money you had to. Go cry to someone who cares because as far as I can tell not a single poster here does.

EDIT: I thought it over and I agree with you! The poor people offering the service are be scammed by the bastards abusing it! I mean they are getting no drops and making no money!@!!!!!

you are assuming these clients really care anything about the zaishen title. I'm sorry, but quite a few people could really care less about it. If it's worthless, then the client comes out ahead because the alternative would be to use 1 key and get less back than having someone else use 1 key. In this case they get 2 creme brulees instead of 1. You should really be trying to convince people to not use the z-keys on the chest period, as regardless of how they are used, you yourself pointed out it's a losing situation.

You are assuming the zaishen title is actually worth something because you are a rank 10 and value it yourself. Not everyone shares your opinion.

If they are disappointed that 1 z-key gives them crap, then after 1000 z-keys they are probably going to feel worse than if they had gotten 1000 drops via 500 z-keys (the other 500 being the person that actually cares about getting the title).

As such, anyone determined to try and farm the z-chest that does not care about the zaishen title is actually better off using the service since they will get twice the drops for the same amount of money. Your argument really only means something if they really do care about the title, in which case yes they are cheating themselves out of that title by giving it to someone else. I suspect they arent though.

The problm you express isn't with the service, it's with the losing situation (lootwise) by using z-keys. It really does sound like you're upset other people are getting the title without paying as much as you did since people that care nothing about the title can only benefit by using the service and doubling their creme brulee drops.

Errr... it's a balance. Just like selling a rune to a person instead of to the trader. You get more from the person than you would from the trader and they get the rune cheaper from you than they would from the trader.

Everyone knows the Zaishen chest is a dirty hooker that spits out utter garbage 95% of the time. Having someone open it for you doesn't negate this. You are using keys, either directly or indirectly, and this is a gamble. It's less of a gamble since the service provider is giving you additional chances by using their own keys.

I didn't bother to read this thread as I'm sure most people who have a clue came to the same conclusion.

your logic is flawed, you assume the only 2 options for Z Keys is to:
A:use them
B service them

have you considered just selling them? sell 1 key and you can have 13 cremes + change zomg deal ding dong!

what I said only applies to people that are determined to farm the chest. If they are determined to farm the chest then they are not going to sell their z-keys to other people regardless.

Again, your argument is about the chest itself, not the service. The service shouldn't stop someone from selling the keys. If someone is not aware of the drop rate, the very act of using the z-keys to get rich is bad.

using the service or using your keys makes no difference if you're in it to get non-chest loot. You should be convincing people to not use their z-keys on the chest, whether through a service or alone. Your argument makes it sound like you were rather have people use their keys on the chest alone than use a service, which is the worse of the two options.

Selling the keys to other players trumps both options. That has nothing to do with whether they use a service- that has to do with convincing players not to use the z-chest period.

EDIT: I don't think my logic is flawed. I think your understanding is flawed. You really should be crusading against using the z-keys period and convincing people that don't care about the title to sell the z-keys to people that do care about the title. Convincing people to not use the service while not convincing them to avoid the chest is what is flawed, since they will be worse off loot-wise by soloing the chest instead of doubling their loot by using a service - both of which are probably less lucrative than if you convinced them to not use the chest at all.

Have you considered that?

If you use them, you get title points and drop chances. If you service them, you don't get title points but get either cheaper opens or more opens of the chest. That's why it's a SERVICE, not a GIVEAWAY. It's MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL.

Your math proves nothing.

1) The drop rates on rare stuff are SO bad that there's no way you can infer the actual drop rates from the use of 7500 keys. We'd need to have a good sense of what the real drop rates on rare stuff really are to be able to have a good estimate of the value of a zkey. Small permutations of those drop rates have big effects on the estimate.

I'll leave it to a real statistician to tell us what we can really infer from your data (ie: some idea of the confidence interval around your data point). I work with statistics regularly, so I can run a quick estimate and conclude that we don't know what you think you know, but I've forgotten the precise calculations and don't feel like looking them up.

2) Even if we could conclusively prove that a zkey drops 1/3 its own value on average, that doesn't mean that the seller of Zaishen services should have to return the drops of two keys in order to borrow one from another player. Some people just like lotteries, and may be perfectly willing to trade at 1:1, even if they knew that they were losing money in the long run. You have implicitly assumed that the "fair" value of Zaishen services is the risk neutral price...and that is simply not true. The "fair" value of the service is what the market will bear. There are numerous other lotteries that players have been willing to overpay for in-game. The Coffer of Whispers is a great example.

In short, you're just wrong. Quit bawling like a baby because you spent your own zkeys for fewer points than you could have gotten. Go sell a mini or make some trades, buy some keys and run your own Zaishen service.

The GW economy is a world without intellectual property rights or copyrights. Someone else has a good idea? Steal it. Don't whine about it.

Since 1 Z Drop is worth, for all intensive purposes 1k (since each drop gives you 25% back what you invested, according to the drop rate over time) By using this service you pay 1 key (4k) for 2 1k's. you have to have an IQ under 100 to think the client is being benefited.

I'm pretty sure most of you disagree with me because you disagree with my claim of it being a scam. Not because you think it's actually a good service. You can't both claim to be smarter than me and use the Z Service. imo.

As I said I have more than enough to throw away and service my way to z12. I choose not to.

Clients consider yourself warned!

then why are you wasting time trying to convince people not to use the service? You should, in all rights, be trying to convince people not to use the zaishen chest, period..

EDIT: If they care about the title then they won't use a service anyway. If they don't care about the service, then convince them to sell their z-keys. Otherwise they'll be worse off by continuing to use the chest without using a service since they'll be wasting keys while getting half the loot (much less than half of what they would get on average by not using the chest at all).

The service provider is offering you to DOUBLE your return. You go into Isle of the Nameless knowing statistically that it's a bad choice. If you're going to gamble, you might as well do it at DOUBLE EFFICIENCY.

Also, stop arguing by making insults. It's ridiculous. Then again, nobody in this thread respects you anymore anyway because you won't listen to logic.

Don't want to get ripped off? Sell the keys.
Don't care about Z-title and want to get ripped off less than others? Service the keys.
Want to get ripped off or care about Z-title? Open the chest yourself or provide Zaishen service.

You can go ahead and stop arguing now, because in the economic situation you're arguing about, you're wrong. Objectively. And everyone else knows it.

The client is getting a free drop. The quality of that drop is irrelevant as to the integrity of the arrangement. Only way its a scam is for the service provider to renege on relinquishing both drops.

Okay so.

A regular slot machine in the casino pays out 85-90% of the money thrown in the machine.
Has anyone ever complained this is a scam? No.

Gambling is gambling and don't confuse gambling with math. This entire OP is a waste of time if you ask me. Offcourse the zaishen chest is a money sink for anet, as they dont have much of those, if they want it to be a moneysink it's gonna pay out less than put into it.

And that's when gambling comes back in the picture.

well I think either he understands or is just upset at the people getting the title e4asier than he did. He's making the wrong argument. Nobody is arguing that using a z-key is better than selling it cash-wise.

I should ask him this, if a person is determined to use their z-key and refuses to sell it to another player in the hope they may get an everlasting tonic (your 2 out of 7500), would you recommend they use the z-key and hope that the 1 drop if a tonic or use a service and hope that one out of the two drops will be a tonic? How would you justify one over the other, assuming this person cares nothing about the title and is determined to use the chest. Which one of those two options (remember, selling the z-key is not an option in this scenario) is the best one for the client?

Now having said that, wouldn't it be better in your argument to challenge using the z-chest in any form (service or not) instead of directing it solely towards half the problem - the zaishen service..

EDIT: The other thing to remember is the items that (as far as I know) solely drop from the z-chest - the tonics. Are the prices of these tonics (let's just talk about the everlasting ones) from other players cheaper than the rate of drops through the z-chest? If so, then yeah - skip the chest and sell keys til you can afford it. If not, then use the chest if you want one of those tonics.

It's not all about cash value.

to OP:
are you just complaining because you didn't think to do it before you spent your money? could've gotten the title at half the price

Hmm... If the "scammer" wants to pay 2.5k per point towards a little emote that has no effect over me or anybody else, let them. Assuming their rich, (which they usually are if they want to pay so much for a title) then all I see is them circulating money back into the economy.

You keep skirting the logic we are bringing up. Nobody is arguing that 2 drops are higher than 13.

How can you possibly say that 1 drop is higher than 13? That's what it would be if someone didn't use the service and used the z-chest by themselves. Do you truly believe that 1 drop is better than 13? That's what you're arguing.

1 drop is worse than 2 drops which is worse than 13 drops.

so, your argument should have been don't use the z-chest in any form because (1 or 2 drops) is less than 13..

instead you are telling people that 2 drops is worse than 13 without also telling them that 1 drop (using the z-key without using a service) is less than 13.

HOWEVER, if a person is absolutely determined to use the chest..... (the 13 option is not there since they refuse to sell a z-key), 2 is a better drop rate than 1.

Flame me if you feel like it. But truth be told I doubt many will continue to use this service, or start. It's established now it's just not worth it for any reason to service your keys. Unless there is absolutly no item or title you want in gw.

YW for the warning cyall in Kamadan!

you are forgetting again that people value Title points as an "Item" persay.

cool, so you're saying that nobody should use the zaishen chest at all unless they are after the title. They should no go in by themselves and use the keys, and they also should not use the zaishen service. Instead they should always sell their keys to other players unless they want the title.

If you would have stated that in the beginning then you would have saved a whole lot of argument. We're glad now that you realize the service is not the problem but the chest itself is the problem.