Stealth Update: The Festival Games have new titles!
Charmed: Win 50,000 tickets in games games of chance
Hapless: Lose 5,000 games games of chance
Not sure if they count for KoaBD, but they are account specific, not character specific, so you should go for both.
The easiest way to get it is to buy lots of tickets, then keep playing the 2 ticket game over and over (AFK is recommended).
New Titles: Charmed/Hapless
Zinger314
leech
god, 5,000 games..lol
Zinger314
Quote:
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Originally Posted by leech
god, 5,000 games..lol
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Also, the best way to get the charmed title is to play the 10 ticket game and stand on the center (you have a 5/9 chance of winning). However, since you lose more, it'll be very costly.
Cash
make sure to bring some ale to pass the time if youre not afk 
working three titles now while reading the forums
working three titles now while reading the forums
Lafayette
I've won two thousand tickets in the past hour. Fifty thousand sounds attainable. 
I've been standing on one of the middle side rings on the Nine Rings game. It seems to be winning me the most when it hits me, and still losing a fair amount of time (151 games and counting).
The ale idea is a good one. Might hunt me down some Hunter's.
I've been standing on one of the middle side rings on the Nine Rings game. It seems to be winning me the most when it hits me, and still losing a fair amount of time (151 games and counting).
The ale idea is a good one. Might hunt me down some Hunter's.
Across The Battle
I must retract this statement, >.> go go gadget idiot.
Lafayette
The progression towards these new titles show up in the Titles tab of the Hero window, like any other title.
Solar Light
heres a frightening idea, there may be multiple tiers, like the drunkard.
Across The Battle
Well im going for it, 6k and afk here i go!
Zinger314
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Solar Light
heres a frightening idea, there may be multiple tiers, like the drunkard.
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As I've said, it takes quite a lot of time for either title. It takes atleast 24 hours of straight gambling time to get either title. First tier of Drunkard is 16 hours.
Also, when would the next event be to obtain this title? It wouldn't be fair to end it without being able to get a rank 2...(then again, the Skill Hunter titles...)
Also, I've switched to the 10 ticket games. I notice I win more. 5/9 > 7/16.
LiQuId StEeL
Started with 8 full stacks of tickets on the 10 ticket game, and now I'm sitting pretty at around 10 full stacks. Corners are a bigger gamble, but the payoff seems to be working for me.
I'll leave it going overnight, and see where I end up.
I'll leave it going overnight, and see where I end up.
tuna-fish_sushi
my god i think they are asking us to be afk...
Solar Light
what makes this sad for me is that these will be the first titles i gain.
Kijik Oni Hanryuu
hey ill go afk after I farm enough orbs's for my mask, but I'm not even gonna be able to be on during this event spare a couple hours over the course of like three days lol, I do have another way of doing this tho, can't say anything about it.
Solar light I loled on that, it would be the first for me too, lets start a club: the "First titles while gambling!" club lol.
Solar light I loled on that, it would be the first for me too, lets start a club: the "First titles while gambling!" club lol.
snikerz
spent 50k on tickets, i'm definenly going for it
jaibas17
which do you think its the best place in the 9 sure game? corners, mid corners or center?
Zinger314
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jaibas17
which do you think its the best place in the 9 sure game? corners, mid corners or center?
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Center is 5/9 (56%) chance of winning. Mid-Corners is a 4/9 (44%) chance of winning. Corners is a 3/9 (33%) chance of winning.
Math is absolute.
Yuo Can Do It!
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jaibas17
which do you think its the best place in the 9 sure game? corners, mid corners or center?
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tuna-fish_sushi
center at 9 rings is best for lucky title where as anywhere on the 16 rings is good for unlucky
Solar Light
my current win and loss ratio is rather close, been at it for 2.5 hours i think, got a tenth of the lucky and a 15th of the unlucky, the ratios prolly wiggle a bit for each person but they proboably stay near a same average gain.
BTW, im running a beting area for my allience, they bet on weather i get lucky or unlucky first =p
BTW, im running a beting area for my allience, they bet on weather i get lucky or unlucky first =p
Cash
yeah i bought 2500 tix and as of now, with a 999 lucky/276 unlucky record, im up 7 tickets from what i started. this title wont be near as expensive as i originally thought it would be- id say buy at least 250 tix and just go afk and see how the odds treat ya.
jaibas17
but on 9 rings I always lose fast tickets lol... no way i can make some winning here
Solar Light
i gotten a slow decay, but ill leave my 14 stacks alone and se how it goes, lost perhaps two stacks so far... and got 1/10 lucky and 1/15 unlucky so far
Kijik Oni Hanryuu
I dun get how you can go afk for the tix game, do you just stand on a ring and it keeps going and taking tix and stuff?
LiQuId StEeL
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kijik Oni Hanryuu
I dun get how you can go afk for the tix game, do you just stand on a ring and it keeps going and taking tix and stuff?
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1) Pick a circle.
2) Minimize GW.
3) Turn off Monitor.
4) Sleep.
5) YAY!
Yuo Can Do It!
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kijik Oni Hanryuu
I dun get how you can go afk for the tix game, do you just stand on a ring and it keeps going and taking tix and stuff?
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Cash
yes, on the 2 tix to play game (rings of fortune), just pick a circle and stand there. get drunk, go afk, or whatever- just make sure to have a decent supply of tix.
Kijik Oni Hanryuu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LiQuId StEeL
Exactly. The game will keep playing (gaining/losing tickets the entire time) as long as you are on a circle.
1) Pick a circle. 2) Minimize GW. 3) Turn off Monitor. 4) Sleep. 5) YAY! |
ULTIMO LOL!! So howq does it work tho I heard something about getting "hit"? is someone throwing something at you? if so that's not very nice. Man I wish I could find this stuff out by maself but i only got Dial-up on a computer without GW installed and no GW cd to install X.X
jaibas17
1935 tickets won, 235 games lost, spent 2 tix, guess i can stay here all night, 8 tix remaining :P
Lafayette
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zinger314
Center
Center is 5/9 (56%) chance of winning. Mid-Corners is a 4/9 (44%) chance of winning. Corners is a 3/9 (33%) chance of winning. Math is absolute. |
If you do that math for that, then each position has an equal chance of receiving tickets. Centre wins more yes, but is awarded with less tickets on average per win. Corners win less, but average more per win. They net the same. As do the sides.
E.g.
Centre: (1/9 x 25 tickets) + (4/9 +15 tickets) + (4/9 x 0 tickets) = 9.444
Side: (1/9 x 40) + (3/9 x 15) + (5/9 x 0) = 9.444
Corner: (1/9 x 55) + (2/9 x 15) + (6/9 x 0) = 9.444
So on average one should be getting 9.444 tickets per round. With a cost of 10 tickets per round, that is a small net loss on average across players. Feel free to correct my maths if you find errors, but it seems all locations are fair in the reward of tickets - as it should be.
However, if you're also going for the Unlucky title then corners would be best, as that title does require losses and they have the highest chance. So in theory, equal chance among all positions for lucky title and highest chance in corners for unlucky title would imply corners are the best. Which is where I am standing now.
...
Up to 6,302 tickets won and 399 games lost at the moment.
Red
THE MATHEMATICS OF NINE RINGS
FOR THE LESS MATHEMATICALLY INCLINED
edit: Lafayette, darn you for posting so fast while I was writing this up. I refuse to take this down, though, as I worked so hard on it ;_;
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Lucky title is pushed forward as you win tickets. However you win tickets.
In 9-ring, standing in the center ring gives you 25 per win. A side ring yields 40 per win, and 55 is the prize for the corner. No matter which ring you are in, if the ring next to you (to your side, front, or back--NOT diagonally) is the winning ring, you get 15 tickets.
Assuming that every ring has an equal chance of winning, then each 'full round' would have each of the nine rings winning once. In this square 3x3 arrangment, that means that all corners have the same chances of winning; and the sides have the same chance as each other.
Analysis of the 'full round' of 9 games
Corner = 55 for win, plus 15 when either of the two side rings near the corner wins.
55 + 15 + 15 = 85
Side = 40 for win, plus 15 when the center wins, and 15 for each of the two corner rings it's next to.
40 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 85
Center = 25 for win, plus 15 when any of the four side rings wins.
25 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 85
Thus, we arrive at the following conclusion: for the Lucky title, it makes no difference which ring you pick.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Unlucky title is pushed forward only when you get ZERO tickets. Absolute loss. Note: this means that if you win 15 tickets for being near the winning space, you will NOT get a loss to count towards your Unlucky title.
Using the same methodology as the above example, we can count how many times each ring will receive NO tickets. Remember, only zero tickets will count as a loss for the Unlucky title. The consolation prize of 15 tickets will not help you here.
Analysis of the 'full round' of 9 games
Corner - receives tickets when it, or either of the two side rings, wins
Loses - 6 (the other three corners, far two side rings, and the center)
Side - receives tickets with it, the center, or either nearby corner rings wins
Loses - 5 (far two corners, and other three sides)
Center - receives tickets with it, or any of the side rings, wins
Loses - 4 (any of the corners)
Conclusion: for the Unlucky title, the corner rings are your best bet.
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Final conclusion: for titles, use the corner rings
Sidenote: In the Full Round, you will spend 90 tickets (10 tickets for each of 9 games) and win 85 no matter which ring you choose. Thus, every 9 games you would lose 5 tickets.
Statistics does not always = reality, so you could easily go in with 100 tickets and come out 500... but what this does mean is that, given enough time (say, all night long while you are afk), you will run out of tickets. Your best bet is to load up on tickets--but leave some spots empty, in case of a lucky streak!
~ Red
FOR THE LESS MATHEMATICALLY INCLINED
edit: Lafayette, darn you for posting so fast while I was writing this up. I refuse to take this down, though, as I worked so hard on it ;_;
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Lucky title is pushed forward as you win tickets. However you win tickets.
In 9-ring, standing in the center ring gives you 25 per win. A side ring yields 40 per win, and 55 is the prize for the corner. No matter which ring you are in, if the ring next to you (to your side, front, or back--NOT diagonally) is the winning ring, you get 15 tickets.
Assuming that every ring has an equal chance of winning, then each 'full round' would have each of the nine rings winning once. In this square 3x3 arrangment, that means that all corners have the same chances of winning; and the sides have the same chance as each other.
Analysis of the 'full round' of 9 games
Corner = 55 for win, plus 15 when either of the two side rings near the corner wins.
55 + 15 + 15 = 85
Side = 40 for win, plus 15 when the center wins, and 15 for each of the two corner rings it's next to.
40 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 85
Center = 25 for win, plus 15 when any of the four side rings wins.
25 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 = 85
Thus, we arrive at the following conclusion: for the Lucky title, it makes no difference which ring you pick.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Unlucky title is pushed forward only when you get ZERO tickets. Absolute loss. Note: this means that if you win 15 tickets for being near the winning space, you will NOT get a loss to count towards your Unlucky title.
Using the same methodology as the above example, we can count how many times each ring will receive NO tickets. Remember, only zero tickets will count as a loss for the Unlucky title. The consolation prize of 15 tickets will not help you here.
Analysis of the 'full round' of 9 games
Corner - receives tickets when it, or either of the two side rings, wins
Loses - 6 (the other three corners, far two side rings, and the center)
Side - receives tickets with it, the center, or either nearby corner rings wins
Loses - 5 (far two corners, and other three sides)
Center - receives tickets with it, or any of the side rings, wins
Loses - 4 (any of the corners)
Conclusion: for the Unlucky title, the corner rings are your best bet.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Final conclusion: for titles, use the corner rings
Sidenote: In the Full Round, you will spend 90 tickets (10 tickets for each of 9 games) and win 85 no matter which ring you choose. Thus, every 9 games you would lose 5 tickets.
Statistics does not always = reality, so you could easily go in with 100 tickets and come out 500... but what this does mean is that, given enough time (say, all night long while you are afk), you will run out of tickets. Your best bet is to load up on tickets--but leave some spots empty, in case of a lucky streak!
~ Red
Asrial
Can someone do the math on the 16 circle one?
Sweetest
Code:
5/6/X/4/3/7/1/4/1/2/3/2 9/7/4/4/4/6/3/ 8/9/7/4/x/6/3/8/2/5/6/6/ 9/3/5/3/7/7/4/ 8/8/2/1/4/8/6/6/2/2/3/9/ 1/6/4/2/1/7/2/ 5/6/3/7/1/3/8/2/3/9/6/1/ 2/2/4/5/9/8/8/ 5/1/5/2/8/4/7/3/2/3/9/1/ 6/3/3/2/8/6/1/ 7/6/5/7/6/3/7/6/6/3/8/7/ 7/1/1/9/3/3/9 7/6/6/4/6/3/8/9/1/1/6/1/ 6/7/3/8/8/2/6/ 1= 15 / 11.45% 2= 15 / 11.45% 3= 20 / 15.26% 4= 12 / 9.16% 5= 8 / 6.10% 6= 22 / 16.79% 7= 15 / 11.45% 8= 14 / 10.68% 9= 10 / 7.63% 1 = 42 / 32.05% 2 = 58 / 44.27% 3 = 57 / 43.50% 4 = 50 / 38.16% 5 = 71 / 54.19% 6 = 60 / 45.79% 7 = 41 / 31.29% 8 = 47 / 35.87% 9 = 46 / 35.11%
2nd set of percentage = % of winning anything
im adding more data and will have an updated chart at 1000 recorded
Zinger314
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Asrial
Can someone do the math on the 16 circle one?
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However, do NOT take a corner, otherwise you have a lesser chance of winning.
Meanwhile...I wish I was as big of a math nerf as you all.
Asrial
Well, I'm going to bed. I'll let you know my results in 7 1/2 hours 
ChunkyMonkey
Well, actually if you want both titles, then yes, take corners. You get the same number of tickets but you lose more often, hence accomplishing the goal of both titles the quickest
Red
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zinger314
All areas pay out the same, so it doesn't matter. It's just slower. However, do NOT take a corner, otherwise you have a lesser chance of winning.
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I will point out that the 9/16 rate of Unlucky is slower than the 9 ring's corner loss rate of 6/9.
9 ring in the corner = win
Zinger314
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Redly
I will not post my math, because the 16-ring one HAS no real math. Just pick a random ring and look--each ring has a 1/16 chance of winning for real, and 6/16 of being in the same row as a winner. For that reason, all rings are the same--7/16 of winning SOMETHING, and 9/16 for losing.
I will point out that the 9/16 rate of Unlucky is slower than the 9 ring's corner loss rate of 6/9. 9 ring in the corner = win |
Mercury Angel
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Zinger314
Center
Center is 5/9 (56%) chance of winning. Mid-Corners is a 4/9 (44%) chance of winning. Corners is a 3/9 (33%) chance of winning. Math is absolute. |
However, run the averages when you use actual winnings.
Corner: 1 chance to win exact (55 tickets), 2 chances to win adjacent (15 tickets)
In 100 trials, on average, you'll win 611 tickets for getting the exact circle right, and 333 tickets for getting an adjacent circle. (55 * [1/9] + 15 * [2/9]). Or, 944 tickets won, having paid 1,000 to play.
For Middle-Edge circles, it's 444 tickets for getting the exact circle right, and 500 for adjacent, or... 944 tickets won, once again, and 1,000 to play.
For the center circle, it's 278 tickets for getting the exact circle right, and 666 tickets for adjacent. Once again, 944 won vs 1,000 paid. (
No matter what game you play, no matter what circle you choose... The odds always even out. And they're always to your disadvantage.
Since I'm on that topic, might as well show the math on the other game.
1/16 chance to win 12 tickets, no matter where you pick. (exact)
6/16 chance to win 3 tickets, no matter where you pick. (in a line)
You will get 75 tickets, on average, in 100 games for choosing the exact circle. You will get 112.5 tickets, on average for picking the circle in a line.
In total, you are likely to win 187.5 tickets in 100 games, while you pay 200. Or, 937.5 out of 1000 tickets paid.
In short, your best bet of all the games is to play Nine Circles and take a Corner circle. The payout is the same as the other circles in Nine Circles, the Nine Circles game just a tiny bit better than the 16 Circles game, in addition to being faster, AND, the corner has the highest LOSE rate.
You lose the most games, win the same amount of tickets, and win tickets fastest (as opposed to the slower-paced 16 circles game).
Edit: Note, this is assuming that all of the circles in all of the games have an equal chance of being landed on. (not the adjacent/line aspects, just the actual specific circle). If the random circle chooser program actually favours a specific circle, then the numbers are wrong.
Kijik Oni Hanryuu
ZOMG *reads all the math posts* *brain explodes* X.X