Look at what I didn't get today/QQ Bad luck thread

TODAY I DIDNT GET A MINI after opening 180 royal gifts (over a stack all together).

Friend was complaining about their bad luck here. I said I probably had worse luck.

And then I got to thinking and thats never good. It's just math and if you open enough of something it should average out. With 2 accounts and 13 characters the best mini I got was a yr 2 gold in yr 4. Best bday mini I got right when they came out was a purple freezie. Not one green so far. I haven't got anything good off either the z-chest or good ole nick. I blew over a million on keys a wk or 2 before they gave you credit on them for the z-title so didn't even get pts. No el tonics etc. Did another few hundred k after and nothing. I gave up and decided to sell everything instead of gambling.

I had opened over 80 Royal Gifts and no mini over the past few weeks. Seemed like people were getting 1 in 50 or so. Mathematically it had to average out. I had 180 gifts sitting in storage and decided to see if luck or math would rule. Started opening thinking that by 20 or 30 I'd get a mini. 75 in and I had to start merching all those sweet expert salvage kits. 100 in and it didn't look good. 150 in and I knew it didn't matter and I wouldn't get any. Finished em up and now im full of superior ids, perfect salvage Kits, medals, rez scrolls, a couple sets of cons, and other crap. Has anyone else opened over a stack of royal gifts and not gotten a mini? LMAO! I've decided to keep opening everything as I get them. Hoping to shake the curse before gw2.

Still have 1k+ War supplies... maybe I should continue testing lol.

Oh and don't feel bad for me. I'm one of those guys who diversified into thing like Onyx and KUUNS (at their recent peak) lol. So this is nothing compared to those. Used to be pretty good at investing here... shoulda went into rare minis but thought they were too volatile.

So anyone having worse luck with gifts? How many gifts or z keys or rg's before you got something or still didn't. Cuz the math doesn't seem to add up.

lol ive opened probably 1k+ nick gifts(from buying and farming) and i still havent gotten my mini yakkington. ive gotten mini gwen doll.. but not the mini i acctually want. ive come to the conclusion that its better to sell the gifts and just buy the mini you want instead of wasting the stuff... i mean there will always be ppl opening gifts.. so why should i have to and get all the crap i DONT want? just food for thought <3

I've played for 5 years now, Well 56 months. Out of EVERYTHING all bday presents all gifts i've gotten NO minis better than white. Out of the gifts i got a walking stick. Z chest i've only gotten tomes and booze/party stuff and some crappy weapons

I can't really contribute to this thread as well as some others have, because I haven't kept track of all this stuff, plus I don't really like to gamble, but I've opened 22 different birthday gifts, and have gotten 19 white, 2 purple (both were second years), 0 gold, and 1 green, which was a bone dragon, and at the time they were worth ~70-80k.

I've done Nic every week except for 2-3 weeks. I've never gotten any of the gold/green weapons and I've never gotten a mini. Not once.

Same goes for every single chance based package-like item. Never gotten anything good from a coffer, from a birthday gift (all white minis), from a Thackeray gift, Wintersday gift, etc.

Oh, I got a Celestial Compass once from the zchest. Best thing I've ever gotten.

I open up a thread that is labeled "QQ thread" and I decide to leave it open. Must be getting soft after that vacation.

In truth, good topic.

OT: I once opened the ZChest 200 times for the title and got nothing worthy of resale other than a couple of Elite Tomes. Not even a weapon/focus/shield mod that could be resold.

Then my wife opened it 40 times, got a req 9 Healing Celestial Compass, and sold it for 80z. /rage

So you guys are gunna rage when I tell you I've gotten a Cel compass from the Z chest, a perf demonic shield from it too (sold for 50k). A walking stick, EL cottontail, several Kegs and red rock candies from nich... birthday gifts i haven't been so lucky in. The best I got was probably a Purple... a Mini elf for my 2nd yr. :P I usually have bad luck from end chests etc. So yeh the whole time i've had maybe 10 REALLY GOOD drops... in 33 months of play.

I've been playing 5 years and still haven't had a Superior Vigor rune drop. It's not a lot of money anymore but it would be nice, especially since I farmed Ettins extensively for them in 2005.

Traveled for Nicholas religiously, with nothing really to show for it. Been slacking lately but picked it up again. No greens, no minis, nada.

Opened maybe 30-50 Royal Gift and squat there, too. Now I feel doomed as I sit on almost 80 I've accumulated, waiting to pull the trigger. I might just sell and buy the Livia I want. Meanwhile my fellow guild mate has scored two minis from them.

So far my biggest claim to fame was Law and Order drop not too long ago. I think it's my most valuable drop to date. If my history of good loot was a line graph, that spike would rise above a nearly flat line.

Side note: what's the word on superior vigor runes? I remember back in the day I got one, maybe two. I have not seen one, with my guild or any group, in years. To this day I am shocked at the rarity.

well i have 8000 points in zaishen title and nothing but tomes and booze .....
About the sup vigor i got one in nm the other day on my way to doing one of the wanted quests.. and dropped from an ettin

Can't say I've opened any Royal Gifts, but I've gotten some decent stuff from Nic (got a Walking Stick and Ascalon Razor) and a few good things from Z-Chest (3 EL is about it).

Maybe it's perception though. I'm perfectly content with a Keg every 2 weeks or so or Disco Balls or Mysterious Tonics. Maybe Nic knows I appreciate him and gives me better stuff .

Even so, I do feel like I've lost more than I've gained from the Z-Chest. Nic is about break-even since I farm him about half of the weeks and buy the item the other half.

I have done Nicholas every week except for one since it started, and the nicest things I have ever received are a vampiric dragon sword, an Ascalon razor, and a moss spider egg. After 338 royal gifts, I have received only two miniature Salmas and a lot of crap.

Royal Gifts = no minis
Nick Gifts = lots of summoning stones, nothing else
Birthday Gifts = nothing better than a white
Zchest = nothing

hum my best drop ever? proly a r10 obi edge from zchest, opend a stack of gifts of traveler got nothing better then candy and ale, still nothing from royal gifts, once thou from a friends account I got a green year 4 but thats the best.

I opened up my 5th year minipet today.

White Siege Devourer. I've only gotten one gold mini and haven't even had the pleasure of opening a present with a green mini.

Rawr.

I have opened over 50 1st year bday gifts....the best I have done was 3 shiros--no rurik no bone dragon etc.....(I have deleted characters etc)....I have yet to get a green bday gift.....

now if you want dye drops, THOSE I get.....some accounts I think are just picked out for stuff----would explain lots (except my 2nd account also gets TONS of dyes--including the day I took my warrior out of pre--2 greens and a black, good thing I already had those on board).

nic wont give me a mini, I have only gotten one peacekeeper weapon (the peacekeeper)....so I do consider that lucky.

This last weekend I killed about 40 bosses---got ONE green (which I already had--podwhatevers fury)....

just is that way.

I've gotten rares from all parts of the game.. I used to be a farmer though- so I've had the voltaic spear drop.. bds.. frog scepter

plenty of eternal stuff from uw, chaos axes from fissure.. zodiacs in deep.. urgoz bow.. most of the boss greens..

recently got all 3 minis from opening royal gifts.. but I'll tell you guys a secret that I believe to be true

anet has only certain times when the rares will drop imo.. it's a certain time of day / day of the week.. I believe that's how they control the rarity instead of just a x% chance.. that's why you see 2 of the same gold weapon drop so often- it's more than coincidence esp if that weapon is rare.. so what I did is when people start posting in the royal gift thread about the mini they just got- opened all I had right then

it's the same with farming.. it used to be like clockwork when the game first came out- I remember farming golds in riverside.. I'd start the same time every day and sure enough right at that certain time the golds would start to drop like clockwork.. there is a drop rotation for that time of day on the chests/gifts/fortunes

now I'm not sure about today.. but it used to be all the mobs in an instance were assigned what they would drop.. not only that but you could see sometimes what the mob would drop because they would be wielding it

so you could gauge a 'crap' spawn by the first few mobs usually and rezone as a solo farmer

miss the old days really.. funny to see smite carrying an offhand in one of their claws.. but there it was xD

learn the times and you'll have the rares your after.. I've opened quite a few z chests myself and gotten rares- but that's about as random as it comes.. noone posts on those drop times they've gotten the el tonics, ect.. and it's expensive to plug away at it

my bad luck- recently opened over 50 gifts and no mini.. and I waited until I seen posts.. it's not an exact science by any means but I think most farmers can relate to my experience especially with the time of day

I like to think of the gifts/chests like a wheel that's spinning.. as it spins items are attached at any given time.. there are certain times there is no mini or other rares on the wheel- if you wait until there is a mini in the rotation.. then you just need enough gifts and open them in succession at an even pace and you'll have a much higher chance of hitting one (that wheel will of course have many more scrolls and other stuff you don't want on it- but at least your in the running)

nick on the other hand.. gotten plenty of red rocks and kegs- but never a mini or weapon (only have 1 account though).. those are pretty rare from what I've seen.. had to buy the vampiric sword and I never buy rares

that sucks :/ i got 3 from 20 gifts

/facepalm i completley forgot about royal gifts/zchest when i posted my earlier post.

first zchest drop.. was an el gel tonic.. i thought ok its green(i was a noob then) everyone has told me greens arent worth anything and i sold it to a guy for about 3k.

royal gifts i havent even bothered w/. there just isn't anything good other then the minis in there.. i mena you CAN get a mini but th chances are really really low.

oh and @mustache mayhem... that TBH sounds like a load of bull... i mean if there WAS a certain time of day u get better drops i think alot of people would have caught on by now... so it seems unlikely thats the case.(it'd be easier for those scripting guys anyway to do /percentage over certain times of days and such)

=] well you can take it from someone who's been there and had the drops happen.. I truely believe there are times when you have 0% chance of getting a certain drop

I've been playing since the very beginning, sooo.....

I got my first Black Dye after 8 months of frequent game-play.

I have yet to get a mini from Nick - haven't missed a week!

The only non-white birthday mini I've ever gotten - Mini Jora (she's awesome!)

I'll second Mustache's conspiracy theory regarding times of day.

I just had too much weird stuff happen around the top of the hour during HM Urgoz farming in '07 to dismiss the possibility that there's something temporal going on.

However, I also believe that such an effect is dominated by the effects of the number of players in the zone on your server at any given time. That inference is drawn from 2005 UW farming, so it may or may not be consistent with the modern loot scaling algorithm. However, the effects of the Guru post that revealed the Urgoz HM farm in '07 (when the rest of you found us) seemed to back up this thesis even after introduction of the loot scale algorithm. When your gold drops decrease by half, you notice.

I don't have hard numbers to back these claims up, merely individual experience and training in pattern recognition. Feel free to chalk it up to the human desire to recognize patterns if you wish, as I haven't hard mathematical evidence with which to contradict you.

But my experience suggests that two things are components of your drop seed without doubt: the number of players in the zone and the time of day. The latter should be unsurprising to anyone with experience in computer programming; the former is unsurprising given the purpose of "anti-farm" code.

I havent kept track for some time on gold spent. Up until about 6 months ago id spend 1mil in gold in blocks. So id farm or P-trade a little then spend a million on Zkeys and gifts. wait a month and repeat.

After 6 million spent this is the tally

I have to qualify by saying this is all sorts of sad lmao.....

Z Chest 2 draconic aegis , 3 celestial compass
Nick Gifts EL bunny tonic EL Crate and Brown Bunny
Royal boxes of crap BUBKISS!!!!!


Thanks for sharing!!

Cronk

PS i still like Christmas!!

oh hey i've been doing kathsc millions of times.


there was a guildie who wanted to learn how to kathsc.end chest he gets 2 emmerald blades and i get 2 Ilsunders rod.

1>1000000000000000000000
i quit kathsc after that

There's an awesome guy in Augury Rock giving away free stuff. I didn't get a single thing, because he attracted flies who won't stop buzzing around him.

52 months in for me and I think the best drop I've ever gotten was a superior Vigor Rune. I've actually had several of these, so not too bad. As far as mini's go I was an idiot and deleted several of the first characters I made so the best birthday present I've gotten was a year two that I just got recently.

Wtf. o.o You're the exact opposite of me. I've gotten at least 200 Sup Vigors by now throughout my entire GW career. Good lord, Marty. Would it make you feel better if I let you salvage off the next Sup Vigor I get? At least then you'll know what it's like to salvage one off a garb. ^___^


As for the Nick presents... Well... I've done it every week ever since it was released with on 10+ accounts (you do the math if you'd like, I'll pass ) and the best I've ever gotten was an Everlasting Cottontail Tonic, a Vampiric Dragon Sword, an Icy Dragon Sword and countless kegs. I want my damn Gwen Doll and Yakington. Q_Q


On the topic of the zChest... zzzzzz.... Don't get me started!! I've used that bitch enough times to max my Zaishen and the best I've ever gotten was a req 13 Voltaic Spear, a req 9 Divine Favor Celestial Compass and 2 Everlasting Yeti Tonics. <------------- /fail x20,000

50 months into a 54 month "career", finally unlocked the Superior Vigor rune.
2 mini Shiro, 1 Kirin, 1 Grawl Shaman, 30 some whites.
1 Celestial Oxen & 2 Celestial Tigers
I am not too much into Nick the Traveler, mainly go after him while he is in Prophesies. He has filled my inventory with Merchant Summoning stones and Mysterious Tonics, and a few Hunter's Ales, not the aged kind either.

My only green "mini" is my Black Moa Chick.

Edit: I almost forgot, I did get the Vampiric Dragon Sword a short while back.

I can't really complain I guess, I got a mini gwen for my 2nd birthday and Salma on my 34th royal gift.

It took me over 600 lunar fortunes to get a tiger earlier this year though. I gave up on the zchest pretty quickly, 5k for creme brule's just aint worth it.

Royal Gift: Salma only dropped for me i want evennia since she has nice model
Gift of the Traveler: still hunting after mini Yakkington but no luck there
ZChest: Perfect Celestial Sword is the only thing of value that dropped,
otherwise its been boose and sweets.

Minis the best so far is a gold and it was Undead Lich otherwise its been a lot of whites 1 purple.
Otherwise i usually get 3 celestial minis every year so far sold 1 still got
1 left but waiting for the last one to rise up in value.

The Collectors edition minis i dont consider luck since they are just extra e-peen stuff.

Royal gift : best was 5 lockpicks , rest is tons of salvage kit or scrolls
Z chest : 2 EL boreal 1 EL searing , no valuable gold , tons of tomes or flasks
Traveler : never any gold or green
Hall chest : 1 Q13 crystalline , rest is most of time sigils or flames ( upon 20k fame )
Birthdays : best was purple charr shaman , rest are white ( 5th year stone summit giant )
Uw/Fow/etc : nothing interesting from chest , not many ectos/shards dropping usually

So , yes , not that much lucky , but in my opinion , the problem is that there's a too big price diference between items . Most of time, from a given chest , all items will be worth 5-10k max , and the last one will be worth over 100ectos.

Welcome to the wonderful world of probability...
if something has a 1/100 chance of dropping.... opening it 100 times will in no way guarantee anything.... infact... each event is a distinct event therefore opening each time should be irrespective about previous outcomes... therefore if u have opened 100000000000000000x z chests and got only creme brulees... opening 1 more will still hold the same probabilty as normal. So, its a gamble, do the rough maths in ur head... selling keys, gifts or whatever gives certain cash.... gambling gives unknown cash.... atm for example i want my sweet tooth title... sooo no point gambling on z keys... i just sell them so i have guaranteed cash for my title... everyone just needs to decide that for themselves in each situation.

Ok, boring stuff done...

Now, probability only works if there is a chance of any outcomes from an event... e.g. killing a badguy and getting a gold weapon drop. GW does not work like this. It is much more predetermined and actually drops are decided when you zone into an area and not at the time when u kill the baddie or open the chest (not 100% sure on chests.. havent read any research about it). I saw a research thingy a while back on it and it found some evidence that drops were predetermined when u entered a zone and not at the time u kill something

Match, GtG

gl is all i can say

344 Zaishen keys, best item was that aegis that I sold for 60k.
Well over 100 royal gifts, no green or mini.
Nicholas: For almost a year opening each week on 1 account, got ascalon razor and then just regular stuff. But I got yakkington in week 2, so that isnt totally bad

100 zkeys, best was an elite tomb
hundreds of lunar fortunes, no mini.
many many dungeon runs, not one weapon. Best was naga shaman polymock.
after one year of weekly nick best I got was everlasting crate, but that's not worth much.

Opened the chest with a stack of 250 keys that I'd been saving up for ages just from general PvP.

I got 2 elite tomes which sold for a combined total of 15k, all the golds except one were just sell as unid fodder, and that one gold was ...

*drumroll*

a q10 insc Dom Plat scepter which was actually only worth about 10k. Then my friend goes and opens the chest with the 10 keys he had and get 2 El Charr tonics and a q9 Voltaic Spear.

Moral of the story, Z chest blows

Thats true since you have to open 1 at a time. But at the beginning, the more you have, the better your chances of scoring 1. The odds of finding 1 of anything goes up drastically when you start with 100 of anything compared to having just 1 at the start. Now obviously there is a small chance that someone could open 250+ Royal gifts and not get a mini, but the chances are slim whether they do it 1 at a time or start with a stack. Most have gotten a mini after opening 100 gifts or less. 50 seemed to be the number...

Maybe it's getting harder? Can ANET adjust the ratio on the fly or are gifts set the moment you trade in for them? Is there a finite number of those minis?

Is it being based on mathematical odds across the board, or is there some kind of counter that kicks in and I just opened mines at the wrong time. Doesn't seem likely that they would make a finite amount of those minis and then just leave crap for the stragglers.

Well at least it's new content. Probably lost a lot more than I'll make off it even if I were to start farming it again, but good for those who opened 3 gifts and got 2 mini's and 5 lockpicks.

Over 200 SoO runs, seen 25 or so BDS drop.
Over 60 Kath runs, seen 15 or so Emerald Blades drop.

Never got any of the above.

Done the quests on all 10 classes so :
3 x 5 gift quests = 15 gifts/char
3 x Inquistors HM = 6 gifts/char
So that makes 210 gifts
Add in some more bounties and some Falken hunting for a few nights - say 40 gifts
Total 250 gifts estimated I opened, but no proper count because I opened every present as I handed in the quests.

1 Mini Salma
1 Mini Livia ( they were actually consecutive presents in a set of 7 presents)
4 Mini Evennia (funniest was when I did 1 bounty on 1 char for 15 supplies for 1 gift)

So for my contribution to the stats that is a mini every 40ish gifts.

200(ish) Gifts: 1 Salma and 1 Evennia
Birthday Gifts: Gold; Lich, Beast of Arrrgghhh, Water and Fire Djinn, Rurik, Shiro, White Rabbit. Various purples, No greens ever.
Cathan New Year fortunes: 1 rat, 7 (or so) oxes, 8 Tigers.
Nick: 1 EL bunny tonic, 1 Icy sword
Mini Mania Contest: Naga Raincaller
Zchest: nada, zip, zero.

Lost count of total fortunes, nick gifts, z keys...

In D2 I always got my best drops like clockwork on sunday mornings between 10 am and noon. For GW I have decent luck opening stuff at a particular location. Never gotten anything good opening stuff in the Guild Hall, Any Town or outpost. Always seem to get better drops after a level up/skill point.

I think it may be time to pay more attention to the clock when opening stuff.

This. Mine was a Prince Rurik, most awesome man in Tyria, so that makes up for it I guess.