gz steve...
wow i did only like 15ish runs so boooring zzzz
Mini Polar Bear Drops
My New Name
Malice Black
Conspiracy theories...lol
It'll drop with the same rate as last year. So maybe another ~50 will enter the game.
I LOL hard when I see people spamming wtb MPB @ 300-500e. Silly dreamers.
It'll drop with the same rate as last year. So maybe another ~50 will enter the game.
I LOL hard when I see people spamming wtb MPB @ 300-500e. Silly dreamers.
Riot Narita
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Minami Kaori
53rd run?
I wonder if it's going to be like last year again... Namely, if you don't get a drop by your 100th run, then don't even bother. |
Maybe we have to wait 25 mins before opening the chest (notice the 30 minute candy in the screenshot is close to running out)
Painbringer
I will give it 4 no more still have a crap load of candy shards form last year
balordoman
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hissy
Noooooo, I already passed 100 runs and no bear ;_;
Maybe we have to wait 25 mins before opening the chest (notice the 30 minute candy in the screenshot is close to running out) |
btw around 55run near to complete 4th stack of shards, no one bear ç_ç i want it for my collection ç_ç
Minami
Well, today is my birthday ^_^ Hope I get lucky and one will drop for me 
I adore them little cuties
I adore them little cuties
Beverly heals
Quote:
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Originally Posted by itachimizu
pictures to prove it or it never happened(which i dont think it did w/a .00037% chance 3 in a row would be ungodly)
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Which is still low anyway
Riot Narita
Quote:
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Originally Posted by balordoman
hem.. the green rock is only 10 min ^^"
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Thalador Doomspeaker
Could someone give a link to GWx2 and tell me how to use it, please? Also, I would appreciate if someone could give me hints on how to run the quest properly while using the software. Thanks in adavance! And good luck for all those who are still fighting against the odds (like me).
HawkofStorms
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Minami Kaori
53rd run?
I wonder if it's going to be like last year again... Namely, if you don't get a drop by your 100th run, then don't even bother. |
So... flip a coin 8 times and it comes up heads 8 times.
Does that mean that the odds of getting tails the 9th time is any less then the previous 8? No.
Anyway, we all knew the odds were low. And they'd have to be. If the odds weren't low, these things wouldn't be valuable (and 99% of people complaining just want this thing so they can become instant millionares, the other 1% are the nutso hoarders and completionists who will actually pay 1000e for a mini).
Minami
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HawkofStorms
????
So... flip a coin 8 times and it comes up heads 8 times. Does that mean that the odds of getting tails the 9th time is any less then the previous 8? No. Anyway, we all knew the odds were low. And they'd have to be. If the odds weren't low, these things wouldn't be valuable (and 99% of people complaining just want this thing so they can become instant millionares, the other 1% are the nutso hoarders and completionists who will actually pay 1000e for a mini). |
The odds are ridiculously low.
I don't belong to either "group" you mentioned, like I said before, I want one of those bears because they are super cute, I would not sell them, but I also would never pay the amount of money they go for, even if I could.
I'd be just as happy a camper(if I got one) if they were white minis and a common drop.
Right now though, I am happy for all the CC shards I'm getting
texeasons
I've been playing for over 4 years, and just bought my first FoW armor. I don't farm ecto. So I obviously don't have the money to pay 1000e for one, but if I did get one I wouldn't sell it either. I want one to have. Did over 500 runs last year, no bear, don't know how many this year, stopped counting. Still no bear and over 2 stacks of shards. And sorry if that person I took a screen shot of wasn't really selling for 550e. People said they hadn't seen it and thought I would do them a favor to show that it was in the party search window.
Rexion
I don't know how I was able to farm this run 200+ times last year?
I can barely stay online for more than 15 minutes this year.
I can barely stay online for more than 15 minutes this year.
Marvel-Kid
80 or so runs, ZIP.... *cires* gimme a bear! I have a family (of one) to feed!!! lol
Aussie Boy
Well coming up to 150 runs now and no bear I'm sure last year i got one in under 100 runs
but id have to search old threads and cant be a$$ rightnow.
have made almost 150,000xp for my survivor and thats why i'm doing the runs
not just for a MPB drop.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
but id have to search old threads and cant be a$$ rightnow.
have made almost 150,000xp for my survivor and thats why i'm doing the runs
not just for a MPB drop.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
upier
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Minami Kaori
Well, today is my birthday ^_^ Hope I get lucky and one will drop for me
I adore them little cuties |
Minami
Thank you very much Upier ^_^
Windf0rce
I did around 25-30 runs on the sunday (IIRC) and only around 5 yesterday (my guild keeps dragging me to the UW, lol). No bear.
I'll keep doing a few casual runs, I'm not on vacation so there isn't a lot of free time to run, but I shall try a few more.
PS: And happy b-day Kaori, best of luck with the bear.
I'll keep doing a few casual runs, I'm not on vacation so there isn't a lot of free time to run, but I shall try a few more.
PS: And happy b-day Kaori, best of luck with the bear.
isildorbiafra
Did 60 runs sofar. No bear; but i have made almost 6 stacks of shards.
imnotyourmother
woot I got a mINI Bear,,
not..
hummmm
drop rate of 0.000035%? I think that hell will freeze over before i get a mini
not..
hummmm
drop rate of 0.000035%? I think that hell will freeze over before i get a mini
Kumu Honua
133 runs so far. No bear.
2574 cc's though. Can't complain too much. Other than being bored out of my mind with the quest.
2574 cc's though. Can't complain too much. Other than being bored out of my mind with the quest.
Mustache Mayhem
Quote:
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Originally Posted by deejaysteve
Finally got one! About 300 runs last year, 53th run this year. (know from snowman summoners)
I'm not good in posting pictures,but give it a try: |
.......... that's what I'm talkin bout willis
snoozer80
I made 46 runs so far, and no MPB. I will be trying until WIntersday final. If I wont get it to cheer me up I'll open all of my 100 Gifts from Nicholas i keep for special moment.
isildorbiafra
110 runs sofar since the event strated. 9 stacks of shards; but still no MPB. Tomorrow i'll give it another go.
go cubs
4 stacks of shards now, about...80ish runs...i keep tellin myself that I'll get one lol...someone stop me
Divine Ashes
I'm up to around 70 runs or so....5 stacks of shards...no luck so far but theres plenty of time left until the finale
Gli
200 runs using 2 rather small GW windows on my secondary monitor while I'm working on my primary. Of course, no bear, but the 14 stacks of shards alone are going to be worth the extremely effortless semi-afk farming, not to mention the 1,000 consumables.
Of course, no bear, but the 14 stacks of shards alone are going to be worth the extremely effortless semi-afk farming, not to mention the 1,000 consumables.
XyphoidProcess
Quote:
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Originally Posted by deejaysteve
Finally got one! About 300 runs last year, 53th run this year. (know from snowman summoners)
I'm not good in posting pictures,but give it a try: |
Rexion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by XyphoidProcess
Did you seriously get that polar bear on your 53th run?
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the person that does 353 runs has the same drop rate as the person that does 17 runs.
it's all luck.
XyphoidProcess
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rexion
extreme luck.
the person that does 353 runs has the same drop rate as the person that does 17 runs. it's all luck. |
texeasons
almost at 6 stacks of shards now, no bear 
. I just want one to have. I won't sell it if I get one, why can't anet let me see those wonderful gold letters pop out of the chest?
. I just want one to have. I won't sell it if I get one, why can't anet let me see those wonderful gold letters pop out of the chest?
Martin Alvito
Quote:
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Originally Posted by XyphoidProcess
Did you seriously get that polar bear on your 53th run?
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Most of the people that did 500-1000 runs never got one.
You can infer that the drop chance is tiny, that the vast majority of players do a small number of runs and that only a few players do a large number of runs. In short, it's all luck.
XyphoidProcess
I saw the thread from last year and there seemed to be a lot more drops. Did the drop rate decrease?
Martin Alvito
I'd bet that there are fewer people farming it for two reasons:
- We now know that the drop rate is terrible
- Fewer players than there were last year.
That would explain the observation.
- We now know that the drop rate is terrible
- Fewer players than there were last year.
That would explain the observation.
Gli
If my in-game social circle is the least bit representative, Martin is right. Last year, practically everyone on my guild and friends list was stubbornly trying to beat the odds and get one. This year, I'm the only one.
texeasons
I farmed last year, over 500 runs. I would do it again if I had the time. Close to 100 runs now, more than 7 stacks of shards. Still no bear.
Tar Ionwe
I've probably done the run around 100 times and no bear but I don't mind it really, I like all the candy canes you get. Those will come in handy for those fail PuGs for FoWSC lol.
texeasons
I can't say that I don't mind not getting one, cause I really want one. But all the Wintersday treats do give a buffer to make not getting one a bit easier. Haven't figured out if I want to sell the shards or trade for gifts.
disarm76
Well, I surely am farming less since I got one last year. Sold for 1600e which good part was stolen when I got hacked
XyphoidProcess
Quote:
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Originally Posted by disarm76
Well, I surely am farming less since I got one last year. Sold for 1600e which good part was stolen when I got hacked
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