Confirmed Mini Polar Bears

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

I'm sure many people are wondering just how many Mini Polar Bears there are out there and how many were obtained respectively, during 2007 and 2008. I'm also sure that in order to more accurately discern the drop rate, we need more accurate statistics.

I would like to request ppl that have gotten polar bears, either dropped form the end chest or bought from other players, post a screenshot of their Polar Bear showing the occupied inventory slot, and any other relavent information such as:

1) Number of completed runs(whether you got a MPB or not!-it's still useful information)
2) The Quest completed(If purchased, thats fine too)
3) The Year it was obtained
4) If you will dedicate or sell your MPB

Please refrain from posting your opinions regarding drop rates and such until we can get some real figures and encourage anyone you know with a polar bear to submit a post here or help them to do so if you have an account.

In addition, keep in mind we should try to keep the count as accurate as possible and lets all be honest and not cheat the overall total by using a friend's MPB.

Edit-Many people are posting that this is useless in determining any accuracy per the drop rate. While I wholeheartedly agree that it is useless in determining a perfectly accurate drop rate, I do think that it will give people more useful data in guessing a more accurate drop rate. There is simply too much speculation in the community as to what the drop rate is and if enough data is collected, with or without a MPB included in the numbers, we can at least be more accurate in our guestimates. Worst case scerario...people will at least have an idea of how many runs they might need to complete before getting lucky and that alone would make this thread useful to the masses.

Please refrain from expressing your many negative individual opinions regarding the usefulness of of collected data. It's already been done to death and 1 more comment isn't gonna dissuade the MPB farmers from MPB farming some more.

Collected Statistics
Confirmed Bears(Screenshot) 12
Confirmed Bears(No Screeny) 3
Overall Runs(in this Thread) 29401

Data included up to post#286. If you need update your run count or post screenshot, please do so in a new reply. I have the data organized per user and can simply update it on my end but unless it is post#286 or later, the information will not be included in my spreadsheet.

Note I've excluded dubvious second hand reports or runs and and MPB drop's.

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

1) 337 Runs
2) The Strength of Snow
3) 2008
4) Dedicating+Keeping(If I get another, I'll be selling)

Marverick

Marverick

Forge Runner

Join Date: Aug 2006

R/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lystra View Post
1) 337 Runs
2) The Strength of Snow
3) 2008
4) Dedicating+Keeping(If I get another, I'll be selling)
You seriously counted (and did) that many runs?

Lady Ana Stacia

Lady Ana Stacia

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Jun 2006

Germany

Beware of our Temper [BooT]

Me/

15-20 runs (1st run on Para)
Strength of Snow
2008
Not selling.........

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

I just counted my drops and divided by 5 to determine completed runs. way easier than counting each run as i went along

byteme!

byteme!

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2006

On Earth

W/P

If I found 1 I wouldn't care to tell anyone. I don't see any point. I also don't see the point in this thread. It's gonna take forever to get any adequate amount of data to determine an "estimated" drop rate. By the time you get a conclusion, (which isn't going to happen) Wintersday will be over. Keep in mind there are people like myself who couldn't be bothered to post here if we ever found one and there are also others who don't visit this forum as well. Whatever numbers you manage to gather are just that, a bunch of numbers and nothing more.

To me this is just a thread for phishing. Phishing out to see who the owners are and nothing more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lystra View Post
I believe in accuracy and it seems others do as well.
This thread will give you a better guess or estimation at the drop rate. You're looking for accuracy. Ain't gonna happen.

You're only including the people who GOT a mini polar bear and excluding everyone else who has tried. We're talking huge #'s here, something you are not likely to gather from this thread alone.

Say for example there were 10,000 people right this very second farming for the mini. 1 of them gets the bear and posts here and mentions he tried 50 times. You've excluded 9,999 people and their numbers which do drastically change whatever statistics you're trying to compile.

So to sum this all up. This thread is useless. It will give false data and give people false impressions of there chances of obtaining a mini. The mini polar bear is extremely rare and we may as well leave it at that.

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

Point taken...especially regarding phishing.

Im trying to get numbers from people who do a significant number of runs though as those number will be the most relavent. I myself will be doing alot of.....this...most of the event and while you are definately correct regarding its usefulness this event, it may be more useful next year(if anyone is even playing gw then )

If this thread does anything useful, it might at least help determine a more accurate selling price if people getting bears are ok with reporting it.

Anyhow, if the thread dies, it dies. No one has to post. If your forum account has information relavent to you gw account, i would encourage you not to post if you are concerned about phishing.

That being said, post if you are a serious polar bear farmer and contribute to the effort. Its the people who do ALOT of runs whose data will prove useful if at all.

Sharkman

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2005

Low drop rate+low percentage of players reporting=bad data.

There is no way you'll be able to come up with a reliable figure, unless you could get stats from a majority of the population. And you are ONLY asking for results from people who have had one drop? Person A could have completed SoS 500 times with no results while Person B received one after 10 runs. It is all probability and a very low one at that.

WhiteWasabi

WhiteWasabi

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Mar 2006

KAMADAN AD1

Zealots of Shiverpeak

E/

If I had a polar bear I would keep it quiet and sell it in 3-6 months for triple the going rate.

I did about 400 runs and 0 polar bears. The one I did get I had to buy for a MOUNTAIN of ectos

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

Ok, after this post, I hope I can stop adding fuel to the fire.

I do not expect the results of said postings to be 100% accurate as to determining the drop rate of a polar bear. What it might do at the very least is give a player the confidence that if they did enough runs, would they or not get a polar bear. Has anyone either as a group effort or a single effort, ever done over 1000 runs to determine anything? I think not. Furthermore, I believe that if anyone had the intention of doing that many runs, they would most certainly be rewarded for their efforts.

Anet isn't gonna help and there is a big difference between 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, and 1:100,000.

Let's get one thing straight. No one know how many people are doing the run at any given time. Even if any calculation is determined by farmers posting their results, the end result will be something more accurate than just pure guessing, especially if someone does over 1000 runs and doesn't get a polar bear.

To that claim, I would propose we post our results. If a guild has put together any such study using its alliance and members as participants, that would most certainly help.

Even massive numbers of total runs with no results would be helpful if reported.

If you have relavent information, please post...otherwise, there is no need to post anything and this will just die, at which point, it was in at the very least an attempt to get the gw community together to accomplish something other than griping, no matter how insignificant some of you think it is.

Wish Swiftdeath

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Feb 2007

Mo/W

283 runs approximately and no bear .

Bored as hell, after a couple hours started afking it while enjoying my new itouch...

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

Just got some info from a reliable source.

4 ppl 800 runs=no bears

ty for the info(you know who you are)

pumpkin pie

pumpkin pie

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Jul 2006

behind you

bumble bee

E/

1 run no bear

1 wintersgreen
2 fruitcake
2 shards

woot woot go me

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

Regarding my run quantity.....8 accounts, run to the end, get shards and chest once its done. No fighting. I run them in pairs.

Average run time 2.5m including the end chest. 24 runs/hr approximately.

I assure you I had time to not only sleep, but also to bath,get work done, and even take my mom out to dinner at a nice restaurant Friday night.

Being that it was a weekend, things worked out pretty well. I'll be trying to bear#2 and keep updating my stats as I go along. Good luck to the rest of you!

Xslash

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jun 2008

ranger -- ur thing on running sos is completely wrong

1. 8 minutes -- what are you noob? cupcake eveyr run, essence every run (jk about essence)
2. hahaha at taking the reward -- abandon and fruitcake to rift warden .
3. multiple accounts -- run 2 at a time, hide at door

personally,
i have 4 accounts, running 2 and 2..first 2 complete at 8 minutes afk.
second 2 , run then fight, for 6 minute runs, starting 2 minutes after the first - totally 8 minutes
thats 4 runs in 2 minutes.

4. open chest, dont pick up those drops, go straight for candy cane shards
the other ones are unclaimed


that turn around is like 2.5 minutes/run buddy

even less if u have 8 accounts.

so 8 accounts.. 2 minutes per run ---
30 runs an hour --

11 hours outa 56 hours. leaves u:
30 hours of sleep over 2 days
10 hours to take a couple baths
5 hours to post and laugh at this rangerenemein dude or w/e who thinks that just because it takes him 8 minutes is how long a run takes.

btw - spelling mistakse were juts fro you


oh and just so you dont say something like

blah blah blah --8 accounts? no life
or blah blah blah -- cant play that much, have a job
or qq about anythign else

..if you have a job -- its now what? 20$ for platnium edition (proph+eotn)
whats that 2-4 hours of work for 7 accounts?
lets say 80 hour work week.
300 days a year.
2-4 hours gonna kill you?

11 hours total outa 56 = 20% of the day
4.8 hours a day buddy
even you know you play more than that

and then after that --
u'll qq about having kids and cant play

my one response-- hasnt stopped you from failing b4 has it?

therangereminem

therangereminem

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jan 2007

R/Mo

2 min run not happening

i can do 4 min run thats wuth cupcake , and fighting the end

Xslash

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Jun 2008

not a 2 minute run.

2 minutes per chest

we can use your arbitray 8 minute run logic.

you run two accounts side by side and go back and forth to turn.
thats already 4 minute runs.

now do that multiple times instead of fighting.

on a side note, 4 minutes is just a "tad" faster than your originally stated 8 minute around, isnt it.

also, the next thing u'll qq about is that it doesnt always take 8 minutes for an afk run to finish. and that sometimes it takes up to 12 minutes.

well..nobody ever said we were running at maxmimum efficiency.
lets say -- and hopefully you wont argue this -- that easily possible to run 2 accounts simutainously.

that would mean 2 characters reach door at 2 minutes, or 1 minute each.
if you wanted to run at maximum efficiency with assumption of 12 minute runs

get 12 accounts, run each every 2 minutes, thats 2 chests every two minutes.

and downtime is minimal at maximum efficiency.

so at maximum efficency, and accounts equal to the amount of time it takes to finish a run gives you 1 minute/chest.

now, if you're pro
3 accounts at once would give you 40 second/chest
4 accounts = 30second/chest -- though this would mean you have 24 accounts

AND lastly

you'll secretly qq about why you are so bad.

then qq to some moderator about how thats a personal attack
and even they are so sick of hearing you're qq
they just knuckle under and delete em.

KZaske

KZaske

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Jun 2006

Boise Idaho

Druids Of Old (DOO)

R/Mo

I have only done about 60 runs so far, and have posted some drop info on the real (and offical) wiki. No mini has been reported by anyone there.

RTSFirebat

RTSFirebat

The Humanoid Typhoon

Join Date: May 2005

UK

Servants of Fortuna [SoF]

R/

This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.

A11Eur0

Furnace Stoker

Join Date: Apr 2005

W/

Well the quest itself is a good farm whether you get a polar bear or not...just that it has that extra special incentive to do it as well. I get about the same amount of goodies doing the quest as I do vaettir bombing, without the frustration of a nerfed SF to bring my run down. And if those gold letters pop out...hell i won't need to do any farming ever again.

Joe Fierce

Joe Fierce

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Feb 2007

Disconnect the fascination

LF High End PvE Guild that's not filled with elitists.

R/

Quote:
Originally Posted by RTSFirebat View Post
This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.

not just the events, but everything in the game in general, i recall a day in which video games were played for fun, but it now seems more distant than ever before.

I pwnd U

I pwnd U

God of Spammers

Join Date: Oct 2005

in the middle of a burning cornfield...

Scars Meadows [SMS] (Officer)

Quote:
Originally Posted by RTSFirebat View Post
This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.
Amen RTS, amen. I did about 4 runs, then decided that it was a waste of time and quit. I would rather just enjoy Wintersday then farm for a pixelated minipet that I don't need.

FrAnt1c??

FrAnt1c??

Forge Runner

Join Date: Jan 2007

Belgium

Legion Of Sacred Light [LSL]

Mo/

I propably did around 25 runs or so, no bears

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

Please do not turn this thread into something completely off topic. If you want to make a point, its already made. We don't need to go off on a complete tangent.

Once again. I ask anyone spending significant time farming for polar bears please post your data, either good or bad so others can get a feel of how much effort might be required before they start farming for themselves. TY in advance and gl

Fril Estelin

Fril Estelin

So Serious...

Join Date: Jan 2007

London

Nerfs Are [WHAK]

E/

Quote:
Originally Posted by RTSFirebat View Post
This polar Bear business is getting daft now. I remember the good old days when people simply just ENJOYED Wintersday without obsessing over a bunch of Pixels shaped like a Polar Bear. The sad thing is there are people out there who will do nothing else for the next week or so but do the Snowman Lair quests over and over again.
+1

I wish that Anet would have said upfront if they've put some kind of antifarm code in place, so that (IF, I repeat, IF they did it) people wouldn't waste their time at this time of the year. It's a loose-loose situation here, people loose time except the few lucky (gratz to them ) and become angry, thus making Anet's business less durable.

I wish they had Wintersday quests to do in parties, and special AB events. But, well, we're here, reading stories of farmers rolling in the fastest/most efficient way The Strength Of Snow, on multiple accounts, in the hope that they get XXXX ectos that will allow them to buy the uber-rare MiniFrog(TM) that they'll resell at XXXXXectos making X0000 ectos profit that they'll then use to ...etc...etc...

I personally enjoy practicing dodging, despite the relatively high lag, and the whole landscape of Winter throughout the various places. And Snowball arena!

The Grentches have been routed and Wintersday is saved! Please take these gifts to spread joy and happiness around the world this Wintersday.

RTSFirebat

RTSFirebat

The Humanoid Typhoon

Join Date: May 2005

UK

Servants of Fortuna [SoF]

R/

Hey don't get my wrong, congrats to anyone who gets one. But hey lets not all forget events are also about fun not just profit

Reflect

Reflect

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: May 2007

Varna,Bulgaria

Glob Of Ectospasm [GoE]

W/

profit is fun imo!

Sparda

Sparda

Lion's Arch Merchant

Join Date: Nov 2006

The Netherlands

N/

220 runs
Around 22 hours later not much nightsleep
No MPB
Done it with my necro monk rit and ele.
If im not getting one with these kind of runs it's never gonna drop for me atleast.
And it's not worth it anymore i even became ill getting it.
I'm a fool that i even gave it a try.
Happy wintersday to the once who claim to get one.

stretchs

stretchs

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Sep 2007

Untimely Demise [Err了] - SOHK

about 65 runs so far, no mini polar bear. Been not too boring, too lazy to run multiple accnts. Am sitting on my couch with my laptop relaxing and enjoying the wintersday experience

FalconDance

FalconDance

Jungle Guide

Join Date: Sep 2005

...deep within the sylvan splendor...

Order of the Migrating Coconuts [ALBA]

~50 forays into the SoS dungeon so far and no whiff of mini polar bear . Husband enjoys the Straight to the Heart one more and has done it about the same, but no polar bear. I will admit that the drop rate of chards is much higher for him in that dungeon, but I don't enjoy it as much.

Chards = presents for me. He's selling his to fund a couple new characters' future armor/skills needs. Each to their own. We're not obssessing over ursas nor are we seriously farming. If a bear drops for one of us, we'll both be totally excited, but otherwise Just having fun .

Gun Pierson

Gun Pierson

Forge Runner

Join Date: Feb 2006

Belgium

PIMP

Mo/

Quote:
Originally Posted by joea64 View Post
Sorry for yet another offtopic post, but my own take on this is that if there's anything I'm going to be farming for this Wintersday, it's superb Charr carvings. I can trade in 2 for one rainbow candy cane (5% party morale boost) each at EotN. As a PvE'er, to me that's a lot more important than a mini-pet that doesn't really do anything. (I did get the Jingle Bear for my ranger, but she hadn't gotten a pet yet, so...) And I'm collecting as many CCS as I can so I can trade them in to the Wintersday Gift Collector before the event's end, too.

-Joe-
Yes Rainbow Candy Canes are what wintersday is about for me too. I play the strength of the snow quest though, to get ccs to trade in for presents. I sell eggnogs and party stuff that comes from the chest and the presents to buy rainbow cc. On top, that chest and those presents drop them too. I see the polar bear as an extra bonus if it would drop, but I'm not doing the runs for the mini.

EDIT: Did around 20 runs atm.

Aussie Boy

Aussie Boy

Alcoholic

Join Date: Mar 2007

Australia

W/

190 runs I have done now and I give up. no bear for me.
The Strength of Snow.
2090 shards at average 11 per run.
to many chest items i didn't tally up.
No bear

The drop rate stinks imo from reading posts here on guru
sure it's stated as a rare drop but why cant they say the are programing oh i dunno 100 or 200 per event? "can they do that"
Then thats some extra motivation.
Don't get me wrong congrats to the lucky few that became instant millionaires.
It is just a game and pixels in the end.
Think I'll stick to the "Rumor" I hear in game about saving 250 shards for end of event for a polar bear
and anet having the last laugh on us all this time. LOL

Horace Slughorn

Horace Slughorn

Wilds Pathfinder

Join Date: Oct 2008

Experientia Docet [OHX], Trinity of the Ascended [ToA], We Gat Dis [HRUU]

W/

Hey Lystra, its me Darker. ZOMG Congrats on your bear! I told you my leet hax would work for anyone. Hopefully I'll see you in-game today, and I can congratulate you in person!

To the skeptics, I dont doubt Lystra did that many runs (and more including failed runs, however rare). I can't think of a more hard-working and deserving owner of a cute lil' bear.

To the community at large, I might as well announce that I also got a Mini Polar Bear this wintersday I lucked out on the second day the rift wardens were in town. I did Strength of Snow ~20 times until I saw those glorious golden letters. I've attached a screen, which shows her undedicated. I put her in my HoM yesterday though, and plan on keeping it.

Best luck to those still hunting, but don't lose your head over it

If anyone wants to see it, just look for the most empty LA district, and you'll find me running presents to Scrappy Jim

maraxusofk

maraxusofk

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Aug 2005

San Francisco, UC Berkeley

International District [id多], In Soviet Russia Altar Caps You [CCCP], LOL at [eF]

W/

1) 9001 Runs
2) The Strength of Hoes
3) 2012
4) Trashing

AceeBlueEagle

AceeBlueEagle

Frost Gate Guardian

Join Date: Dec 2005

ASH -Ashes of Humanity

R/

About 50 runs thusfar. I typically do this about 5-10x per day before I give up.

They should have addressed this desire for a mini before this season rolled around again and made it differently obtainable. The statistics on this puppy must be extremely low as no one in our Alliance has gotten one yet.

Why couldn't they have made a variation of it as a quest reward or somesuch? Even with green and red bells, I don't care. Who knows, maybe they will surprise us and give them out in the event. But I doubt it...

Cale Roughstar

Cale Roughstar

Desert Nomad

Join Date: Jan 2007

Canada

Guy In Real Life [GIRL]

W/E

Done close to 100 runs, (havent kept track)
Going out of town for a week, guess Im not likely to get one this year
I have been doing it two accounts at a time, one runs, idles, other runs then idles, I have a bit of downtime, but I use it to chat, browse guru or read a book. The quest itself may be a grind, but the thrill of opening that chest, fingers crossed, praying for the bear that I can sell for over 9000 ectos, makes it all worthwhile. Oh, and lots of CC shards = profit!

Grats to those who got the bears so far. I envy you.

FengShuiDove

FengShuiDove

Forge Runner

Join Date: Sep 2007

Trinity of the Ascended [ToA]

A/

About 25 runs of Strength of Snow, no bear, but that's fine. Luckily, it's a great CCS farm either way, which prevents me from having to do the quests which I consider extremely long for what you get out of them. I'll be switching between Vaettir, this, and RA when I get bored of killing animals over the next week or so.

Pretty stoked about passing another 1,000 mark on both Sweet and Party titles. Getting a bear to me is worth about 3 titles, 3 Armbraces, 6 Destroyer weapons, and bragging righs. Nothing more.

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

First off, to everyone that contributed their results, tyvm. Let's keep those coming.

If even 20 people post their results, either good or bad, and do 500 or more runs, we will have significant data to at least develop a model of expected results when applied the the game as a whole.

Any alliance, guild, or group studys of any kind regarding this mini..please post your results...ongoing or otherwise. TYVM for all who have contributed thus far.

....and that's something. It's not 100% accurate, but it is, to repeat myself, more accurate than pure speculation.

To address those who are arguing over "enjoying wintersday" vs. "farming polar bears", please stop. Start a new thread and share your opinions there. This thread was intended for the people who are farming polar bears or simply farming the quest and crossing their fingers. We didnt ask for your opinion on what we are doing with our spare time and you certainly can stop repeating yourselves. I mean that in the nicest way. I'm not trying to start up an argument. Just please take your criticisms elsewhere.

Grats Darker on your polar bear. I got my own now so i don't have ta drool over yours now

Once again, gl all. Lunch break is over.

p.s I got to 400 runs last night ftr

Lystra

Ascalonian Squire

Join Date: Feb 2008

[OHX]Experientia Docet

Rt/

Normally, i don't even entertain ignorant posts but i gotta make an exception just this once....

Orange Milk....if you don't think people work 80 hour weeks 300 days out of the year, you must be either very young or very lazy..maybe both.

Personally, as a self employed individual, I've pulled consistent 80+ hour work weeks for most of the year, especially during my first few years of getting my business going. Maybe that's why I can do stuff like this and not get burnt out so easy, but I assure you, if I can, alot of other people can and probably do as well.

Point is...go flame somewhere else. XSlash does run 4 accounts. I know he does, cause not only do I run 8 accounts, but I've known him for quite some time and well, i KNOW he does. Just delete your post. It merely makes you look stupid

namhvo

namhvo

Krytan Explorer

Join Date: Mar 2006

Norway

[ToA]

W/

I have done about 200 runs on 4 accounts, just a bunch of cc shards and stuff.