Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaleban
So you must be an absolute tool, since you can't seem to fathom the actual point of the whole argument.
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You have no counters to what I said, so you hide behind "LOLfail" because you do not dare quote what I actually said, and you turn to cheap insults. And change the subject, because you can't defend the previous nonsense you wrote.
As I said before: Show me the "promises" that you think A-Net made about their business model. And how they then deviated from said promises.
You can't, can you?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaleban
What I can do, and what every other business and economic forecaster on the planet can do,
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You consider yourself a business and economic forecaster? Dude, I think you will be more successful if you concentrate on comedy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaleban
is take a series of precedents, combined with good business sense and market savvy, and extrapolate likely scenarios for future profits.
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The precedents are:
GW has had microtransactions pretty much since it first started.
Stuff sold by microtransactions offer only convenience or cosmetics.
None of the stuff sold by microtransactions makes ingame characters richer, or more powerful.
You take these precedents and, instead of predicting that GW2 will follow a similar pattern, you come up with this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaleban
rather soon, to even PLAY ANet games in conjunction with NCSoft, you'll have to buy the base package of X, and if you even want a chance in areas outside the starting noob zone, you'll need to buy Y, and once you get to Y, you'll HAVE to buy Z or every monster will kill you, and then A and B will be necessary to buy in the online store for you to even be competitive in PvP, then C, D and E... etc.
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And you really think that's a reasonable prediction? What precedent do you have for making such a mighty leap - from only paying for pretties and convenience... to paying just to have "a chance in areas outside the starting noob zone" or remaining "competitive"?
It's possible, in a theoretical worst-case-scenario kind of way. But is it likely to actually happen? No, of course not. If A-net "extrapolates" the success of their microtransactions... they'll do it by adding more of the same type of cosmetic or convenience items (there is precedent in GW for this). People who want them, buy them - ANet makes some money. People who don't want them, don't buy them -
and their gameplay is unaffected. Everybody wins.
They won't start charging you to progress in the game, or to stay competitive (there is no GW precedent for this). Why not? Because taking things to that extreme would turn away too many customers - the customers who like GW because there are no monthly fees, and because their gameplay is unaffected by which microtransactions they choose to pay for (if any). If ANet makes it so their gameplay IS affected by which microtransactions they pay for... they're likely to turn their backs. And I believe that's a LOT of customers. Goodbye win-win.
Even allowing for theatrical exaggeration, your prediction is plain crazy.