I saw someone spamming an armbrace for 100K + 10 ectos last night in Kamadan.
I find it amusing since a little over a month ago you found people spamming/trading at between 100K + 35 ectos to 100K + 40 ectos.
This really has to be causing havoc in the very high-end trading circles, as one of their main commodities is really taking a nosedive.
Anyone have any ideas as to why the market has cratered? The proliferation of Ursan? The spending of excess cash on sweets/party favors/afking during the Canthan New Year? The decreasing rarity of tormented weapons?
It's been one of the biggest movements in the economy I've seen over the past year...
The crash of the armbrace market...
Jetdoc
I MP I
Ursan and duping.
Shuuda
It's starts with the letter "D" I believe >_>.
N1ghtstalker
ursan definitly
worst idea ever
worst idea ever
Racthoh
Armor of Salvation.
Essence of Celerity.
PvE skills.
Essence of Celerity.
PvE skills.
Jetdoc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by I MP I
Ursan and duping.
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If not, I'm not sure how the duping scandal from several months ago would be impacting the market now...
stretchs
Duping and consumables are really the key culprits of this, regardless of what anet has said about removing the dupes armbrace, many people realize/can see it just isnt true. Ursan while something that has sped it up, without the consumables ursan is not nearly as an effective method. Also there were 117 guys that farmed this area nonstop......
Songbringer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
I may be ignorant, but is duping STILL going on?
If not, I'm not sure how the duping scandal from several months ago would be impacting the market now... |
Because they didn't catch them all and people still sell them off.
Songbringer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by stretchs
Duping and consumables are really the key culprits of this, regardless of what anet has said about removing the dupes armbrace, many people realize/can see it just isnt true. Ursan while something that has sped it up, without the consumables ursan is not nearly as an effective method. Also there were 117 guys that farmed this area nonstop......
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Err the 117 refers to the ones who were banend for using the "secret outposts" to run peopl through the game and skipping over many sections. Or am I mistaken? I generally avoid reading about people getting banned because I don't care and believe that anet truely only bans people who deserve it.
Cathode_Reborn
If Duping was the reason, I think the prices would've lowered ages ago.
Just take a quick trip to DoA and you'll see that every single pug there is running Ursan
Just take a quick trip to DoA and you'll see that every single pug there is running Ursan
Uber Mass
Overfarmed by ursan teams... how many threads there been about this?
Simple fact of market been overflowing with armbraces... its not quite rare if you have a tormented weapon atm =p
Simple fact of market been overflowing with armbraces... its not quite rare if you have a tormented weapon atm =p
Jetdoc
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Songbringer
Because they didn't catch them all and people still sell them off.
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Interesting...
P.S. Regarding the 117, I'm still not clear why that would be impacting prices over the past couple of weeks, since those people were banned (and the exploit closed) over a month ago. That is, unless there is some hidden supply of armbraces...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Uber Mass
Overfarmed by ursan teams... how many threads there been about this?
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makosi
With an Ursan team using consumables, you can easily get an Armbrace in a weekend or even in a day if you're hardcore. You are guaranteed 14 gems from a full run so 4 runs gives you 56 out 60 gems required - and this excludes gem drops.
MithranArkanere
Bleh.
What is better? 3..4 professions making the very same thing with the very same fixed build, or 10 professions making the very same thing with the very same build?
Almost the same.
What is better? 3..4 professions making the very same thing with the very same fixed build, or 10 professions making the very same thing with the very same build?
Almost the same.
Zahr Dalsk
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
If not, I'm not sure how the duping scandal from several months ago would be impacting the market now...
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Lower Prices -> people less willing to pay as much as they used to be even when their availability is less common again.
Uber Mass
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
But why over the past couple of weeks? I doubt that Ursan has become some new, flashy thing that has just now taken stride since the Canthan New Year...but I could be wrong.
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a NM run with a decent ursan team takes about 1.5 hrs for all 4 areas
mallyx about 15 mins
do that x100 groups running around every day.
Tachyon
Sod the Armbraces, I'd like to know where people get all these ectos from! I've been playing since day one, have all three campaigns and EotN yet haven't had a single ecto drop for me at all!
HawkofStorms
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
Hmmm...so the argument would be that there is some "hidden supply" of duped armbraces out there that have been held back and just recently introduced into the marketplace?
Interesting... P.S. Regarding the 117, I'm still not clear why that would be impacting prices over the past couple of weeks, since those people were banned (and the exploit closed) over a month ago. That is, unless there is some hidden supply of armbraces... |
aapo
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Azagoth
Sod the Armbraces, I'd like to know where people get all these ectos from! I've been playing since day one, have all three campaigns and EotN yet haven't had a single ecto drop for me at all!
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hurric
GWEN was the reason of course (Ursan+consums/pve skills+and all that crap)
a LOT of people can buy an armbrace cheap now so good for them. No turning back on that but I wonder if they regret it at ANet since they're still not making the Zaishen chest drop anything good even after all these people opening the chest with hundreds of keys. What we had maybe 1 super rare drop and a handful of eternal blades? They might as well make it drop more stuff so everyone has everything before GW2. Why not !
a LOT of people can buy an armbrace cheap now so good for them. No turning back on that but I wonder if they regret it at ANet since they're still not making the Zaishen chest drop anything good even after all these people opening the chest with hundreds of keys. What we had maybe 1 super rare drop and a handful of eternal blades? They might as well make it drop more stuff so everyone has everything before GW2. Why not !
Danax
Ugh. That sucks. By the time I farm an armbrace they'll be worthless!
I hate homework.
I hate homework.
cosyfiep
huh? crash???? when it goes to say 50k---THAT is a crash....right now its still in the rich people territory, so when it drops out of THAT then I will think about it being a 'crash'.....until then---who cares?
stretchs
Most of the people that got away with duped armbraces werent going to just jump at putting them on the market, it would be too obvious, they would hold it out, just like stealing something, you wouldnt want to try to fence it in that same market immediately while someone was looking for counterfeit things, its the way of the outlaw to know to hold things a bit til the heat clears some. The price will regardless of what builds drop, yes recently it has been dropping more. Much of that is because it is one of the best places known to make money, the builds are becoming more refined (yes ursan) Plus there has been no new content since gwen, most people have completed it and now are looking for new things which leads them to things like doa and the such.
Randvek
Yep. I doubt highly that duping has anything to do with the crash in the market. People blame Ursan, and yeah, it is at fault to a certain extent, but the #1 reason for the crash in Armbraces is, imho, consumable items.
pakhavit
I saw a lot minipet in high-end
I feel like they duping mini pet too >_<
I feel like they duping mini pet too >_<
politicsxxox
2 days ago , i entered a Slaver's Exile team. All party members had a Tormented shield. 1 had the Tormented Sword , 2 had the axe , 1 had the spear.
-Just an observation. Not really suprised at what happened.
-Just an observation. Not really suprised at what happened.
Chthon
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jetdoc
Anyone have any ideas as to why the market has cratered?
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2. No one knows exactly how many duped armbraces are still out there, so the market has been unable to correct itself. We normally use the difficulty of farming an item to estimate its supply, and we use its popularity in trade chat and on the forums to judge demand, and then estimate a price from supply and demand. With no reliable data on supply, people assume the worst (that there's a huge supply surplus somewhere) and price goes down.
(To throw fuel on the fire though, I suspect that the actual state of affairs may be worse than "the worst" that most people are assuming. At least as far back as the "hacked" and "bugged" items in D2, there've been online-game cartels willing to hold enormous stocks of items for years in order to create the illusion of scarcity to keep prices high. When I see stuff like this, I get a strong suspicion that the same thing is happening again. If this sort of cartel exists, the "fact" that armbraces are any rarer and more valuable than skree harpy wings may be an illusion dependent solely upon their willingness to continue sitting on their huge inventories and restrict themselves to selling a small volume at high prices. If the cartel decides to cash out tomorrow, we might find armbraces cheaper than skree wings.)
3. The Mallyx Exploit added a large number of illegitimate armbraces, some of which were traded/given away before the 117 were banned. Compared to the number of armbraces left over from duping, this is a drop in the bucket, but it's most likely a non-trivial amount as compared to the total number of armbraces ever obtained through legit means. The number of Mallyx-exploit armbraces might even slightly exceed the number of legit armbraces.
4. Ursan makes legit armbraces easier to get. But, again, compared to the number of armbraces left over from duping, this is a drop in the bucket.
??Evan??
D
U
P
E
What does that spell? DUPE!
U
P
E
What does that spell? DUPE!
RavagerOfDreams
duping + ursan = dead economy
not that it was alive before...
not that it was alive before...
Richardt
TBH, when I first saw the drop in Armbraces, I thought it was Ursan.
But when you consider that there's been tons of Ursan teams hitting DoA for about...what? 4 monthes? If UB was soley to blame, then we should've seen the market for this crash a while ago.
There has got to be another cause to this-if it was mass quantities of Dupping left over from the fall still floating around, then again the market should've crashed...unless for some preverse reason people just held onto the Armbraces and as soon as they started seeing them go for less and they panicked and just started selling them to get as much money as they can.
Then throw in all the gemsets from the 117......
Maybe we as a community need to start overpaying to help stabalize the market
But when you consider that there's been tons of Ursan teams hitting DoA for about...what? 4 monthes? If UB was soley to blame, then we should've seen the market for this crash a while ago.
There has got to be another cause to this-if it was mass quantities of Dupping left over from the fall still floating around, then again the market should've crashed...unless for some preverse reason people just held onto the Armbraces and as soon as they started seeing them go for less and they panicked and just started selling them to get as much money as they can.
Then throw in all the gemsets from the 117......
Maybe we as a community need to start overpaying to help stabalize the market
jimmyboveto
Seriously why are people surprised? If you ask me, between the ursan and duping incident, the crash was inevitable.
obastable
If it was up to me I'd:
1 - replace Armbraces with a new item that can be aquired through the exact same means (X amount of gems for 1 new item)
2 - make all current Armbraces a non-transferable commodity
3 - implement a collector that gives 1 loot bag in exchange for 1 Armbrace
4 - give said loot bags an amazingly small chance to produce some rare mini; essentially another coffer with a different name & chance for a few different/new things
*note: overall it may be easier to just combine armbraces into the current coffer of whispers system.
5 - keep Armbraces in the game for the sole purpose of trying to acquire some rare mini (just like coffers) and lower the gem count needed to acquire one accordingly
Sure, it'd piss off a lot of honest farmers, but it'd instantly remove every single duped Armbrace from the economy. Permanently.
1 - replace Armbraces with a new item that can be aquired through the exact same means (X amount of gems for 1 new item)
2 - make all current Armbraces a non-transferable commodity
3 - implement a collector that gives 1 loot bag in exchange for 1 Armbrace
4 - give said loot bags an amazingly small chance to produce some rare mini; essentially another coffer with a different name & chance for a few different/new things
*note: overall it may be easier to just combine armbraces into the current coffer of whispers system.
5 - keep Armbraces in the game for the sole purpose of trying to acquire some rare mini (just like coffers) and lower the gem count needed to acquire one accordingly
Sure, it'd piss off a lot of honest farmers, but it'd instantly remove every single duped Armbrace from the economy. Permanently.
Antheus
In real world this is the bubble bursting.
Armbrace prices have been overinflated for longest time simply due to perceived impossibility of obtaining them.
Now however, it has become too easy to get them. This in turned caused the price to drop below the real market value (of around 100k). Expect prices to keep coming down well under 100k. Then, the supply will dry up, and they'll slowly balance out at realistic price.
Armbrace prices have been overinflated for longest time simply due to perceived impossibility of obtaining them.
Now however, it has become too easy to get them. This in turned caused the price to drop below the real market value (of around 100k). Expect prices to keep coming down well under 100k. Then, the supply will dry up, and they'll slowly balance out at realistic price.
Shanaeri Rynale
re: duped armbraces. they should have made them non tradeable as soon as it was clear there were dupes out there.
Sure you'd annoy some people, but no way would it have had the negative effect on the economy duping would have.
Not worried too much about armbrace prices. With no more new stuff in any great quantity coming, everything will reduce in price anyway.
Sure you'd annoy some people, but no way would it have had the negative effect on the economy duping would have.
Not worried too much about armbrace prices. With no more new stuff in any great quantity coming, everything will reduce in price anyway.
Sir Pandra Pierva
Ambraces are like diamonds
common but heavly controlled and inflated.
honestly this thread seems like another
OMG MY AMBRACE FARMING IZZZZZ DEAD I CAN'T MAKE UBER CASH FROM SELLING THEM.
plus most tormented items look like shit anyway.
common but heavly controlled and inflated.
honestly this thread seems like another
OMG MY AMBRACE FARMING IZZZZZ DEAD I CAN'T MAKE UBER CASH FROM SELLING THEM.
plus most tormented items look like shit anyway.
kradens
aw......armbraces take a booboo
if ur stackign armbraces, you already have more money than u need.
get over it.
if ur stackign armbraces, you already have more money than u need.
get over it.
EmptySkull
I think it's a combination of things.
O on a side note 4 to 2 months away from this years wintersday will be the last chance to get alot for that mini polar. Because by that time everyone will wait to see if they can get one for free.
- Removing the requirement for a gemset for Razah. Which decreases demand by removing a small sink for the gems.
- Duping. Increased supply reduce price. Although this was months ago it is coming into play now because of the following.
- Urasn+Consumables. Now anyone with GW:EN can come to DoA and complete what use to take 6-8 hours in 2 and a half. Increased supply of gem reduced prices.
This is leading to the big reason which is - Panic. Now everyone that has been holding on to armbraces as a way to reduce cash for storage is in panic mode. "OMG I have to sell my armbrace now before the price drops too low." As when any market crashes everyone that has them tries to sell them and exceeds demand. Which leads to my next reason.
- Demand is lowering. Demand is lowering for 2 reasons:
- Market Saturation. Anyone can farm their own gems now almost for free. There is a small charge of burning a consummable set, but that is made up for with gems. I did it that way. I'm not gonna pay 100k+xx ectos for something I could do myself. And alot of people are the same way.
- Alot of people have their torment weapons. And the surge of people in DoA in shrinking. DoA hs been out what 16-18 months now? So everyone that has characters has gotten them there and gotten their torment weapons. And that's all they wanted so they are done. Of course there is a few new characters entering DoA for the first time but the amount is lowering.
O on a side note 4 to 2 months away from this years wintersday will be the last chance to get alot for that mini polar. Because by that time everyone will wait to see if they can get one for free.
Siadena
Everything you can get in GW (that doesn't get nerfed) will drop in price, end of story. The more people out there farming them, the more appearing out of limbo into the market. So Ursan is a partial cause that was unavoidable, but would have happened anyways, it was just a matter of time.
The biggest problem though was the dupes. Thousands upon thousands of armbraces that were for awhile, only being traded in bulk for rare minis, nerfed weapons, etc. Now they're being sold and traded in smaller quantities everywhere and most the people who have their rare minis and keeping them (cause they have thousands more armbraces or ectos probably). That influx + the inevitable differences ursan and overall DOA farming makes - it was bound to happen and only a matter of time.....
DUPES made that time line shorten though faster then anything.
SIDENOTE - C'mon Anet - add torment weapons to the HOM, that would help pick the market back up on armbraces and gems again
, lol, please o please......
The biggest problem though was the dupes. Thousands upon thousands of armbraces that were for awhile, only being traded in bulk for rare minis, nerfed weapons, etc. Now they're being sold and traded in smaller quantities everywhere and most the people who have their rare minis and keeping them (cause they have thousands more armbraces or ectos probably). That influx + the inevitable differences ursan and overall DOA farming makes - it was bound to happen and only a matter of time.....
DUPES made that time line shorten though faster then anything.
SIDENOTE - C'mon Anet - add torment weapons to the HOM, that would help pick the market back up on armbraces and gems again
, lol, please o please......
Y.T.
ppl should realize by now that the amount of duped armbraces on the market is enormous. back when anet didnt care about dupers where were ppl who were selling stacks of armbraces on amer servers for 10-15e lower than going price - they were explaining that they just bought them all in bulk off japanese farmers... off chinese farmers.... off <insert country name here> farmers - and if u farm DoA 24/7 u still cant get that amount of braces in given time, trust me i know what i'm talking about anet decided to intervene when the amount of dupes exeeded the amount of legit braces by thousands... and theres no way to actually remove all dupes off the market after they've been moved from the banned account. i think anet's attitude towards dupers was 1 of the main reasons all skilled players left DoA and ursans moved in - its possible to do all 4 areas with 2 ppl 6 heroes w/o any irsans in the team, but it dosnt worth wasting ur time to do it... sad isnt it? but oh well, considering that there will be no now content and so many ppl are leaving GW its ok i guess, evrthing will be dirty cheap in no time
anet decided to intervene when the amount of dupes exeeded the amount of legit braces by thousands... and theres no way to actually remove all dupes off the market after they've been moved from the banned account. i think anet's attitude towards dupers was 1 of the main reasons all skilled players left DoA and ursans moved in - its possible to do all 4 areas with 2 ppl 6 heroes w/o any irsans in the team, but it dosnt worth wasting ur time to do it... sad isnt it? but oh well, considering that there will be no now content and so many ppl are leaving GW its ok i guess, evrthing will be dirty cheap in no time
Neo Nugget
Good! I'm glad
They shouldn't be that expensive anyway.
They shouldn't be that expensive anyway.