GW2. Was it a mistake to announce?

I'm not going to get into a debate of which potential MMORPG will be better.

All I was saying it's a bit premature to call SW:TOR the "NEW BEST MMO".

Plus, I have a healthy dose of cynicism with any post that starts: "Ive been playing GW since it cameout and never took a "break". I say hell with GW2... "

Really? devilnuker has been playing GW straight for 4 years, but "to hell with GW2"?

Oooookaaaaaay....

And there's a big difference between saying "I'll buy GW2" and saying "GW2 is the BEST NEW MMORPG!"

I have no idea how good GW2 will be, but I know its the MMORPG I'm most excited about. If SW:TOR was "free to play" I might consider it, but I've been burned too many times on pay-to-play MMORPGs...

I was extremely excited when they announced GW2 but, yes, I do think they did so prematurely. I've kind of gotten past being excited about it and am kind of just tired of hearing everyone complain about the lack of information. I'll get excited all over again when beta is announced, when the release date is announced and when I can finally pre-order with a definitive release date. I'll be buying GW2 without a doubt. But, I still wish they would have waited.

They probably should have not announced plans to have a beta in 2008, that's for sure.

But they had to announce something, we were all expecting to hear info on the next campaign (Utopia).

ArenaNet was stuck: either announce too early and piss off people when no new info for GW2 came out, or not announce anything (not really an option).

Still, there are some valid criticisms: Anet could show us concept art, some more ideas, etc. I think you're right though, once that stuff starts coming out, people will get excited, and some of the pissing and moaning will stop (not all of it, obviously).

I agree that since they decided to go ahead and announce it so far ahead of time they should have at least had something prepared to release every once in a while. Even small press releases about what kinds of features we can look forward to and how things are going.

It's the only thing that keeps me playing GW now knowing that GW2 will be out someday lol.

I tend to agree, Shrimz, but it is interesting. ANet releases nothing about the pulse of their game. Their only "advertisement" as to life is X-fire (which is a pretty good one, IMHO). So are they really getting anything from people like you and me that play because GW2 is coming? I'd love to see a marketing perspective on this.

What do you mean by "getting anything?" Do you mean money, or what?

I'd like to see numbers on how well the Store is doing... I know I've bought $30 worth of "updates" since April.

But in terms of "marketing", I think the number of threads about GW2 (albeit, mostly complaints) is a good indication that there is still interest about GW2...

I guess, if not good for Anet, it's at least good for guru. (I wonder if Inde would be willing to discuss traffic patterns on the site during "downtimes").

Like does my playing Guild Wars still have some "worth" to ANet from a marketing standpoint? Are their current sales stemming significantly from current players? And, I am not talking about forumgoers (who don't have to play GW). I am talking about people in the game.

Well, having a base of loyal players is obviously a good thing for GW2. But I think GW2 will bring back players who have quit / never played as well.

I'd like to see how many unique accounts GW has, not total sales across 3 Campaigns and one expansion.

What are the X-fire numbers, BTW?

xfire.com > today's top games

guild wars is consistently in the top ten

You're comparing a free game that originally cost $39 in 2005 versus subscription games like WoW that cost people a total of $960 so far?

Gee wiz I wonder why Blizzard, who's received $960 from every player, can afford to release content updates all the time versus ArenaNET that's only received $39.

If you compare GW to Diablo, Warcraft, and Starcraft, other free games, you quickly realize not even Blizzard releases free content for their games after release, let alone 4 years after release. Blizzard pumps out a tiny useless patch every 18 months, but that is hardly worthy of being considered content.

Well there is still lots to do for me...

8,760 GW players vs 101,536 WoW players.... geez. That's unbelievable.

Is X-fire US only? Is there anyway to figure out the number of WoW players vs the number of X-fire WoW player? That could give a rough estimate of player to xfire ratio, and from there we could estimate GW active players.

For reference: current Warhammer 40k: DoW (an RTS game) is 2,207

Warhammer: Age of Reckoning: 2,037

Age of Conan: 1,735

Xfire numbers are better for comparing a game to its own xfire numbers at an earlier date and looking for large changes; e.g. Warhammer xfire numbers started high and then dropped off a cliff. And of course it's still assuming that xfire users are a good proxy for a game's entire playerbase (not strictly true, but may actually be true enough to still be a useful indicator, but I don't think anyone knows for sure).

I think this man knows a bit about what he is saying.

The bit that your missing as I have said in another thread (and in threads before this) is that A-net are owned by NCSoft, do you honestly think that NCSoft will allow one of their subsidiaries to release a beta to a new MMO (assuming GW2 is an actual MMO this time) when they are about to release their new flagship MMO

Aion is due to release on 25th September, it is an almost dead certainty that they will have a clause to supoerceed on releases, meaning that NCSofts flagship takes precedence in release, assuming this is the case you would expect such a clause to have a 12 month period, so I wouldn't expect to see any type of beta or fully fleshed information to hit until the latter end of 2010.

A-net are a very small fish and owned to NCSoft, Aion is the money train for NCSoft so GW2 whilst it may be released will simply be told to wait until they have established the market for Aion (which is a fantastic game btw)

In short expect nothing for a year and you won't be disappointed (other than with a-net normal lack of competency with updates etc)

Why would you assume a 12 month blackout?

True, I don't expect any GW info until after Aion is released in the West, but once Aion is out there, there's no reason to keep stealth on GW2.

You could have an open beta late this year or early next year, and release the game in April, 2010. (NOTE: Not saying this will happen, just saying it's a possibility.)

There's no reason to wait 12 months!

I also take issue with "A-net are a very small fish and owned to NCSoft".

While it's true that Guild Wars currently only accounts for 3% of NCSoft profits, this is an aberration. http://www.gamespot.com/news/6209476.html

A year ago Guild Wars was 12% (CoH/CoV was 7%) http://www.gamespot.com/news/6190983.html

Historically, it's been around 14%. http://www.gamespot.com/news/6170305.html


While not an important as Lineage, Guild Wars is an important part of NCSoft profits, and is their best known Western game.

Hence it is a little fish 14% is not a substantial stake at all and 3% will be it's representation at best going forward as GW is dying not growing.

the reason for 12 months? simple, not only do they release but will expect to establish a playerbase before allowing any potential competition from one of their own stable

There is no chance they will release Aion and then a month later say OK guys you can release your Beta's now, they will want an established player base with bought gametime to recoup the outlay of marketing and developing the game in the first instance.

it is simple economics and marketing analysis, the consumer is still provided with the end product, monies are recouped and an establish monetary base secured, then they can let others open the doors to their offerings in the secure knowledge of an established playerbase, they may do this as early as 6 months but I would find that doubtful and find 12 months to be more plausible.

Seems extreme to me.

If companies followed a 12 month blackout before they released 2 games, nothing would ever be released...

For example, to you think Blizzard will wait 12 months between releasing StarCraft 2 and Diablo 3?

6 months doesn't seem doubtful to me... it gives time to establish the Aion marketshare, but at the same time doesn't leave ArenaNet hanging in the wind. (I'm sure NCSoft wants some money to come from ArenaNet after paying for 3 years of development for Guild Wars 2!)


The other point is that even though these are both NCSoft published MMOs, that's where the similarity ends.

Aion is a monthly fee, grind-heavy, item-based typical MMO (from what I hear).

We don't know how much grind GW2 will have, but if it's anything like GW1, grind will be optional. It will be free of monthly fees. In short, these 2 MMOs will probably not be in direct competition, and for those who like both, they can buy both.

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of users once these games come out: My guess would be that Aion is going to continue to be very popular in the East, while GW2 will be more popular in the West. Obviously, some overlap, but that's just my take.

They announced it to early, but i can understand why they did it and as much as i hate it, there is nothing i can do to control it. I expect Anet to give more information out after Aion hits, but this being a company that lies a lot, i don't expect to here anything GW2 related till around the time the first book comes out.

Ouch. True, Anet might have mistated a few things in the past, but "lies a lot"?

That's a pretty heavy charge!

Eh, your right Mordakai, lies a lot is to harsh, they have lies to us a few times is more what i should use.

SC2 and D3 are completely different games. Buying one does not preclude someone from buying the other. It's much less likely for a person to buy and play two different MMOs at the same time. I don't think they're going to wait 12 months to release any GW2 info, I'm just saying that that's not a valid comparison.

I don't think that 12 months is a well thought out ideal. Look at Cryptic, they are releasing pricing plans for Champions Online that will include Star Trek Online beta access in the future. I have a feeling that on or around December will start getting a ton of STO news. Same company, similar product, seemingly no black out date there.

Cryptic hardly has a history of always making the right choices.

Indeed. (For those that don't know: how about paying $200 for a lifetime subscription to Champions Online available only until September 1. Champions Online releases after that. Buy before you try.)

They weren't able to deliver what was promised

True, but the crossover is there...

I would also argue that Guild Wars and Aion are completely different MMos.

How long do you think NCSoft is willing to spend money on GW2 development before demanding some sort of profit? Especially if the game is ready for Beta?

Like I said, I can see 6 months, I just can't see NCSoft sitting on a marketable product for a YEAR.

(This is, of course, assuming Guild Wars 2 is somewhat ready.... if it actually has a few more years of development time to go, this whole conversation is moot).

Good point. ANet has 170 employees. That's a huge chunk of change each month and NCSoft will likely want more return on investment. Also NCSoft has been pretty solidly convinced that Aion is not cannibalizing their market. I seriously doubt it is going to significantly affect the people that would play Aion, and GW2's business model is such that playing GW2 and a sub-MMO is very possible to most consumers.

It wasn't a completely bad idea to announce Guild Wars 2 but they had to tell people why we had a Hall of Monuments and why we were attaining titles.

The problem is that Arenanet has not given us anything substanial since Nightfall and now we fans are being told we have to wait until Aion is done monoplizing the gaming market at the moment and yes, Aion is one of the reasons why people will be leaving Guild Wars. I'm sure once we get past the waiting stage everyone will be excited about Guild Wars 2 but the fans atleast deserve to know what has been going on. Noone expects Guild Wars 2 to be released tomorrow but atleast learn how to keep fans in the loop.

What did you expect have you seen Anets and Ncsofts track record??? They could get rid of guildwars any second. You think just cause you paid once that they wouldnt?? Took 4 years to get the ecomony descent in guildwars. Do you remember Tabulsa also that stupid car game or something it was tanks cant remember. Right now NcSofts main concern is Aion.

Actually its not

NC Soft has a lot more on its cards than Aion, but they also know that Aion will be brilliantly in the Asian market, but they are counting on GW2 for the western market as it was more of a hit than they originally thought and the rearranging of NCWest and ANets head guys now running that legitimizes ANets safety in the market and on NC Softs books

I'm in a Dilemma right now.

I don't know if I should believe that GW2 is coming out the said current Beta release dates and expect the real game within a year or so. Or believe that the project is abandoned, and the GW franchise will slowly descend into the deep end.

Please, I need evidence. I need to believe what is true and what is not. I really hope that they didn't abandon GW2, because I want to keep playing it. The franchise is so fantastic and having it end so horribly, on a major cliff hanger and them say so much about it in videos and whatnot then not saying anything at all for the longest time. Let's not forget the new classes and professions.

GW has so many fans, and many people stopped playing the current game for the upcoming and I'm afraid that there might not be a second.

I'm convinced, but not enough to believe that Guild Wars is truly done for.

Please help me out. I know it's just a game, but it's a great game and I've met so many great people on. I don't want to see it end like this.

Guild Wars was set up as a casual game but they put a lot of work in it and is subscription free. This has had a few consequences.

Because of the expansive world and lore the game has attracted a lot of players who by now have put in 5000+ hours. Not what they expected.
Because it is subscription free it opened up the idea of playing a MMO style game to a lot of people and so people started to want more from the game...things that the game was not set up for.
Guild Wars 2 is a direct consequence of what happened with GW1 and it is a necessity for Anet to do it and do it right.
By the time that a lot of GW players have stopped and started playing other games they also will no longer be upset about GW1 ending. What they will need to do is come up with a superb game and do some good advertising. I think by the time that happens a lot of people will be happy to reconsider and try it out after all.
In spite of everything else Anet knows that the GW players are aware of the coming of GW2 and will notice it when it does come out. This already helps there advertising campaign.
The real problem with Anet has simply been their communications department. They haven't quite figured out how to communicate with a huge fanbase that wants things. It then because easy to promise things you can't make happen.
Look at their latest attempt: content updates every 3-4 months. It's been 4 months now. They really need to be smarter about those things. It's a balance between not making promises you can't keep but being aware of your capacities so you can predict better so you can at least give people something to look forward too.

All in all though I think it was good that they announced GW2 but the mistake they made was thinking that they could do it a lot more quickly than they actually can and sacrificing the current game in the process. I would think it wisdom would've been a longer deadline and more support for GW1...they made that mistake and are I think aware that it was a mistake to do it but you can't turn back time on it.
Still, in the end announcing that there would be a GW2 was unavoidable and necessary for the long term.

I believe when they announced GW2, at that time, it was their intention to have it ready for the end of this year. With the collapse of Tabula Rasa on the horizon they quickly stepped up their development of Aion (p2p), taking resources away from GW2 project.

We're all assuming once Aion is up and running that we will hear some GW2 updates and maybe even a trailer after its settled. My fear is that they will then turn their attention toward Blade & Soul which is also likely to be p2p (i've seen some beta stuff on it but not my thing so not upto speed on that one like Aion). Trouble is they're in danger of breaching their forecasts and suffering both a shareholder and gw backlash

I have been seriously considering Aion myself (nearly 10k gw hours here) but heres the dilemma...monthly subscriptions, wasting a year on a p2p game just to drop when gw2 comes out. Blade & Soul style of play looks very creative but not my style

Rather than adding new things like z quests and wintersday type events in summer??? I'd like to see them add more dungeon/elite areas such as SF and ToPK which wouldn't take as much work as you might think. That said z quests have atleast been successful in reintegrating old and new players. We complain that we've been there and done it and bored, but reality is, sometimes there is a element of nostalgic fun to going back and doing a mission you haven't done for ages

While i think they were a little early in announcing gw2 it has been long enough now for us to start kicking up a fuss about not hearing anything else

I agree with BogusDude; it has been long enough... we need to hear something, ANYthing, and right now.

I don't know how many hours I've put into GW1 now, never kept up with it. But, I've been playing it since it came out. I have 2 accounts, both with all campaigns. The first announcement of GW2 and GWEN came right at a time when we (my guildmates and myself) were beginning to stray away from GW. Some had already gone to World of Warcraft. It just got too boring to play anymore (possibly because we all spent so much time with it, we burned out). I finally ended up getting a WoW account myself so I could still hang with my friends (It's fun, but it's not GW).

It's sad to me that we haven't heard any solid news about GW2 in over a year (last I remember was the excellent article that was written in German, later translated to English and posted on the GW2 Wiki page). I know we're beating a dead horse here, but I do wish ANET would throw us a bone. I agree with the person who said in another post that ANET should show us some evidence of whats being done. But not because I don't believe they're working on GW2 because I do, but players need to know what they're waiting for. They need to know that the wait is going to be worthwhile.

To ANET: I am an older player (42 to be exact)... I'm not getting any dam younger folks. Wait too much longer and I might finally grow out of these games altogether. Then you've lost one customer! (how many others that are my age might you lose to time?) Seriously... this is what you need to do: put together a fresh set of screenshots, some commentary, and at best, possibly a short teaser trailer. Then, be bold enough to give us some time frame to look forward to (like all the other studios do!).

And for those who bash people because they keep bringing this stuff up... leave em alone. They're only reaching out. THAT IS ALL WE HAVE at this point.

Sorry if I've said too much here... peace and good luck in your adventures

What I want to know is....where are they getting the $$$ to make two MMOs from?

I expect that the creation of GW2 will take quiet awhile if the cash flow is intermittent.

What I personally don't understand is, why announce a beta for 2008 and then go into complete dark mode about any info what so ever? I mean, if they announced a beta test, they either had a working build of the game ready or knew they could hit the beta mark by the time beta testing starts.

What the hell happened? Tabula Rasa, Aion?

Are they doing a complete rewrite right now or just polishing the "original" GW2 code base they had planned for late 2008?

This is what I would like to know.

Didn't Tabula Rasa tank?

That is not the point, point is at that time of its release it would complete with GW2 beta and propably loose subscribers to "waiting for GW2" and be more likely to tank.

Which is propapbly same reason we will not see much of GW2 at least untill Aion gets going strong.

It simply makes no sense for ncsoft to compete with itself, other companies are competition enough.