Lavish Loot and Lockpicks! (Weekend Event) - Guild Wars Guru archive powered by Guild Wars Legacy

Neo Nugget

Site Contributor

Join Date: Jan 2006

R/

30 May 2007 at 03:54 - 41

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tahlia Tane

WRONG.

If the chance of gold is 70%, you double that, you get 140% chance of a gold drop. This means that, when you open a chest, you get a gold item and a 40% of getting ANOTHER gold item. HOLY SHIT!! TWO GOLD ITEMS IN ONE CHEST, YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST.

But! Since 140% is already 40% over 100%, where will the remaining 15% chance go? ...*gasp*

Ladies and gentlemen, expect purple items to fall from the sky this coming weekend.

*scratches head*...........what?

garethporlest18

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

[HiDe]

W/

30 May 2007 at 03:58 - 42

Redd, I'm doing this weekend for chest title, not for money. So it doesn't really matter to me. Well also rares, so any rare..good or bad is wanted. But I probably will do 600g keys cause I can do more of those than lockpicks, although I'll try lockpicks as well cause I don't break them often.

hopefulliness

Academy Page

Join Date: Aug 2006

legendary knights of vanhalla

W/Mo

30 May 2007 at 04:00 - 43

Quote:

Originally Posted by redd66

Sounds like a great way to lose money this weekend... spend 1.3k-1.5k on a lockpick (80-90% chance it will break) and get a worthless gold item that you sell to merchant for 200-300g or sell unidentified for 700-800g (if you are lucky). Net loss per chest is 500g-1.2k depending on what you do with your golds. Hard mode made golds drop like rain and hardly any skins are worth anything anymore. Ovenight the GW economy experienced hypergold inflation with the hard mode and deflation (prices dropping) with gold coin drop nerfs. We see this reflected everywhere from golds going to the merchant now (I have sold about 150 golds to the merchant in the last 10 days easy and have 5 storage characters completely full with golds I was too lazy to deal with and never bothered to id and now am too overwhelmed to even start on them cuz I have so many...

), ectos in the toilet, rare skins worthless, and once rare mods dropping every day in price.

I think you would be a fool to spend 100k on lockpicks or keys this weekend. You will not make your money back like we used to just a couple of months ago. The economy has changed and those who do not realize it will be poorer come Monday. Expect a net loss of 500g-1.2k for every lockpick you buy or more. You might break even with sub 600g keys, but I doubt it. You won't get anything good in a sub 600g key and you won't be able to sell an even less desirable gold anyway.

Perhaps this is ANET's sneaky way of sucking some currency out of the economy from people who made money in the past doing this and have fantasies of doing it again. I was one who made some nice coin in the past, but I will not be wasting money on keys this weekend.

Guild wars has changed from a game of playing and trading, to just a game of playing. When all items are common and easy to get, the trading aspect of the game is gone. We are there now. Don't waste your weekend farming thinking you will get rich because you won't. Anet ruined one of the best parts of the game (the trading and the economy), so just have fun and play the game instead this weekend.

I'm sorry but are you high? Anet is trying to do something nice, but you're definately one of those people would complain if you got a million bucks

Yawgmoth

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

30 May 2007 at 04:14 - 44

I totally agree with redd66 on the state of current economy. Its totally broken, to the point of no return, the damage done cannot be undone. The only solution i see is... moving to GW2 as soon as possible!

But i still think that even with merching 95%+ gold drops i'll be able to break even on this weekend, cheap lockpicks + ~60% chance of not breaking + knowing what to salvage was always enough.

Luna Star

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Apr 2007

30 May 2007 at 04:14 - 45

A box has 7 gold balls and 3 purple balls, you have double the chance of pulling a gold one out of that hat, there is still a chance you get a purple.
Anyway i think my iq dropped reading what people said about how probabilities work.

klrk

Academy Page

Join Date: Mar 2007

The Space Rangers

W/

30 May 2007 at 04:15 - 46

i'm gonna go hm chest run in doa ^^

fenix

Major-General Awesome

Join Date: Aug 2005

Aussie Trolling Crew HQ - Event Organiser and IRC Tiger

Ex Talionis [Law], Trinity of the Ascended [ToA] ????????????????&#

W/

30 May 2007 at 05:21 - 47

Cool update, might do some Chest Runs to see if I can get anything usable

Yawgmoth

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

30 May 2007 at 05:41 - 48

Now to talk about probabilities, I remember the last double gold weekend, I ran ~60 DoA chests then (it was before the 16th Feb nerf so chests easily spawned in Stygian Veil).
While normally DoA chests have a gold drop rate of ~80-85%, during double weekend it was 100%.

There's some testing to be done in the coming weekend, especially Hard Mode testing. For example we don't have any information on whether Elite tomes count as 'rare' drops or not, same with normal tomes. Several runs during weekend should give a clear answer.

mazey vorstagg

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Aug 2006

Nodnol

Meeting of Lost Minds

E/Mo

30 May 2007 at 06:11 - 49

That is totally awesome!!

(whether or not is was my weekend event post that gave them the idea we shall never know : ). They've done it before so I doubt it )

Psuedo Halgoen

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Dec 2006

GMT+10

30 May 2007 at 07:28 - 50

This rare chest loot, I wonder if it applies to the "free" chests scattered throughout Nightfall?
Here's hoping.

Zaganher Deathbane

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jul 2006

Las Vegas

N/

30 May 2007 at 07:38 - 51

So does this mean we will expect lockpicks to drop in normal mode?

Milennin

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Sep 2006

Europe

W/

30 May 2007 at 07:41 - 52

I hope to get an Elemental Sword drop this weekend.=D Unfortunately I don't have that much cash to spend on Lockpicks.=(

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

30 May 2007 at 08:28 - 53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zaganher Deathbane

So does this mean we will expect lockpicks to drop in normal mode?

Very doubtful. Most likely:

Keys - Normal Mode
Lockpicks - Hard Mode

Oh and, yay for a good weekend event!

Drop of Fear

Forge Runner

Join Date: Nov 2006

W/

30 May 2007 at 08:34 - 54

was waiting for this weekend to run 1500+chests

Etta

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

Mancland, British Empire

30 May 2007 at 08:39 - 55

This weekend will be much better than the last one.

uxxmall

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Jun 2005

Romania

The Notorious Luna

Mo/Me

30 May 2007 at 10:40 - 56

why ur so happy about more golds drop, u can`t sell nothing .

savage vapor 33

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Nov 2006

Regems Basement

The Malevolent Wolfpack [tMw]

30 May 2007 at 10:40 - 57

W T S Unid golds! 1k each! Ftw....

Destinyy

Banned

Join Date: Mar 2007

Faction of War [ARES]

30 May 2007 at 11:15 - 58

WOOOHOOOO, Nice idea this!!!

I haven't sold anything in game since I started playing, but I have the nicest weapons for my main chars... I build em all myself by salvaging mods and adding them to skins I like...

If I can pick up a crap load of good drops this weekend with nice mods, then I can make me some killer weapons for my chars...

Big_Iron

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Dec 2005

The Edge

Tormented Weapons [emo]

30 May 2007 at 11:34 - 59

I'm not much of a treasure hunter, so I'll be passing this one by. But I'm sure it'll be a lot of fun for the treasure hunters and chest runners out there. Good luck guys!

Coridan

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jun 2006

US

Old Married Gamers {OMG}

W/

30 May 2007 at 11:47 - 60

it''s hard now to get 1k out of unids...i see alot of peeps selling 7 for 6k .... I have 35 unids in storage and can't hardly sale them...although i will participate in the event....try to get to R4 of the title track....but i doubt it will be extremely profitable. 1.2k for a lockpick that breaks as often as not...maybe i will just run the standard keys...but i love the "chance" that it won't break....grrr looking for a chest running anonymous group grrr

Winterclaw

Wark!!!

Join Date: May 2005

Florida

W/

30 May 2007 at 12:55 - 61

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yawgmoth

I totally agree with redd66 on the state of current economy. Its totally broken, to the point of no return, the damage done cannot be undone. The only solution i see is... moving to GW2 as soon as possible!

If it's broken this weekend won't hurt anything.

Maybe if Anet made it so people really didn't *need* perfect golds of some uber-rare skin the economy would be better. If we had more options at the weapon-crafters for example...

Mournblade

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: May 2005

Houston, Texas

Dawn Treaders [DAWN]

W/Mo

30 May 2007 at 13:33 - 62

Thats funny because i've never heard someone say, 'damn, if only i'd had a crystalline skin on my sword, I could have beaten that guy.' :P

LONGA

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Sep 2006

Thailand

Agot

N/

30 May 2007 at 13:56 - 63

My ranger will be happily runinng around Relm of torment for sure.Maybe hardmode if there's people willing to do it.

redd66

Banned

Join Date: Jan 2007

30 May 2007 at 14:26 - 64

Ok, I put my money where my mouth is... and last night unloaded every unid gold I had except for swords, low req bows, and low req axes. And I am talking a LOT of them. You can't get 1k for them. Nor did they sell well at 860g each (7 for 6k). However, I got rid of them at 7 for 5k, or 710g each. If I am correct, you will be LUCKY to get 710g each for unid golds after this weekend. I predict a new low of 500-600g being established for unid golds after this weekend. So doing the math... I see this weekend as a big loser for lockpick runners and high end key runners. Maybe break even for low end chests.

Oh, and to the poster who questioned whether I was high in a previous post... only my gold coin is at an all time high as I had to start using a second account to store it. However, it is pretty clear that the GW economy is permanently broken with gold coin deflation and gold item inflation = no one has as much money as before and the gold skinned items are so common they aren't worth anything anyways. I have come to the conclusion that the people at ANET were either:
1) stupid and didn't realize what hard mode and coin nerfing would do
2) brilliant and decided to make GW1 a worthless trading economy so that people and the millions of chinese bot accounts they will be selling (Gaile's 10% est. of all accounts sold is mind blowing!) will move to GW2 next year

So, yes, I will have fun this weekend and enjoy a few more gold drops from chests that I trip over. But I am not going to run chests. I still say it is a money loser in today's gold item saturated economy.

arcanemacabre

Grotto Attendant

Join Date: Feb 2006

North Kryta Province

Angel Sharks [As]

30 May 2007 at 14:33 - 65

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mournblade

Thats funny because i've never heard someone say, 'damn, if only i'd had a crystalline skin on my sword, I could have beaten that guy.' :P

Well of course not! It's Crystalline! The thing breaks just by looking at it. Seriously, it's see-through, and has cracks all in it.

Andisa Kalorn

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jul 2006

[PMS]

30 May 2007 at 15:04 - 66

Well of course the economy is horribly broken.

That's why I love events like this - they really help with my wisdom title.

FalconDance

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Sep 2005

...deep within the sylvan splendor...

Order of the Migrating Coconuts [ALBA]

30 May 2007 at 15:23 - 67

Am I the only one who doesn't run chests? I mean, sure, if I happen on one in questing or exploring, I'll open it up and hope like crazy it'll have something really cool in it (and if it's nice, I'll use it. Seldom sell for exhorbitant - or even mildly crazy - prices, don't need gold that badly, I guess.). But to do nothing but run chests is so incredibly boring and definitely not why I spent my money on the game.

At any rate, have renewed interest in GW anyhow lately, so I guess I'll see what extra goodies the three continents may have

.

~Falcon

Red-Tide

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Jun 2005

Edmonton, Canada

[Liar]

Mo/

30 May 2007 at 15:33 - 68

Events like this no longer hurt the economy because the in game economy is so FUBAR'd that it doesnt matter.

Great for titles, but making an already over flooded market worse though. Ah well, title's are all I work on now anyway. Can't be bothered to use the GW "trade system" (GG ANERF) so I merch about 95% of crap and either use the rest or give it to guildies.

*Maybe it was Anet's intent to tank the economy????

TedTheDead

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Feb 2007

Sons of Metal

N/

30 May 2007 at 16:06 - 69

Where in the heck are you guys going where you get a 70% chance to get a gold? Ive chest run everything, from Ascalon (bored) to the Southern Shiverpeaks, to the Realm of Torment and back to Kourna. NEVER have I seen 70% gold rate.

MSecorsky

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

So Cal

The Sinister Vanguard

Me/

30 May 2007 at 18:12 - 70

Quote:

Originally Posted by booooYA

Man too bad prom falls on this weekend. I absolutely love chest farming. Oh well, maybe next time.

Dude, you're going to a prom.

You'd better be chest farming.

Sir Skullcrasher

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jun 2005

California

15 over 50 [Rare]

W/Mo

30 May 2007 at 18:48 - 71

time to get more keys!!

Thunder79

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Aug 2006

Chaos Rising

30 May 2007 at 19:11 - 72

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSecorsky

Dude, you're going to a prom.

You'd better be chest farming.

LOL....great reply.

as for the guild wars weekend...I don't open many chests...so this weekend won't affect me much...oh well. have fun chest farmers...of all kinds :P

truemyths

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jan 2007

30 May 2007 at 19:47 - 73

ok "chest farming" that was a good one. What I wouldn't give to be at prom again... mmmmm chest farming mmmmmm donuts mmmmmm

I am not sure the economy is broken per se. It's just different. Less gold, fewer truly rare skins. It could be that the expansion pack will help with creating some more truly rare items. Come to think of it, when was the last time you saw someone run by with a zodiac item or a guardian of the hunt shield. :P

Mournblade

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: May 2005

Houston, Texas

Dawn Treaders [DAWN]

W/Mo

30 May 2007 at 19:50 - 74

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcanemacabre

Well of course not! It's Crystalline! The thing breaks just by looking at it. Seriously, it's see-through, and has cracks all in it.

Doh! And I suppose a fellblade skin is just fluffy clouds?

Every time i lag

Banned

Join Date: Jan 2007

Belgium

Murder Death Sadists Of Doom [MDSD]

E/Me

30 May 2007 at 20:26 - 75

wasted evrything on fow =/
argh ..

Every time i lag

Banned

Join Date: Jan 2007

Belgium

Murder Death Sadists Of Doom [MDSD]

E/Me

30 May 2007 at 20:27 - 76

wasted evrything on fow =/
argh ..

Hyper Cutter

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jun 2006

Knights of the White Eye [HINA]

30 May 2007 at 20:27 - 77

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSecorsky

Dude, you're going to a prom.

You'd better be chest farming.

I see what you did there...

Relnor

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Feb 2006

W/

30 May 2007 at 20:43 - 78

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinger314

Double chance of gold = half chance of purple.

If chance of Gold = 70%, then chance of purple = 30%.

Therefore, with the weekend in effect:

Half chance of purple = 30%/2 = 15%

Therefore, there's a 85% chance of a gold, and a 15% chance of purple.

Go back to Pre-Calc...P does not imply Q. A double chance of gold is not the same as a half chance of purple. That defies math, logic, and all common sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

...or maybe the people doing the math at A.Net aren't retarded and it's actually a doubled rare chance?

Winner.

Every time i lag

Banned

Join Date: Jan 2007

Belgium

Murder Death Sadists Of Doom [MDSD]

E/Me

30 May 2007 at 20:44 - 79

something wrong with my internet -.-
sorry for double post

trobinson97

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2006

Guildless :(

R/

30 May 2007 at 20:51 - 80

Quote:

Originally Posted by Every time i lag

something wrong with my internet -.-
sorry for double post

It's not your connection, don't worry. It's this site.